The 10 Sports Franchises Most Likely To Move

[vinnie]

Florida Marlins


Value: $256 million (30/30)
Value three years ago: $206 million (26/30)
Per-game attendance 2008: 16,688 (30/30)
Per-game attendance, three-year average: 18,800 (29/30)
Market size: 5.4 million (No. 7 nationally)

Baseball should be a natural in South Florida. It isn't. Despite a young, exciting team that unexpectedly contended this year, the Marlins can barely draw flies. Owner Jeff Loria must be questioning whether the state-of-the-art ballpark he's pining for will even make of a difference.

 

[vinnie]

Tampa Bay Rays


Value: $290 million (29/30)
Value three years ago: $176 million (30/30)
Per-game attendance 2008: 22,259 (26/30)
Per-game attendance, three-year average: 17,820 (28/30)
Market size: 2.7 million (No. 19 nationally)

As the Rays rocketed to first place this year, attendance rose too--all the way to 26th in the league from 29th. To replace the eyesore that is Tropicana Field, owner Stu Sternberg has proposed a public-private 34,000 seat stadium on the waterfront. If voters don't go for it, even a World Series championship is unlikely to save baseball in Tampa.

 

[vinnie]

Buffalo Bills


Value: $885 million (27/32)
Value three years ago: $708 million (25/32)
Market size: 1.1 million (No. 46 nationally)

The team's fortunes are growing at a slower pace than the rest of the league. Playing in outdated Ralph Wilson Stadium, the Bills are already hosting a handful of home games across Lake Ontario in Toronto. The spiffier Rogers Centre brings in more revenue; if Toronto comes dangling more goodies to lure the Bills full-time, Buffalo will have a hard time trying to win a money war.

 

[vinnie]

Minnesota Vikings


Value: $839 million (32/32)
Value three years ago: $658 million (32/32)
Market size: 3.2 million (No. 16 nationally)

Local taxpayers voted down a study last spring to look into public subsidies for a new stadium to replace the outdated Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome (opened: 1982). That means the team will have to dig into its own pockets for a new venue--or possibly hit the road.

 

[vinnie]

San Francisco 49ers


Value: $865 million (30/32)
Value three years ago: $699 million (26/32)
Market size: 2.2 million (No. 12 nationally)

The Niners have dropped four spots in the valuations rankings since 2005. Revenues are second lowest in the league. If a new football stadium doesn't rise in the Bay Area to replace either San Francisco's Candlestick Park or Oakland's McAfee Stadium (both ancient by modern standard), one of the two teams will undoubtedly move. The Raiders' more passionate fan base makes them more likely to stay--though quirky owner Al Davis has already taken them to Los Angeles and back once.

 

[vinnie]

New York Islanders


Value: $149 million (25/30)
Value three years ago: $160 million (12/30)
Per-game attendance 2008: 13,640 (30/30)
Per-game attendance, three-year average: 13,038 (26/30)
Market size: 18.8 million (No. 1 nationally).

The Islanders market size is a bit misleading, since sharing the New York stage with the Rangers and Devils keeps the fan base mostly limited to Long Island. And the passion of that fan base has taken a turn south since the club's glory years of the 1980s. The team desperately needs the amenity-filled new arena it's pushing for to draw the casual fans who aren't coming to plain old Nassau Coliseum. If it doesn't happen, a franchise that was once among the greatest ever (four straight Stanley Cups Cups from 1980 to 1983) could bite the dust.

 

[vinnie]

Phoenix Coyotes


Value: $147 million (27/30)
Value three years ago: $136 million (18/30)
Per-game attendance 2008: 14,820 (29/30)
Per-game attendance, three-year average: 15,130 (25/30)
Market size: 4.2 million (No. 13 nationally)

Despite the presence of the legendary Wayne Gretzky as a partner and head coach, hockey just doesn't score in the Valley of the Sun. Attendance has been consistently poor, and playing in municipally owned Jobing.com arena means relatively less revenue under the team's control. The club's original home, Winnipeg, might be a wise destination--a fresh start in a real hockey market.

 

[vinnie]

Nashville Predators


Value: $143 million (30/30)
Value three years ago: $111 million (24/30)
Per-game attendance 2008: 14,910 (27/30)
Per-game attendance, three-year average: 14,866 (24/30)
Market size: 1.5 million (No. 39 nationally)

Predators ownership went into the season armed with a contract clause with the Nashville officials stipulating they could leave town if the team didn't draw at least 14,000 fans per game to the city-owned Sommet Center. They wound up at just over 14,900 per game.

 

[vinnie]

New Orleans Hornets


Value: $272 million (27/30)
Value three years ago: $225 million (30/30)
Per-game attendance 2008: 14,181 (26/30)
Per-game attendance, three-year average: 16,726 (17/30)
Market size: 1 million (No. 51 nationally)

The franchise did better two seasons ago when they played most post-Katrina home games in Oklahoma City, but that market is now taken by the (former) Seattle Supersonics. New Orleans has lost about a third of its population since being ravaged by hurricanes Katrina and Rita, making its relationship with an NBA franchise tenuous.

 

[vinnie]

Charlotte Bobcats

Value: $287 million (25/30)
Value three years ago: $300 million (17/30)
Per-game attendance 2008: 14,717 (24/30)
Per-game attendance, three-year average: 15,211 (24/30)
Market size: 1.7 million (No. 35 nationally)

The Bobcats don't own their arena and have no naming rights deal. Attendance has lagged despite lots of ticket giveaways. And now Charlotte's banking community is hitting a rough patch. Las Vegas, anyone?

 

[TontoKowalski]

I woulda thought the Jaguars would be on this list. I mean Jax seems so sleepy... would think they'd jump ship for LA or somethin soon... san antonio