The 80-1 dream match parlay?

[Nick Douglas]

All year I've been hoping for an LSU vs. USC matchup in a bowl game. Even though I thought OSU looked better than LSU overall this season, I've resigned myself to the fact that OSU is probably bound for the BCS championship game.

Unfortunately, LSU ruined my plan for a USC vs. LSU showdown in the Rose Bowl by losing last week. Now if they tank vs. UT, a garbage Georgia team will sneak into the BCS ahead of them and squash any chance LSU has of being an at-large replacement for OSU.

The way I figure it there is only one way I can get my LSU vs. USC matchup: with USC as an at-large team in the Sugar Bowl. For that to happen, I figure I'd need to see three results on Saturday:

-UCLA beats USC
-LSU beats UT
-UW beats Hawaii

With Hawaii beaten that would open up 4 at-large berths for BCS conferences. Illinois seems locked in for the Rose and Georgia seems locked in for the Sugar. It also looks like Kansas would be going to the Fiesta. That leaves the Sugar with a choice between USC and the Va. Tech/BC loser. Now, call me crazy, but that seems like an easy choice for the Sugar Bowl. You either do a #1 vs. #2 dream match (in terms of team quality, not poll ranking) or you let LSU mop up some poor schlub. Seems easy to me.

I checked the odds and it looks like I'd get up to about 80-1 for the above 3-team moneyline parlay. My question to the more seasoned bettors on this board is: Am I an idiot? Am I hoping too much for this dream matchup and not seeing that there's no chance that this 3-teamer could hit?

Help me out here, guys. I am unfunded but I am thinking of throwing $100 in a MadJacks sponsor in order to try to make a quick 8 dimes. I figure it'll pay for my trip to NOLA if the dream matchup does happen. What do y'all think?

 

[taoist]

My question to the more seasoned bettors on this board is: Am I an idiot?

...you really don't want this question answered by the members of this forum, do you?? :shrug:


If USC loses to UCLA, why would that earn USC an at-large bid to a BCS game?!?!? :shrug:


I don't think that the parlay has any reasonable chance, but that's my opinion and it's your "dream." :mj07:

 

[Skipper]

:mj03: What can I say or do to make more people pay attention to me

 

[rubiconed]

I think you have a better chance in hitting the lottery !!! :142smilie :142smilie :142smilie

Just kidding, GL in whatever you do, but the payout would probably be higher with $100.00 worth of scratch offs !!! :mj07:

 

[G Money]

All year I've been hoping for an LSU vs. USC matchup in a bowl game. Even though I thought OSU looked better than LSU overall this season, I've resigned myself to the fact that OSU is probably bound for the BCS championship game.

Unfortunately, LSU ruined my plan for a USC vs. LSU showdown in the Rose Bowl by losing last week. Now if they tank vs. UT, a garbage Georgia team will sneak into the BCS ahead of them and squash any chance LSU has of being an at-large replacement for OSU.

The way I figure it there is only one way I can get my LSU vs. USC matchup: with USC as an at-large team in the Sugar Bowl. For that to happen, I figure I'd need to see three results on Saturday:

-UCLA beats USC
-LSU beats UT
-UW beats Hawaii

With Hawaii beaten that would open up 4 at-large berths for BCS conferences. Illinois seems locked in for the Rose and Georgia seems locked in for the Sugar. It also looks like Kansas would be going to the Fiesta. That leaves the Sugar with a choice between USC and the Va. Tech/BC loser. Now, call me crazy, but that seems like an easy choice for the Sugar Bowl. You either do a #1 vs. #2 dream match (in terms of team quality, not poll ranking) or you let LSU mop up some poor schlub. Seems easy to me.

I checked the odds and it looks like I'd get up to about 80-1 for the above 3-team moneyline parlay. My question to the more seasoned bettors on this board is: Am I an idiot? Am I hoping too much for this dream matchup and not seeing that there's no chance that this 3-teamer could hit?

Help me out here, guys. I am unfunded but I am thinking of throwing $100 in a MadJacks sponsor in order to try to make a quick 8 dimes. I figure it'll pay for my trip to NOLA if the dream matchup does happen. What do y'all think?

Yeah Ohio State has looked better than LSU this season :mj07: They would have 4 or 5 losses if the played LSU Schedule. You better pray for a Missouri win so your Trojans can get Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. USC will destroy Ohio State but USC doesnt want any part of that garbage Georgia team that is playing the best ball of anyone in the SEC. And to respond to your comment about West Virginia's gimmick offense. Yeah you are right the USC defense just dominates mobile qb's :mj07: I guess you forgot about what Vince Young did to them in the championship game and what Dennis Dixon did to them about a month ago. Pat White would do the same thing.:mj07:

 

[flapjack]

The way I figure it there is only one way I can get my LSU vs. USC matchup: with USC as an at-large team in the Sugar Bowl. For that to happen, I figure I'd need to see three results on Saturday:

-UCLA beats USC
-LSU beats UT
-UW beats Hawaii

With Hawaii beaten that would open up 4 at-large berths for BCS conferences. Illinois seems locked in for the Rose and Georgia seems locked in for the Sugar. It also looks like Kansas would be going to the Fiesta. That leaves the Sugar with a choice between USC and the Va. Tech/BC loser. Now, call me crazy, but that seems like an easy choice for the Sugar Bowl. You either do a #1 vs. #2 dream match (in terms of team quality, not poll ranking) or you let LSU mop up some poor schlub. Seems easy to me.

I checked the odds and it looks like I'd get up to about 80-1 for the above 3-team moneyline parlay. My question to the more seasoned bettors on this board is: Am I an idiot? Am I hoping too much for this dream matchup and not seeing that there's no chance that this 3-teamer could hit?

Help me out here, guys. I am unfunded but I am thinking of throwing $100 in a MadJacks sponsor in order to try to make a quick 8 dimes. I figure it'll pay for my trip to NOLA if the dream matchup does happen. What do y'all think?

Not that this would ever happen, not that I would I put one red cent on it, but in order for it to be what you are looking for, you would have to throw Arizona ML over ASU in there to make it a 4 teamer. UCLA needs Arizona to beat ASU to make the Rose Bowl, plus, ASU would have only 2 losses and be ahead of USC in the BCS polls if USC lost and they won. On the positive side, you would win much more on that parlay and could upgrade to a penthouse suite in New Orleans with your winnings.

As far as the bet itself, I think you have an excellent chance of UA, UW and LSU coming through for you. You will be undone, and rightly so, by your very own Trojans who should crush UCLA. I will be sure to look for you at the game Saturday. Should not be hard to find the dude decked out in SC gear cheering for UCLA.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I am unfunded

That's a fine euphemism, Nick. I've always called that "broke", but you've always been a half full kind of guy.

Good Luck with your moneyline parlay on what you wish happens. It's surely not the worst handicapping strategy you've employed.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

I have a hard time reading your posts Nick.

 

[Nick Douglas]

I should've known that I'd get no help from some of the dolts who've replied already.

As for the U of A vs. ASU game, I don't think that matters if UCLA pulls the upset. If ASU wins they go to the Rose Bowl. If they lose UCLA goes. Either way I think USC ends up as the top at-large BCS candidate from the Pac-10.

I normally try to ignore goofs in my threads but I have to give a shout-out to Bobby Blue Chip. It is true that I've had some hairbrained handicapping strategies in the past, but I'd wager that I'm one of the few people on this board who have tracked all of their own plays and are plus money in their gambling lives. I'm also probably one of the few who can afford to attend any sporting event they want to every year without ever accruing a cent of debt. Since you're from Illinois maybe you'd like to meet me in L.A. if there is an Illinois vs. USC Rose Bowl and we'll chat about handicapping strategies over a few drinks.

 

[dlvlsu]

Yep USuCk greatest team ever!! LOL
Picking up where Scott left off??

Gmoney glad someone around here has some sports knowledge!

 

[redsfann]

I'm also probably one of the few who can afford to attend any sporting event they want to every year without ever accruing a cent of debt.

what a :s7: you are. I'd be shocked if you made HALF as much in a year as I do, script boy.

 

[dawgball]

What would a Pitt/Oklahoma ML parlay pay out? This would be my "dream" wager, so we could play the Buckeyes for the NC.

Or would another team be able to jump us by playing an extra game this week?

I think this, more than anything, shows the flaws of the BCS. Georgia could go to NC game and win without winning our conference's regular season title, our conference division's title, or our title game.

 

[Nick Douglas]

First of all, dlvlsu is my new favorite MJ's member. Who else reads the most hackeyed, uninsightful, hayseed analysis that sounds like it was gleaned right out of the ether of your local sports bar and then cites that as, "sports knowledge"? I also love your use of exclamation points. When you realize that women use them three times as often as men, it reveals a lot about some of the posters in this thread.

redsfann,

...edited b/c too nasty. Even for you, redsfann...

dawgball,

I think the voters would randomly jump some other team ahead of you guys if Pitt and OU won. It's kind of the same thing as Michigan getting screwed last season. The good part about that is that the Rose Bowl would get 1st pick of at-large teams in that scenario and then Georgia could play USC. You'd have to come out to LA for that one.

For everyone else, I still ask is there anyone who thinks I'd have a remote chance of hitting that 80-1 shot? I am still tempted but at this point I am leaning against it.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

it's not like you are putting serious money on this so what does it matter.

if you want to put 100 on it then go ahead, don't lose sleep on it...its a 100 lousy bucks. if you are thinking of putting more than 100 on it, then you need your head examined.

the good thing is hawaii is a late game. if you somehow manage to hit the first two you can always hedge the hawaii game.

i don't know enough about the sec, but with lsu only being 7.5 point favorites its not out of the realm of possibility for tennessee to win. i don't see usc losing at all in a payback game and now healthy, but we've seen previously last few weeks how lame duck coaches get their players to respond.

i just don't see any way in hell hawaii is losing. if you've ever watched a game on the island you haven't seen anything to the type of calls they will get in this one. The WAC needs them to win. They are playing for a BCS spot. Wash playing for nothing. Boise won at Wash....Hawaii beat Boise pretty sound....i know that logic doesn't always work, but there are too many things going against wash on the island to even consider them winning. i actually think that wash will get the cover but see almost zero chance of them winning.


gl

 

[redsfann]

I'm also probably one of the few who can afford to attend any sporting event they want to every year without ever accruing a cent of debt.

Pussy. i read it. Any time you want to stop by Iowa--and someone coming from Wisconsin has a lot of room to talk.--we can settle this face to face. And if you mention my wife again, I will find you, that is a promise.

 

[Nick Douglas]

BDB,

It is a relatively small bet, but on principle I don't like throwing away money if I don't think it has any chance at all.

redsfann,

I hit a little too close to home, didn't I? Oops. I do regret talking about your wife. That was out of line.

 

[Cie]

I'm also probably one of the few who can afford to attend any sporting event they want to every year without ever accruing a cent of debt.

How badly were you picked on as a kid:shrug: I feel for you, Nick. It couldn't have been easy

 

[Nick Douglas]

Cle,

Never had that problem, but to be honest I really regret how mean I was to other kids in school. I was blessed with a quick wit and a sharp tongue and it has led to problems many times. Hell, what I wrote to redsfann initially would be a perfect example of that.

 

[redsfann]

Water under the bridge, dude. Sorry if I came off a bit strong there, but when you reference the wife, you step over the line. Say anything you like to me, I could care less--and sometimes I even have it coming...

 

[Nick Douglas]

redsfann,

Don't apologize. Calling someone a tool or "script boy" is no excuse for writing what I did.