Texas

Looselugs

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Trying these tonight,

Trevor Bayne over Regan Smith -105
Trevor Bayne over Ryan Blaney +115

to win
TY Dillion 10-1

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Looselugs

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May 5, 2005
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Nationwide

adding

TY Dillon over Chase Elliott -115

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Old School

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NASCAR Picks for Texas

by Brian Polking, Monday, March 31, 2014 4:58:21 AM CDT FFToolbox.com



Track Info:
Length: 1.500 miles
Shape: Quad-oval
Type: Intermediate
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
View Average Finishes



After a trip to the slowest track on the schedule last Sunday at Martinsville, the speeds will pick up in a big way this weekend when the Cup Series visits Texas Motor Speedway. The 1.5-mile oval is always among the fastest on the schedule, and thanks to the track's multiple grooves, there is usually plenty of hold-your-breath moments as drivers battle side by side on the edge of spinning out.

While the high speeds make for exciting racing to watch, it doesn't always produce fantasy-friendly results. There have been more than a few memorable multi-car wrecks at Texas, especially on restarts when the field gets bunched up. Throw in the recent tire issues that have been wreaking havoc the past few weeks, and although Texas may have the layout of a cookie-cutter oval, fantasy owners shouldn't be expecting a walk in the park this weekend.



1. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

He owns the second-best average finish in the series at Texas, and in 21 starts at the track, Johnson has 16 top-10s, including three wins and five second-place finishes. He has also been brilliant in his last four starts at the 1.5-mile oval, compiling a 2.5 average finish and picking up a pair of victories. In the spring race alone, Johnson has six straight finishes of eighth or better, including four runner-up finishes.


2. Matt Kenseth, #20 Husky/Dollar General, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

No driver has been more consistent at Texas than Kenseth. His 8.3 average finish at the track leads all drivers, and in 23 starts, he has 16 top-10s and 13 top-five finishes. Kenseth has been even better at the track lately, notching six top-five finishes in his last seven starts and compiling a 4.6 average finish during the stretch.


3. Greg Biffle, #16 3M/Bondo, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Biffle has been on a ridiculous hot streak at Texas. He has logged 11 straight top-12 finishes at the track, compiling a 6.1 average finish along the way. During the stretch, Biffle has recorded seven top-five finishes, including his second-career victory at the track.


4. Kyle Busch, #18 Mars Brands/Interstate Batteries, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Busch is the defending winner of this weekend's race, and he has been on a nice little roll at Texas. He has four straight top-15 finishes at the track, and during the stretch, he has a pair of top-three finishes to go along with a 7.0 average finish. Meanwhile, Busch's 253 laps led at Texas since 2012 are the second most in the series.


5. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Aflac/UPS/Subway, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He has made 18 career starts at Texas, and Edwards has finished in the top three in a third of them. More importantly, he has been to victory lane three times at the track. Edwards also has four finishes of eighth or better in his last six starts at Texas, picking up three of his top-three finishes at the track during the stretch.


6. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite, Team Penske [Yahoo Class B]

After starting his career with eight straight finishes outside the top 10 at Texas, Keselowski has turned a corner at the track. He has a 5.7 average finish in his last three starts at the 1.5-mile oval, and he has finished worse than ninth during the stretch. Meanwhile, Keselowski ranks fourth in the series in laps led at Texas since 2012.


7. Kevin Harvick, #4 Budweiser/Jimmy Johns, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class A]

While he only has four top-five finishes in 24 starts at Texas, Harvick has been a reliable option at the track. His 12.3 average finish ranks fourth in the series, and in the last 10 races at Texas, Harvick has eight finishes of 13th or better, including five straight.


8. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil, Team Penske [Yahoo Class B]

After managing just one top-15 finish in his first eight races at Texas, Logano has been dialed in at the track lately. He has three straight finishes of 11th or better, and last year, he finished fifth and third in his first two starts at the track with Team Penske. If last year was a sign of things to come, Logano could be an elite fantasy option at Texas sooner rather than later.


9. Denny Hamlin, #11 FedEx, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Hamlin offers a nice blend of upside and consistency this weekend. On one hand, his 10.7 average finish at Texas ranks third in the series, and he has only finished outside the top 20 once in 16 starts at the track. Meanwhile, Hamlin is also a two-time winner at the track, and he has seven finishes of seventh or better.


10. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

His first-ever Cup win actually came at Texas, and Junior has been inching toward a return trip to victory lane for a while now. He has five top-10s in his last six starts at the 1.5-mile oval, including a second-place finish at the track last fall.


11. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Although he only has three top-five finishes in 16 starts at Texas, Bowyer never seems to have a bad run at the track either. His 12.8 average finish ranks fifth in the series, and he only has two finishes outside the top 20. Bowyer also has six top-15s in his last seven starts at Texas, including three straight.


12. Tony Stewart, #14 Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He is a two-time winner at Texas with his most-recent victory coming in the fall of 2011. He also has four top-12s in his last six starts at the track, picking up a pair of top-five finishes during the stretch. I always like "Smoke" a little better in the second half of the year, but he could do some damage this weekend.
 

Old School

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NASCAR Picks for Texas

by Brian Polking, Monday, March 31, 2014 4:58:21 AM CDT FFToolbox.com


13. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Kahne has run hot and cold at Texas, and as a result, he has a mediocre 18.0 average finish at the track. However, he is also a former winner in the Lone Star State, and has four finishes of 11th or better in his last five starts. If you are willing to sacrifice a bit of consistency, Kahne definitely offers top-five potential this weekend.

14. Jeff Gordon, #24 Drive to End Hunger/Axalta, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

He certainly has some upside this weekend, but Gordon has been boom or bust at Texas lately. He has three top-15s in his last five starts at the track, but he finished 38th in both starts at the last year. Meanwhile, he has five finishes outside the top 20 (including four finishes outside the top 30) in his last eight starts at Texas.

15. Ryan Newman, #31 Caterpillar, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Newman is a former winner at Texas, but he has been streaky at the track throughout his career. That being said, he has been enjoying one of his better stretches at the track lately. Newman has three straight top-12s at Texas, and he logged a pair of top-10s at the track last year.

16. Kurt Busch, #41 Haas Automation, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class A]

He has been a little inconsistent at Texas, but Busch has had his share of strong runs at the track. He went to victory lane in the fall of 2009, and he finished in the top 15 in both races in 2012. Busch has gotten off to a slow start with Stewart-Haas Racing, but the high speeds of Texas could bring out the best in him.

17. Martin Truex, Jr., #78 Furniture Row, Furniture Row Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Although he is still working out some kinks with his new team, Truex has always been reliable at Texas. In 17 starts at the track, he has 13 top-15 finishes, including five straight. Truex actually finished second at Texas last April, and in the last four races at the track, he has led the third-most laps.

18. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron's Dream Machine, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Texas has never been Vickers' best track, and as a result, he has only made one start at the 1.5-mile oval in the last two seasons. However, he did finish eighth in his lone start while subbing for Denny Hamlin last spring. Meanwhile, his current Michael Waltrip Racing team has enjoyed some success at Texas, so Vickers could be a surprisingly effective play this weekend.

19. Paul Menard, #27 Menards, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He has quietly been enjoying a decent stretch of racing at Texas. Menard has six top-20 finishes in his last seven starts at the track, and he has four top-15 finishes during the stretch. It also doesn't hurt that he looked stout en route to a top-five finish in the first trip to a 1.5-mile track this season.

20. Kyle Larson, #42 Target, Chip Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class C]

The rookie actually got his feet wet at Texas last year, logging a 23rd-place finish in the fall race. Meanwhile, Larson has been living up to the hype in his first full season in the Cup Series, and the experience he gained last fall should only help his chances this weekend. The 21-year-old just oozes upside.

21. A.J. Allmendinger, #47 Kingsford/Clorox, JTG Daugherty Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Allmendinger didn't have a ride for either race at Texas last season, but fantasy owners won't want to forget about him this weekend. After all, he has six top-15 finishes in his last eight starts at the track, and during the stretch, he has finished outside the top 20 only once.

22. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., #17 Best Buy/Valvoline/Zest, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

He had two very different experiences at Texas last year. Stenhouse finished 40th in the spring event at the track, but he bounced back with a 16th-place run in the fall. Considering how well Roush Fenway Racing as a whole has performed at Texas, Stenhouse should be able to challenge for another top-20 this weekend.

23. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

He has been showing signs of putting it all together at Texas. Almirola has finished 22nd or better in four of his last five starts at the track, and he has a pair of top-15s in his last three starts. Almirola actually finished a career-best seventh at the track last spring, so he has some sleeper potential.

24. Austin Dillon, #3 Dow Chemical/Cheerios, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class C]

Dillon actually made a pair of starts at Texas last year, and after finishing 33rd in his track debut in the spring, he delivered a 22nd-place finish in the fall event. Dillon should have a decent showing Sunday, but he doesn't have the upside or experience of some of the other sleeper options this weekend. At the very least, you should probably check out practice speeds before taking a chance on him.
 

Old School

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NASCAR Picks for Texas

by Brian Polking, Monday, March 31, 2014 4:58:21 AM CDT FFToolbox.com


25. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonald's/Cessna, Chip Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Texas was actually one of his better tracks early in his career, but McMurray has been in a prolonged slump at the track the last few seasons. In his last 10 starts at Texas, he doesn't have a single top-10 finish. Worse yet, he only has one top-15 finish during the stretch compared to four finishes outside the top 30.

26. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley/Dewalt Power Tools, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

He actually had a nice streak of top-15 finishes at Texas early in his career, but Ambrose's numbers have dipped the last couple of seasons. He has finished 19th or worse in his last four starts at the track, and at this point, his ceiling appears to be no more than a top-20.

27. Trevor Bayne, #21 Motorcraft/Quick Lane, Wood Brothers Racing [Yahoo Class C]

He has made seven Cup starts at Texas, and he has five finishes of 22nd or better, including four finishes of 18th or better. Granted, Bayne has never finished better than 17th at the track, so although his upside is limited, he does have a top-20 potential. Fantasy owners in Yahoo! leagues looking to save a start from the top C-List regulars should definitely consider Bayne.

28. Parker Kligerman, #30 Swan Energy, Swan Racing [Yahoo Class C]

Kligerman made his Cup debut at Texas last fall, and he finished a surprising 18th. In fact, he finished in the top 25 in both of his starts at 1.5-mile tracks in 2013. Kligerman is definitely a wild-card this weekend, but he has shown enough in his brief career to be worth a flier in deeper leagues.

29. Danica Patrick, #10 GoDaddy.com, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class C]

She hasn't been impressive at Texas by any means, but Patrick has been consistent. She has finished 28th or better in all three starts at the track and even has a pair of top-25 finishes. Her upside is very limited, but she should land somewhere around the top 25 Sunday.

30. Casey Mears, #13 GEICO, Germain Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Mears didn't have a great year at Texas in 2013, but in his previous nine starts at the track, he finished 26th or better. He still really isn't a great option outside of very deep leagues, but Mears will likely bring the No. 13 machine home inside the top 30 Sunday.
 

DeadPrez

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To win:

JJ +450
Harvick +650
Hamlin +1800
Kahne +2500

Good luck and happy race day :0008
 
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