Semifinal Matchup:
Syracuse vs. Texas, 8:35 p.m
East | Syracuse Orangemen (28-5)
Round 1: Syracuse 76, No. 14 Manhattan 65
Round 2: Syracuse 68, No. 6 Oklahoma State 56
Sweet 16: Syracuse 79, No. 10 Auburn 78
Elite Eight: Syracuse 63, No. 1 Oklahoma 47
Why Syracuse Can Lose: As good as it looked Sunday against Oklahoma, if the 2-3 zone isn't played as well against Texas, the Longhorns will slice through Syracuse and prevent Jim Boeheim from another crack at a national title. Syracuse can't afford to have its zone get spread too thin against T.J. Ford. If he gets in the middle of it, or along the baseline, the Orangemen might have to help off on him too often. That could free up too many shooters, such as Brandon Mouton and Brian Boddicker. Syracuse got a tremendous effort out of Carmelo Anthony with 20 points and 10 rebounds in the win over Oklahoma, but he was roughed up in the second half. Texas will likely try to do the same thing, and if Anthony isn't tougher, he can get pushed out of the action. Syracuse also can't afford to lose another lead. Ford is talented enough to carry the Longhorns back from a double-digit deficit and Syracuse's psyche could be fragile if it gives up a big lead in the Final Four.
Why Syracuse Will Win: Again, it comes down to the zone. Syracuse's zone has the potential to be so mystifying that it can make a team like Oklahoma look like it didn't have a clue how to run an offense. Texas relies so much on Ford to solve problems that if he gets lost in the zone, so will the rest of the Longhorns. Anthony is also having one of those seasons where he could carry this team to the title game. He's that special as a freshman. But the Orangemen continue to get tremendous role play out of Gerry McNamara, Hakim Warrick, Billy Edelin, Craig Forth and Jeremy McNeil. If that continues and they make the spot 3-pointers, the mid-range jumpers, or the crucial free throws down the stretch, the Orangemen have a great shot to win not only this game, but the title on Monday night.
Elite Chances: About even, and that's not a cop out. If Syracuse's defense is as effective against Texas as it was against Oklahoma then the Orangemen will win. Their defense is like nothing Texas will have seen during the season. And Boeheim has the Orangemen believing they can win the title. This team is dominated by freshmen, but Boeheim has always been a trendsetter. Who needs seniors? Why not win a national title with a bunch of teenagers?
Player To Watch: Anthony. All eyes will be on him Saturday as he plays on the sport's largest stage. He had a subpar first three games of the NCAA Tournament, but boy did he stand out in the fourth to get the Orange to the Final Four. If he comes up big then he could start making an argument to be a top two pick in the June draft.
X Factor: Warrick. The Orangemen need him to work the offensive glass, especially the put backs. If Warrick can find a way around players like James Thomas and Jason Klotz then he's got a shot of being a difference maker. Rebounding will be key in this game and Warrick is one of the game's best finishers, especially when it comes to shots that don't look like they have a chance to be put back.
South | Texas Longhorns (26-6)
Round 1: Texas 82, No. 16 UNC Asheville 61
Round 2: Texas 77, No. 9 Purdue 67
Sweet 16: Texas 82, No. 5 UConn 78
Elite Eight: Texas 85, No. 7 Michigan State 76
Why Texas Can Lose: Syracuse's zone. Oklahoma looked like it had somehow wandered into the Bermuda Triangle against Syracuse's defense. If Texas gets lulled to sleep in the same fashion, it will be early lights out for the Longhorns. The Longhorns have to shoot well to beat Syracuse and that puts pressure on Brian Boddicker, Sydmill Harris, Brandon Mouton and Royel Ivey. Ford can only do so much to set these guys up to make shots. James Thomas must finish or else the Longhorns will be in trouble. Texas' rebounding has to be sharp to keep Hakim Warrick off the offensive backboard. Texas will feel the heat of being the lone No. 1 seed. Syracuse has no pressure on it at all. Texas could wilt a bit if it starts to feel some of that heat.
Why Texas Will Win: The Longhorns have Ford. He was ESPN.com's national player of the year and so far has swept every other major award save the three to still be given out -- the Wooden Award, the AP, and the Oscar Robertson Award by the U.S. Basketball Writers' Association. Ford can carry the Longhorns to the national title because he dictates the game better than any other player remaining in the field. Ford's impact Friday and Sunday was clear again. He was the reason the Longhorns were able to beat Connecticut and Michigan State. Whenever the Longhorns needed something to happen, Ford was there to execute. If the Orangemen can't contain him then they'll lose.
Elite Chances: Even. The Longhorns and the Orangemen are almost even teams with both having a superstar in Anthony (Syracuse) and Ford (Texas). The key will be the role players. Boeheim has been in this spot before and won in 1987 to get to the title game, while Barnes is making his first trip to the Final Four.
Player To Watch: Ford. If you can watch any one player during the Final Four then focus on Ford. He's one of those special players who won't come around too often. He changes the game so much that he could be the most dominant player, even though he's usually the shortest on the court.
X Factor: Mouton. He has the ability to score 20-plus points and he'll be critical to Texas advancing to the national title game. Someone must make shots over the Syracuse zone. If Mouton can get the looks courtesy of Ford's drive-and-dish then he's got to knock down 3s. If he does then Texas could be 40 minutes from a title.