Thanksgiving HSF Degen, FBS, FCS, & D2/3 Playoffs

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Record to Date:

HSF Degen Plays: 47-24-1 (+38.9 units)

FBS Plays: 117-122-13 (-25.1 units)

FCS Plays: 114-101 (-29.1)

*Will Update D2 & D3 soon...

Thanksgiving week means CIF Playoffs Championship Week here in Cali... Weather appears to be holding out for the most part in the State...

2 HSF Games for 11/22: Div 4 & 5

Chester -7' Fall River (59)

East Nicolas -13' Durham 42'
________________

*I will not lie, I did a big double take when I saw the 2 games listed for Wed eve HSF as this may be scrapin the bottom of the barrel with these two... I had to laugh because Div 4 & 5 in No Cal isn't the greatest rep of No Cal football... But here it goes anyway... (back in the morning)
 

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Two games on the post for tonight...

Like I mentioned above, I was thrown for a loop when Sportbet and 5Dimes listed these two games..... Never mind that the games feature 4 small school programs from Nor CAL (2 of the teams can't get any further north) but there are literally hundreds of games to choose from in Cali as most CIF games like to finish before Thanksgiving.... So why? I'm fairly clueless... But, I'm degenerate enough to bet on these games, so forget about it.

Played 3 units Fall River and Under 59 points.LOSS... Didn't quite work out the way I drew it up .*Both teams come in Ranked #1 (Chester) and #2 (Fall River) in Div 5..... And Ranked #17 (Chester) and #20 (Fall River) in the North Section..however, when looking at Ranking between the two you have to understand that the quality of football in the Div 5 Small Schools deteriorates rapidly after the first 5 or 6 teams, and while most football programs worry day to day about how much time the team got in the weight room or how far down the depth chart they have to go to replace a FB or SS.... These programs are literally one hit away from having to forfeit games or move the Starting TE to QB to finish a game.... I think you get the point. In some respects these athletes go through so much more than athletes and coaches from Bishop Amat or Mater Dei... Most players for these teams play Iron Man football (term used for 2 way starters and special teams)..... Teams in D4 and D5 are lucky to have 1 D1 College athlete as most of the players that have dreams of playing at the next level are bound for a couple of years at the Juco level.

So why am I preaching to the choir and boring you to death? This Chester Volcano team was responsible for dowsing my high school dreams of winning a CIF Crown in the 70's by ending a great undefeated season and a #1 Rank in Small Schools........To this day, I'm not exactly sure what went wrong but suffice it to say that it was the perfect storm, and after scoring a TD on our opening drive and the false appearance of pulling out another yawner, something went terribly wrong and that CIF title melted away as we got flat out-played.....So, when I saw Chester featured on the HSF rotation, it was a kick to the gut....

Like I mentioned, both of these schools come from the great white north of CA.... Most people will have never heard of the teams. Fall River is a small town, originally called Fall River Mills for its heyday in the 60s and 70s when Timber was the game and the town was built around the Mill Factory.....Back in those days, Lumberjacks, Buckers, Sawmill Workers, Logging Truck operators and heavy equipment, etc were a special breed and their offspring were big, burly kids that loved to hit.... As the years went by and logging industry came to a halt (over the "infamous" spotted owl joke) the schools and local economy took a hit as workers were forced to leave to find jobs......Since then, each year for many of these programs is a white knuckle hope as one or two injuries can shut a football team down for the year (in fact, I believe Chester had to forfeit its season in 2015 due to lack of players)

A lot of these programs run Option Offenses or Wing-T......with running the football the number one priority... Fall River averages 206.5 yards per game... The Bulldogs will throw as they average 132.6 through the air..... They average 31.5 points per game.... Defense allows 14.18 ppg...

Chester Volcanos have 1 loss on the year to an out of state opponent... They defeated the Bulldogs to open the season 38-12....the Volcanoes show little interest in passing as they average 318.4 yards per game on the ground.... Sr RB Tony Roger's (5'10 220 lbs) is a load and averages 121.5 ppg.... Their QB, Sr 6'1" 230 lbs, Sawyer Durkin is also averages over 100 yards per game (only throws for 31.4 yards per game)....Team averages 33. 6 ppg while allows 12.63 on D...... They have some decent size on the OL..

Just kind of a rule of thumb that win a team like Fall River loses early in season, they tend to perform fairly well with the knowledge of having seen that opponent before, so expectations are increased... Fall River has 2 losses, Chester has 1....Bulldogs dropped the opener 38-12 to the Volcanoes.... Their second loss was to Rival Modoc (Alturas) 21-20 while Chester beat Modoc 18-15......Both teams share a number of like opponents, but stats can be misleading as several of the teams were obviously functioning on a sputtering offenses and defenses..... I think Bulldogs have a chance to hang with Chester (although my hat is off to Chester's Size... QB Sawyer Durkin and RB Tony Roger's both have significant size for the position.... Hopefully, Fall River will have the Wing-T figured out this time around and make a competitive game out it..... Game is a late start at 7 pm so although weather is fairly clear, there is a chill in the air, so like the total to stay under as well.

Gluck
 
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Played 3 units Durham +13' and OVER 42'.LOSS while I recommend staying with the Under theme on many of these Championship games, this one looks a bit too low, as I set my number at 48....

Just FYI Geography lesson here, while Fall River/Chester are in the northern most part of Cali, Durham/E Nicolas play significantly farther south..... Durham is roughly 8 miles from Chico, CA and East Nicolas is just North of Sacramento.... So while both teams are considered Small Schools, neither program is out in the boondocks...

Both Schools know each other really well.... In fact, 3 weeks ago the two met to decide the League Championship (Mid-Valley) which also decided the Top Seed for Div 4 playoffs...
It's the 3rd straight year the two have met in the playoffs... Last year, E Nicolas won 34-6 in the D4 Title game (had defeated Durham 36-3 in league)...In 2015, Durham got some steam with a 23-16 victory, but faltered 38-20 in playoffs..Tonight's game is at Wahl Field in E Nicolas, where the Spartans have won 23 consecutive games... This is the 4th year in a row that Spartans have played in the Championship... They have won 36 of 37 games dating back to 2015, and have won 31 consecutive games to North Section competition, with the last loss to tonight's foe 23-16 in what was then a non-league tilt..

E Nicolas averages nearly 40 points per game, while the D allows a stingy 10 points a contest... On the flip side, Durham Trojans average 36.4 and allows 9.2 ppg.... E Nicolas features a 2-headed monster of RB Corey Taylor and Mauricio Bautista... (Taylor leads team with 1,104 yards w/14 TDs) (Bautista has earned 771 yards with a team high 16 TDs).. Soph QB Gavin McAuliff adds 631 yards on the ground w/9 TDs and has passed successfully for 1,246 yards with 14 more TDs... As a team, they average 7.7 yards per carry..behind a ferocious OL.....

Durham Trojans will have to bring their A game to win tonight and I'm having a difficult time getting the 38-6 shellacking 3 weeks ago, but these two do have 7 common opponents and throwing out the head to head game and you would be hard pressed to tell the two apart...... Durham does a fairly effective job of rushing averaging 243 rush yards per game and does pass for roughly 162.7 yards per game for total yardage of 405.7..... QB Adin Dubose is a 6'2" 190 lb big arm and will bring it down for a dual threat...

There's no doubt that Spartans have owned Trojans, but this looks like a good spot for Durham to hang and maybe pull off the upset.......

Gluck!
 
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Nothing like starting the week with 0-4 in the juice heavy HSF..... Shoulda stayed way far away from those two games Wed night, but hell, had nothing better to do.

Happy Thanksgiving to All Madjackers!! Let's win some Christmas Cash!

Toledo -13'.......5 units ..WIN ..*Early Start Reminder.... Been awhile since Rockets played for MAC Championship... I just don't think WMU offense can hold service as Toledo's offense averages over 510 yards of total offense per game.... Sr QB Woodside getting lots of accolades and is averaging 286 yards and is league's top passer... Last week against BG, he had 2 scoring strikes which set program TD record and that gave him 87 for his career... He holds school records for passing yards and needs 217 for hitting the 10,000 yard-milestone.

The early start will be WMU first start before 10 am while Toledo has 2 kickoffs logged at noon this year.... This intangible could effect a start (possibly sluggish)... It is Senior Day, so Woodside may may have some emotional junk, as might his RB Sr Terry Swan (has rushed this year for a personal best 1,045 yards w/11 TDs)....Woodside has passed for 3,151 yards w/22 TDs (only 2 INTS)... I have little doubt that the O Coordinator and HC will pull back the reigns while he assaults the record book at Toledo....

WMU averages 236 yards rushing which is #2 in the MAC... They will obviously be trying to run the ball while attempting to keep Woodside one dimensional and on the sideline sipping Gatorade... Keeping him riding pine will allow WMU to move the ball and clock on the ground... The formula says "Contain Woodside" and "Stop Run".... WMU has lost several athletes to injuries this year (lost 12 key contributors) Star Frosh RB (Redshirt) Matt Falcon is still waiting the go from the MRI results as he has been dealing with pain in the knee.... *WMU has 4 RBs Out... At one point the injury bug has 22 players out for the season.... Last week, QB Reece Goddard stepped up to fill in and had his best game in a 35-31 loss to NIU (he was 15 of 27 for 211 yards w/3 TDs)... He has had a great week of practice, however, the teams top WRs are out....

Toledo D got torched 2 weeks ago to Ohio 38-10, this would be a signature win for HC Tim Lester and would mean going bowling... I'm not convinced that WMU offense can stay with explosive Rockets with a Qb trying to rewrite the record books.. Gl
 
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A couple Of HSF games stick out at me...

Ottawa Lake Whiteford -14' Saginaw Nouvel (56)

*Michigan State Final (7 am pacific) Div 8....

*Ottawa comes in as a fairly heavy favorite, with good reason too... Bobcats have set season records for Total Offense and points scored heading into the Div 8 Crown affair... Bobcats won last week 50-21 to Mendon in a rain-soaked afternoon drenching... Bobcats still managed 356 yards of offense and have scored at least 50 points in 11 games this season, having combined tally of a whopping 695 points while also tallying 6,087 yards of offense as they head into their 2nd straight State Final on Friday...

Mendon had come in with a tough defense only allowed 6.5 points per game (Bobcats actually scored 7 points on the opening drive) QB Thomas Eitniear (36-4) as a starter has 43 of 62 passes for 1,150 yards w/14 TDs (only 3 INTS) and has rushed for 785 yards w/13 more TDs on 77 carries.... Last week, he was 5 for 8 passes for 111 yards w/3 TDs and rushed for 4 times for 25 yards with 1 TD *also had 1 kickoff return too... RB Jr Logan Murphy had 14 carries for 148 yards with 1 TD (has 1,599 yards w/9 TDs on the year with an 11.1 yards per carry) .... Bobcats are back on High stage for 2nd straight year, however, last year they lost to Muskegon Catholic Central 35-6....They are still searching for their 1st Crown.. As a team last week, they rushed for 254 yards and have totaled 4,826 yards for the season... 4 players have over 600 yards rushing.... Their OLine is considered Big, Strong, and Fast and might be the best in the State...

Saginaw beat Iron River West Iron Country (gosh I love these school names) winning 17-14 for a hard fought victory.... It was 14-14 at half but Nouvel hit its first field goal of the season in the 2nd half to escape with the win.... Kicker Jacob Burr connected with the 20 yarder to be the hero... This is the first trip back to State since 2011 when the Panthers won the Div 7... Last week, Iron County only had 40 yards of offense in the 2nd half.... QB Jayce Hansbeck was 10 of 25 passes for 87 yards w/1 TD and 50 rush yards (he has completed 145 of 244 passing for 2,377 yards w/25 TDs (4 INTS) and has ran for 145 times for 584 yards w/13 TDs).....RB Justin Kuligowski ran 6 times for 22 yards....

Ottawa scored 50 or more in 10 games this season... It's Defense has held opponents to fewer than 7 points a game... Bobcats worked extremely hard to get back to this game and position... Whiteford is 26-1 over the past 2 years... This is the only Final to match 2 Undefeated teams... Bobcats outscored opponents 695-162... Ottawa averaging 53.5 but Saginaw only allows 11.2 ppg so somethings gotta give... Nouvel is built for a fast Ford Field Turf with a very sophisticated offense built around Speed, Depth, and Arm strength of Hansbeck.......

Played 3 units on the Over 56......
Played 2 units on Saginaw +14'....*Not sure they can win outright but I like the points to keep Whiteford within range..
 

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Illinois State Championship..IHSA Class 1A
*8 am Start (NIU Dekalb Field)

Lena-Winslow -6 Tuscola (58')

*Lena-Winslow Panthers come in undefeated to play Tuscola Warriors, also undefeated... Comes down to a big contrast in styles.. Sr QB Ty Christman is (25 of 36 passes for 620 yards w/12 TDs)... As you can see, Winslow doesn't pass much and are perfectly happy grinding down an opponent with the 3-Headed Monster that consists of RB Rahveon Valentine (rushed for 2,025 yards w/25 TDs) and RBs Soph Sean Ormiston & Sr RB Gabe Schwartz, the 3 have combined for 61 TDs on the year..... The fact that the Panthers have only passed 25 times should not be misleading because they have scored TDs on Half of those 25 usually from the Play Action......

Warriors also at 13-0 are a Spread Offense that likes to score in bunches... Jr QB Luke Scuder (6'2" 195 lbs) has 2,991 yards of total offense w/38 TDs)... He's a tremendous threat with his arm or his legs... WR Dalton Huel has 45 catches for over 1,000 yards w/17 TDs (Scuders main target).... Sr OL Hunter Woodard (6'5" 285 lbs) is verbal to Okie St and TE CAL Sementi is 6'6" 202 lbs..... Tuscola has size on both sides of the ball..

I think Tuscola can compete in this one so I played 3 units on Tuscola +6.... Played 2 units on the Under...
 

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Couple of other plays (no write ups)

MICH Div 2 Final:

2 units on Under 38......


ILLINOIS ST Final.... Class 2A

3 units Maroa-Forsyth +4......*Lean to Under 51


INDIANA St Final Class A

Eastern Greene/Pioneer Under 56'.....3 units

Back later..
 

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I Catholic Prep -26 Pleasant Plains (54)

3 units on Pleasant Plains +26

3 units on OVER 54

*Sorry this is late..... Battle for 3A Championship at NIU.... Pleasant Plains is a big surprise as its the first time a #16 seed has advanced to the State Title Game....... The offense has shown balance with a strong run game (Sr RB Nik Samson has 1,420 yards w/19 TDs) plus Sr QB Ben Reinert has 2,114 pass yards w/25 TDs.....

IC Catholic Prep Knights are heavy favs but may have shown some vulnerability last week barely getting by Byron 7-0....Knights are looking to repeat as State Champs under HC Bill Krefft... Interestingly, QB CJ West is the back up Qb who replaced starting QB Luke Ricobene who had a season ending injury.... West hasn't missed a step though and Knights features a strong OL to lead the run game..

Its a feel good story for PP and I'm going to back them here to stay within the big number... Also, like the Over in case IC goes off..
 

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Michigan Div 6

Ithaca pk.... 3 units

UNDER 56..... 3 UNITS

Should be a Clash of Titans here.. Lumen Christi is defending State Champs (have 9 state Championships) the program has only finished below .500 once in the past 30 years (1988)

This is Ithaca's 7th appearance at Ford Field in 8 years.... Ithaca won State Titles consecutively from 2010-2013 & 2015... Should be an interesting game between 2 top 3 teams... Ithaca is dominant having won 13 or more games for the 7th time in 8 seasons... Should be a Slugfest and those type of games usually stay Under fairly comfortably... QB Joey Bentley is the wild card for Ithaca and may be the difference in this game as the Yellow jackets respond to his leadership in the huddle...
 

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Michigan Div 4

Grand Rapids Catholic Central -2' Edwardsburg (62)

3 units CCGR -2'

Lean to Under 62

Playing the battle tester CCGR here as this team is the returning/defending State Champ and undefeated Cougars..Last year Cougars beat Detroit County Day 10-7.....CCGR have given a total of 3 combined points in past 2 games... Over past 2 seasons, Cougs are 26-1...Last week, RB Nolan Fugate rushed for 262 yards w/3 TDs on 43 carries..

Edwardsburg is no slouch as the Eddie's have posted a 24-2 to rival CCGR record... Eddie's score at a ridiculous rate scoring 50 points per game... The ground game helped rack up 437 yards lw in total offense... as River Rouge were sent home 32-21....RB Nick Bradley led Eddie's with 103 yards rushing & QB Kyle Shrider added 94 yards with 2 TDs...... Edwardsburg made it to State Semis last year in Div 3 before losing to perennial power Muskegon...

I like CCGR to grind out another W in a relatively low scoring affair.. Gl
 

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Illinois State Championship Div 4A

Rochester -16 Morris (55')

3 units on Morris +16

3 units on Morris/Rochester Under 55'


*Granted I'm not from Illinois so just been getting up to speed on the various schools/mascots/history and other nuances that might make or break a team that steps on the field at No Illinois to grab their piece of gridiron lore that these athletes will one day sit around and tell tall tales of their time, for most, riding pine or taking stats for their Coach... A few will be standing just next to the D Coordinator or Offensive Coordinator trying to get their attention to perhaps get the call that will be their claim to fame....

Rochester hasn't been held to Under 31 points all season and QB Nick Baker has 52 TDs this season while only throwing 2 INT... HC Dereck Leonard is attempting to win the schools 6 State Title in 7 years... N Baker has passed for 3,678 yards and leads a fast pace Shotgun Spread that Trys to get 4 Receivers in space causing confusion on opposing Defense... Baker is extremely accurate passing for a 74% completion rate with 225 of 303 completion... Baker is starting to get noticed by D1 programs and was recently offered a ride to NIU (colleges have stayed away as he is only 5'9"... His #1 target is Cade Eddington (79 catches for 1,155 yards w/18 TDs)

Enter the Redskins of Morris, a team with not a lot of chances being given.... The school is only 53 miles from Husky Stadium... HC Alan Thorson has implemented a strong run offense with a behemoth O & D line (5'10"-285/6'3"-233/6'2"-307/6'6" 298)...thats some serious poundage.. QB Mitch Mayberry has quietly completed 66% of his passes but has only thrown it 108 times.. Morris gameplan is to take the air out of the ball, control the time of possession and limit Rocket TDs, while trying to keep pace offensively in points, but wants to have long 7-8 min drives and keep Rocket O off field....

Morris is largely an unknown because they have played in different Div (last year Redskins competed in Div 6 playoffs (twice) and Played Div 5 where it lost in Semis to Peoria 43-35....Morris could very well be the best team Rochester has faced... Morris RB Kam Dransfeldt will be relied on to carry the load (1,679 yards w/20 TDs rushing).. Morris has size both ways.. If it is close, I like Redskins chances here in a low scoring affair.
 
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Tonight :

St John Bosco -1' Centennial (76)

*Played 2 units on the Under 76

*Just for fun... Been waiting for this game and had planned on having a large wager on Centennial (Corona) +1' and OVER... However, my buddy (going to Viejo /Mater Dei game) didn't get back to me and I have no idea (nor does anyone not directly connected to the program) whether the McKee kid can go tonight or not... My understanding is that it's a game time decision, but he may not get cleared if the concussion he suffered last week is persistent... He took a pretty big shot to the head in the Murrieta Valley playoff quarterfinals (77-34)....As much as I wanted both teams to be at max health, gotta remember that it's just HSF and in the grand scheme of things not that important.

Bosco isn't exactly the same team I envisioned for this one either... Demetrius Flowers (RB) has had a shoulder injury all season and Re-al Mitchell had some sort of problem with the HC Negro (or his parents did) and he's been sidelined for the season which the PR Dept is calling an injury (yeah OK).

Bottom line, without McKee chucking around the pigskin, Centennial explosiveness loses a step... You can't replace 2,147 yards with 16 TDs and a 63% completion rate (even though he sat large parts of 2nd half blowouts out)... Team averages 58 ppg.. McKee is a 5 Star recruit and a dual threat nightmare, with 675 yards on 59 carries w/11 TDs...

On the other side of the field will be Bosco (10-2) that has played as tough a schedule in the country.... Bosco traveled to Florida where it lost a 9-7 decision to St Thomas Aquinas, beat St John (DC), lost to all world Mater Dei, beat Chaminade and a bunch of heavyweights in the Trinity League.

Centennial is the #2 seed (Champion of the Big VIII League) with its only loss to IMG out of Florida (40-20) a game in which McKee got hurt (ankle) and had to sit out a large portion of the game... The year before, Img escaped a 50-49 shootout that was one of the best games of the year.

This is the 5th Consecutive post-season meeting between the two, who've won the last 4 CIF Southern Section Div 1 Championship... Bosco beat Centennial in 2014 in the SoCal Regional.. Huskies won two CIF-SS PAC-5 Championship games over Braves, Last year, Bosco evened the series 2-2 with an epic 49-47 shootout in the semifinals... In four games, Braves have outscored Huskies 210-206....

Usually the game between the two is Supersonic and played so fast you can't keep up... Centennial has outscored opponents this year, 643-197...They haven't lost since September 2 to IMG.. Averaging over 530 total yards isn't gonna happen without McKee....

Should still be fun to watch though..... Gl
 

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Tanner McKee

Tanner McKee

He is on the field going through warmups... General feeling is that the backup will start but Mckee will play. I am trying to get more information before game time.

The kid for Bosco is a sophomore and has looked real good in two games. Man this is a big game.
 

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Final word

Final word

Wont know until offense takes the field. This is from people at the game in the stadium. He is on the field looks good but people are saying the backup will start.
 

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Tanner is out according to fox sports

Tanner is out according to fox sports

TANNER MCKEE IS OUT DUE TO CONCUSSION SYMPTOMS
 

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TANNER MCKEE IS OUT DUE TO CONCUSSION SYMPTOMS

Yeah, my pal finally called me but I assumed that the kid was out.... Like the under... Unfortunately, I'm steamed that I dropped a lot of cash on the VTech 2nd half and it wasn't even close (maybe that's a good thing)

Working on some D3 stuff for tomorrow...... Will check your plays after I do mine
 

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He is on the field going through warmups... General feeling is that the backup will start but Mckee will play. I am trying to get more information before game time.

The kid for Bosco is a sophomore and has looked real good in two games. Man this is a big game.

Bosco Super Soph DJ Viagalelei is hitting 66% of his passes covering 2,460 yards w/26 TDs (with only 2 INT) in the process also ran for 222 yards w/2 TDs .... Coach del Negro knew what he had...... All comes down to Re-al Mitchell who?
 
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