Texas Rangers +145 Write-Up

[Never Caught Up]

Darren Olliver (6-2;5.96) almost symbolizes the story of the Texas Rangers this year.

He was awful last year and was on the disabled list as many times as he had wins . . . which was two. Now he is coming back much like the Rangers short winning streak of late and he is doing it quite proudly.

In 10 appearances he is 6 - 2. In his last three appearances he has an ERA of 2.75 and is the hottest pitcher on the Ranger staff . . . not unlike the Rangers who are 6 and 4 in their last ten and are currently the hottest team in the American League West (based on last ten games). Texas is 5-1 away behind Oliver this season.

Oakland's Barry Zito owns a 7.56 ERA at home this season with a 1 - 3 home record. He is winless, 0-6, in his day starts with a 7.83 ERA this year.

Let's take the hot team (based on last ten games) in the American League West with their best starting pitcher at positive odds.

I'm playing Texas +145 . . . but then again . . . I'm Never Caught Up.

 

[NJO]

I hadn't given serious consideration to Texas, but what you've said here makes sense.

If I play this one, it will be Texas - Madjack agrees as well with you, and the reasoning is certainly sound.

What concerns me and may cause me to stay away:

Oliver 2-3 with a 9.25 ERA vs Oakland - ouch

Zito's most recent outing was much better - he may be getting back in form

Actually, given recent starter pitching forms and struggling bats (Texas .244 last nine games with 7 or less hits in 5 of those 9; Oakland .222 in June with 4 or less runs scored in 13 of 19 June games), I may end up going under the total.

How does Texas and Under sound?

 

[Never Caught Up]

I don't have an opinion on the total of this particular game. Betting under on any Ranger game carries substantial risk because of the Ranger firepower. This can be neutralized by opposing pitching . . . some of the time . . . but Texas has never had anemic bats. It is their pitching that has hurt them and Oliver is much improved.

Good luck whatever you do. I'll help you root for the under as long as Texas is ahead. (grin)

 

[Houston Gambler]

Like your logic Never.
Deciding factor for me is the +135.Big favs have hurt me last couple of days,but I didn't find any dogs that look as good as today.

 

[pepin46]

i would not worry too much about oliver's previous showings against oakland. he was just terrible against anyone earlier in the year.

although zito has shown some improvement in the last two games, era for era, based on their last few games, oliver still has a one run advantage on zito (i am using zito's last two only, otherwise it is worse).

the suggestion of an under is quite logical, as i see this one at 9 fair value, as opposed to the line of 10.5.

a close game, i would expect a 4-2, 4-3 game with texas on top.


pep

 

[Investment Executive]

c rodriguez gets day off behind plate....couple of other lineup juggles for both teams also....


TEXAS AT OAKLAND -- LINEUPS

TEXAS OAKLAND
AVG HR RBI AVG HR RBI
Bo Porter LF .295 0 3 Johnny Damon LF .226 4 27
Gabe Kapler CF .265 10 33 Frank Menechino SS .282 10 37
Alex Rodriguez SS .330 21 62 Jason Giambi 1B .344 19 59
Rafael Palmeiro DH .253 18 53 Olmedo Saenz DH .241 4 14
Andres Galarraga 1B .218 8 27 Jeremy Giambi RF .278 3 13
Ruben Sierra RF .318 7 26 Ramon Hernandez C .223 3 21
Scott Sheldon 3B .297 0 7 Terrence Long CF .265 8 37
Bill Haselman C .000 0 0 Eric Chavez 3B .248 10 37
Mike Young 2B .239 1 5 Mark Bellhorn 2B .171 0 3

Darren Oliver LHP (6-2, 5.96) Barry Zito LHP (4-6, 5.13)