It's baseball season again. Though I post far less often on this site than I used to, I still have very fond memories of betting baseball every day in the first few years after I joined this site.
I learned a lot about betting baseball from quite a few people on this site. Unfortunately, since I've been out of the game for so long I'd feel less than confident passing on any of the great statistical information IE shared with me or any of the great qualitative observations passed on by guys like fletcher.
I will try to post a few things if I come across anything good, but I want to start things out today on a decidedly non-wagering note.
With the start of a new season it is also the start of a new barrage of poor televised commentating. While come commentators do a great job of pointing out the intricacies of playing the game, few a very good with statistical analysis.
One commonly cited problem with baseball veterans who provide color commentary is their irrational fear of the lead-off walk. It has been cited countless times that the lead-off walk is especially dangerous because it leads to big innings.
Stat geeks often point to this table to swat down the argument about the dangers of the lead-off walk:
http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html
The table clearly shows that, while a leadoff walk produces slightly more average runs per inning than a leadoff single, leadoff doubles, triples and home runs provide far more runs on average.
My initial reaction is to heap ridicule on the color commentators touting the danger of lead-off walks, but as I looked at the early box scores this season, I am starting to understand their worry.
I took a look at every box score this year to find "big" innings. I defined a big inning as an inning with 4 or more runs. The reason I chose 4 runs is that 3 run innings appear to be fairly common, while 4 run innings only happen relatively rarely (less than 1 every 5 games so far). Also, from a gambling perspective, teams with at least one big inning are 16-2 this season (one winning team had two big innings in one game).
Thus far there have been nineteen (19) instances of 4+ runs in a single inning in the 2007 season. Here is the result in the first plate appearance of those 19 innings:
Out: 4
Error: 0
Hit by pitch: 1
Walk: 3
Single: 6
Double: 3
Triple: 0
Home run: 2
If you look at these numbers, you'll see that in 10 of the 19 big innings, the inning began with a runner reaching 1st base. Though only 3 of those 10 instances were from walks, it is definitely true that a majority of big innings so far this season begin with a single base rather than a runner advancing past first base or making an out.
Obviously this is a relatively small statistical sample. Also, it is certainly true that a far larger number of innings that start with a man reaching first base end up with less than 4 runs being scored.
Even though this analysis is far from providing any significant conclusions, it certainly does mean that having teams capable of producing a big inning greatly increases your chances of winning a bet. The big inning could end up coming from a home run, but having the ability to get a lead-off batter on first base may produce big results as well.
I learned a lot about betting baseball from quite a few people on this site. Unfortunately, since I've been out of the game for so long I'd feel less than confident passing on any of the great statistical information IE shared with me or any of the great qualitative observations passed on by guys like fletcher.
I will try to post a few things if I come across anything good, but I want to start things out today on a decidedly non-wagering note.
With the start of a new season it is also the start of a new barrage of poor televised commentating. While come commentators do a great job of pointing out the intricacies of playing the game, few a very good with statistical analysis.
One commonly cited problem with baseball veterans who provide color commentary is their irrational fear of the lead-off walk. It has been cited countless times that the lead-off walk is especially dangerous because it leads to big innings.
Stat geeks often point to this table to swat down the argument about the dangers of the lead-off walk:
http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html
The table clearly shows that, while a leadoff walk produces slightly more average runs per inning than a leadoff single, leadoff doubles, triples and home runs provide far more runs on average.
My initial reaction is to heap ridicule on the color commentators touting the danger of lead-off walks, but as I looked at the early box scores this season, I am starting to understand their worry.
I took a look at every box score this year to find "big" innings. I defined a big inning as an inning with 4 or more runs. The reason I chose 4 runs is that 3 run innings appear to be fairly common, while 4 run innings only happen relatively rarely (less than 1 every 5 games so far). Also, from a gambling perspective, teams with at least one big inning are 16-2 this season (one winning team had two big innings in one game).
Thus far there have been nineteen (19) instances of 4+ runs in a single inning in the 2007 season. Here is the result in the first plate appearance of those 19 innings:
Out: 4
Error: 0
Hit by pitch: 1
Walk: 3
Single: 6
Double: 3
Triple: 0
Home run: 2
If you look at these numbers, you'll see that in 10 of the 19 big innings, the inning began with a runner reaching 1st base. Though only 3 of those 10 instances were from walks, it is definitely true that a majority of big innings so far this season begin with a single base rather than a runner advancing past first base or making an out.
Obviously this is a relatively small statistical sample. Also, it is certainly true that a far larger number of innings that start with a man reaching first base end up with less than 4 runs being scored.
Even though this analysis is far from providing any significant conclusions, it certainly does mean that having teams capable of producing a big inning greatly increases your chances of winning a bet. The big inning could end up coming from a home run, but having the ability to get a lead-off batter on first base may produce big results as well.
