The Bowls

[azbob]

I'll add other games as I form some thoughts. I think the ealry bowls are tied more to motivation and coaches while in the later bowls, the match-ups matter. I also have a bias to the dog and the over early...the opposite in the later bowls.

Alabama v. Notre Dame
This game is alot clearer than I thought it would be given the man is offering the undefeated #1 team at +10.
ND has scored less than 23pts in 7/12 games...Bama scored less than 24 once.
ND's calling card is there defense...against much, much better competition, Alabama gives up fewer yards versus the rush and the pass and has a higher TO margin.
ND beat Michigan by a touchdown even though Mich had six turnovers...Bama won that game 41-14.
I think ND might be in a game with Kansas St or Oregon but, eveything they do well happens to be an Alabama strength on the opposite side of the ball. I like Riddick but, in the SEC, there is a Riddick on every team. If ND let Golson be creative, maybe he makes a few plays as I think the ND offense is better than what they have shown. Bama has four shutouts this year and also shutout LSU in this game last year. They did not play well verus Georgia and, I think, 2011 LSU is a better team than ND this year. Alabama 30-3.

Oregon v. Kansas State
I'd like to equate KS to Stanford and they do have some similarities but, are different in two ways that really plays into the hands of the Ducks...they don't tackle well and they do not have a very athletic secondary. That's not a problem versus Notre Dame but, against Oregon I expect an outcome much like the Baylor game (compare Baylor and Oregon as a strong indicator). Oregon is tied nationally for the most interceptions...Klein has thrown six in his last three games. KS has a chance to be productive on kick and punt returns but, unfortunately for them it will be many kick returns and few punts. Oregon 47-20.

Northwestern v. Mississippi State
Everyone knows NW bowl history. MSU limps in losing 4/5 although they have won five bowls in a row. Three of those losses were to top ten teams but, the last one was in the Egg Bowl where they were favored and lost by 17. MSU lost to an up-tempo A&M 38-13 and their wins came against Jackson State, Auburn, Troy, S Ala, Kentucky, Tenn, MTS and Arkansas...not a bowl team among them. I love Pat Fitzgerald and part of this is rooting for him but, I think the analysis supports the Wildcats. NW 38-31. (look for NW in the first half and then MSU to mount a comeback)

 

[layinwood]

For the record I like Oregon but not for the same reasons.

Also, I only see Klein throwing 5 ints his last 3 games. 1 vs. UT, 1 vs TCU and 3 vs. Baylor.

I think one thing people haven't talked enough about it that the one bad game he had this year(Baylor) was right after a game he was taken out for a concussion. All year long Klein protected the ball very well but the one game after he got KTFO he had 3. If it was against a good defense then I could understand but Baylor's d isn't good so you have to think some of it was because of his mental state.

Also, when I think of KState I think of a good tackling team.

 

[layinwood]

In the 10 games prior to Kleins concussion he only had 3 INTs.

 

[azbob]

Toledo comes into the Potato Bowl as losers of two of their last three after failing to win the win the Mid-American conference as the favorite. I don't think a trip from Toledo to Boise is enough motivation to cap a disappointing season with a win.

Utah State barely lost to Wisky on the road and their only other lost was 3-6 to BYU. That pathetic performance seemed to wake up the offense that has scored over 38 in six straight games.

Toledo starting QB is out and current starter (Dantin) led the team in the last game by throwing five TD passes but, that was in a close win (35-23)versus Akron where they were an 18pt favorite. They have failed to cover in last 3/4. Opponents have scored 20+ versus the Rockets in seven straight while Utah State held opponents under 21 in 8/11 games. Utah State fans have made the trip to Boise and the hometown fans may jump on the Aggie bandwagon since most will be aware that Utah is somewhere in the western part of the US.

Utah State has covered 11/12 this year ATS with the only lost in their last game (won 45-9 as a 38pt fav).

Line is at Utah State -10 and 58.5. I'm taking the favorite and the over in what should be a dominating win.

Utah State 45-17.




PICKS THUS FAR
Alabama 30-3
Oregon 47-20
Northwestern 38-31

 

[IE]

DANTIN TO START: Rockets senior Austin Dantin is expected to start at quarterback over Terrance Owens. This will be Dantin?s third start of the season and the 25th of his career.

He threw five touchdown passes against Akron in the final regular season game when Owens was sidelined with an injury. Campbell said this week that he expects both quarterbacks to play.

 

[IE]

you want mashed , french fries or baked azbob?

_______________



POTATO DONATION: The Idaho Grower Shippers Association will donate three potatoes to the Idaho Foodbank for each fan that attends today?s game.

With an anticipated attendance of 30,000, the donation could be more than 90,000 potatoes or up to 42,000 pounds.

 

[azbob]

I had the Ball State/UCF match-up at a CF -3 and the man is offering a Christmas gift of +7 for the Ballers.

State comes in winning six in a row although they have never won a bowl game. Keep an eye on the status of starting QB Wenning as he missed the last game with an ankle. I believe the line will drop if he is confirmed.

CF has lost to Ohio State and Missouri in additon to Tulsa twice. Those Tulsa games made them 1-2 in their last three and, even though this is a relative home game, I'm not sure they will be able to meet the Ball State level of interest in a business trip to St Petersburg.

CF QB is capable but, not dynamic although I do think they have an edge on special teams and, I hope to avoid a defensive TD going against me.

With that in mind, I think Ball State has a very good chance to win the game but, I won't turn down the seven so I am taking the points with Ball State winning 31-30.


PICKS THUS FAR
Alabama 30-3
Oregon 47-20
Northwestern 38-31
Utah State 45-17 (WON 41-15)
Utah State over 58 (Lost)

 

[capping-guru]

Hey! I didnt see your bowl plays til just now, somehow missed your post. Nice to see you posting a detailed thread, you are a very good capper.

I completely agree on your Oregon take and love NW as well. I will be posting more plays throughout the week. Naturally, you already know where I stand on ND.....we will agree to disagree there. GL this bowl season!

 

[capping-guru]

Oh and I am on Ball St. big. Combine motivation for the game and that this line is way off........love them in this spot!

 

[azbob]

ULL and E Carolina meet in what should be a high scoring game (total = 65). EC has trouble with mobile QB's and that is what ULL has to offer. These teams have each won eight games...equally unimpressive as the line-up of their victims include some of the worse teams in CFB. I think there is an angle in the losses each team has had as EC was blown out by South and North Carolina, CFl and Navy while ULL lost four...three to bowl teams.

ULL averages 35 a game and ECar 31. Each team has won four of their last five scoring a total of 74 points per game between them. In those same five games, EC gave up 40 a game and ULL a more modest 26.

Hopefully there is no "early rust" in this game and the layoff is short enough so we should be able to see a quick start. I'm taking the over but, not the side for right now. I'll predict a total score of 76.
ULL/EC over the total.


Fresno State (-12) quietly has had a very good season winning nine games. They beat San Diego State and a decent Air Force team and losses were to Boise, Tulsa and Oregon.

They have covered 11/12 this season (Utah State also achieved that ATS record) and have won five in a row. QB Carr has 36 TD's and only five interceptions. SMU has had a very erratic season with wins versus Tulsa and Houston and decent losses to Baylor and TCU.

Fresno will not take the trip to the Islands lightly after missing the bowls recently. They will want to showcase Carr who is an NFL prospect. I don't think SMU is completely outclassed in this game but, Fresno has proven to be consistently good regardless of the competition and have won their last five by 28, 17, 35, 16 and 33. I look for another double digit win.
Fresno State 45-23.


Mississippi is laying three to Pitt. Each team is 6-6 but, in their last seven Miss lost to A&M, Georgia, Vandy and LSU and they were in each game except Georgia. In looking back over the year, minus the opener Pitt has lost to what turned out to be pretty good teams (ND, Cinn, Syr, Louisville).

The problem for Pitt is Miss is a pretty good team. They ride the momentum of an Egg Bowl win and have beaten every team they were supposed to and were 4-1 ATS as the favorite (only lost to Vandy by one as a 2.5 fav...that was a bad line that most of us cashed). Pit is in this bowl for the third time in a row. (they lost badly to SMU last year after beating Kentucky the year before). No doubt we will find outselves cursing Tino Sunseri in this game as he is one of the most erratic QB's in football but, I feel better by the fact that he has not thrown an inteception since September 15th...those who know his history know that he is due for a three interception game here. I'll take the SEC.
Mississippi 28-17

PICKS THUS FAR
Ball State 31-30
Alabama 30-3
Oregon 47-20
Northwestern 38-31
Utah State 45-17 (WON 41-15)
Utah State over 58 (Lost)

 

[azbob]

West Virginia proved last year that they know how to prepare for the bowl game as they ran up 70 in the Orange Bowl. Their defense has played better in the second half of the season but, they have not faced a high powered passing attack in their last six games with the exception of Ok State (lost 55-24).

Syracuse brings a pro style offense and a very capbable QB. Bad offensive games or each team will still produce about 60 points so I'm going to count on the W Virginia offensive preparation and the tall Syracuse receivers being dominant to go over the posted total of 74. I'll predict a total score of 82.
Syracuse/West Virginia over the total.

San Jose State is laying seven. Their only road loss this year was at Stanford and they are excited about being in a bowl game. Their other loss was to Utah State and they have dominated a relatively weak schedule including wins over San Diego State, BYU and Louisana Tech.

I'll take that record, motivation and the fact that Bowling Green's strength is defense but, they have not faced an offense as dynamic as SJSt. Spartans have covered 10/12 ATS and come in with a six game win streak.

I'll take San Jose State to win and cover at 28-16.

ON MONDAY...in addition to my play on Fresno, I am also taking this game over the total of 59. I'll stick with my previously predicted score of 45-23.

PICKS THUS FAR
ULL over, predict 76 (WON 43-34)
Fresno 45-23
Mississippi 28-17
Ball State 31-30 (Lost)
Alabama 30-3
Oregon 47-20
Northwestern 38-31
Utah State 45-17 (WON 41-15)
Utah State over 58 (Lost)

 

[capping-guru]

You make so many great point in the SJ St.....many of which had jotted down but you and I have been on the same page in soooo many ways this year with our thinking, so it doesnt surprise me. I just hope that losing their HC doesnt affect them at all.

Agreed on the WV/SU over.......neither team plays D! GL!!:0074

 

[azbob]

Adding two plays based on this years peformance in the first half for each:

Louisville +8 (Florida has not been aggressive in the 1H)

Oregon -5.5 (Many teams have trouble adjusting to the speed and pace of the Ducks)



PICKS THUS FAR
ULL over, predict 76 (WON 43-34)
Fresno 45-23 (Lost)
Mississippi 28-17
Ball State 31-30 (Lost)
Alabama 30-3
Oregon 47-20
Northwestern 38-31
Utah State 45-17 (WON 41-15)
Utah State over 58 (Lost)
W Virginia over (Lost)
San Jose State 28-16 (WON 29-20)
Fresno State over (Lost)

 

[azbob]

Going to add Texas A&M as they are currently laying 3 to Oklahoma. I think the Aggies will be able to run the ball on OK and I don't think the Sooners will be able to match-up with offensive fire power.

I also will be on A&M in the first half of this game -1.5.

PICKS THUS FAR
Louisville 1H +8 (WON 24-10)
Oregon 1H -5.5
ULL over, predict 76 (WON 43-34)
Fresno 45-23 (Lost)
Mississippi 28-17
Ball State 31-30 (Lost)
Alabama 30-3
Oregon 47-20
Northwestern 38-31 (WON 34-20)
Utah State 45-17 (WON 41-15)
Utah State over 58 (Lost)
W Virginia over (Lost)
San Jose State 28-16 (WON 29-20)
Fresno State over (Lost)

 

[capping-guru]

Adding two plays based on this years peformance in the first half for each:

Louisville +8 (Florida has not been aggressive in the 1H)

Oregon -5.5 (Many teams have trouble adjusting to the speed and pace of the Ducks)



PICKS THUS FAR
ULL over, predict 76 (WON 43-34)
Fresno 45-23 (Lost)
Mississippi 28-17
Ball State 31-30 (Lost)
Alabama 30-3
Oregon 47-20
Northwestern 38-31
Utah State 45-17 (WON 41-15)
Utah State over 58 (Lost)
W Virginia over (Lost)
San Jose State 28-16 (WON 29-20)
Fresno State over (Lost)

Betting against FL in the 1st half has been huge dollars for you this year, nice job again tonight!!:0074

 

[azbob]

One play pending on a blowout for Alabama. A few observations from Bowl Season:

TEAM THAT DIDN'T SHOW UP
Start with the easiest call on the board as this was USC. You knew they didn't want to go to El Paso, they proved it during the week and did anyone really think Kiffin could do anything about it? West Virginia is the runner-up but, they were over rated all year.

MOST DISAPPOINTING PERFORMANCE
Fresno was bitten by island fever as I watched them play during the year and didn't recognize these losers to SMU. Prime example of how coaches and attitude drive result in the early bowls.

TREND TO WATCH
It depends on the lines you have but, by my count 12 games went over in the first half and then under in the second half. Runner-up...bet against interim coaches as it looks like their teams lose all ability to play with discipline.

BEST QB
I know there are alot of fans for the Heisman winner and new fans of Bridgewater (I am too) but, the most impressive QB I saw was Driphus Jackson a freshman from Rice. Can throw like Culpepper and run like Newton. Blake Bortles from Central Florida is my runner-up. He is back next year and I think both they and Tulsa will be good teams again.

BEST GAME
The first one when AZ came back to beat Nevada 49-48.

EASIEST CALL
Texas A&M -3 in the second half as the Stoops brothers (aka Dumb and Dumber) have between them never made an in-game adjustment that has ever helped their team win in a game where their talent level was close to their opponent.

BEST TEAM
Baylor overwhelmed UCLA from the start and if you look at their last half of the season, they were outstanding including their previously much maligned defense. They beat Kansas State and Oklahoma State in that run.

WORSE BEAT
Oregon State coached and played like it just didn't matter if they won or not. LSU is the runner-up as the players wanted to win, the coach didn't.

TEAMS I ADMIRE
Ohio (congrats to Frank Solich), San Jose State (back from a terrible program), Cincinnati (had every reason not to play hard), Arizona State (I still dislike the coach), Northwestern (finally) and Vandy (winning with smart players). Minnesota might be good next year if their coach can stay awake. Also love Stanford and am waiting for that call at the goal line versus ND to be reversed.

ON THE OTHER HAND
Still not impressed by Florida State and the QB, Virginia Tech needs to make some changes, UCLA kept talking as they were getting slaughtered, NC State went 7-6 with what is supposed to be one of the best QB's in the country so what happens next year? and the Big Ten should stick to playing each other and avoid Bowl Games and the MAC.

Does Bama play at A&M next year...can't wait!!






PICKS THUS FAR
Texas A&M (WON)
A&M 1H (Lost)
Louisville 1H +8 (WON 24-10)
Oregon 1H -5.5 (WON)
ULL over, predict 76 (WON 43-34)
Fresno 45-23 (Lost)
Mississippi 28-17 (WON 38-17)
Ball State 31-30 (Lost)
Alabama 30-3
Oregon 47-20 (WON 35-17)
Northwestern 38-31 (WON 34-20)
Utah State 45-17 (WON 41-15)
Utah State over 58 (Lost)
W Virginia over (Lost)
San Jose State 28-16 (WON 29-20)
Fresno State over (Lost)

 

[cole]

Good read. When talking about Baylor I am assuming you meant the much maligned defense, not offense. I agree and think they could have beaten just about anybody late in the year. Good luck

 

[Roger Baltrey]

Real good read and agree that those 2 RBs from Baylor are beasts are will be great next year. I will defend the Big Fraud a little bit in that the games they are taking the most shit for were against the #6,7 and 10 teams in country and they could have easily won 2 of them. The kid from Rice looked great but was throwing against the statues from Air Force.

 

[azbob]

Thanks Cole...I made that correction.

I think the Big Ten will be better next year but, it is pretty amazing that they can't recruit the type of dynamic players at the skill positions that seem to be coming off the bench as back-ups in the SEC and Big Twelve.

 

[capping-guru]

One play pending on a blowout for Alabama. A few observations from Bowl Season:

TEAM THAT DIDN'T SHOW UP
Start with the easiest call on the board as this was USC. You knew they didn't want to go to El Paso, they proved it during the week and did anyone really think Kiffin could do anything about it? West Virginia is the runner-up but, they were over rated all year.

MOST DISAPPOINTING PERFORMANCE
Fresno was bitten by island fever as I watched them play during the year and didn't recognize these losers to SMU. Prime example of how coaches and attitude drive result in the early bowls.

TREND TO WATCH
It depends on the lines you have but, by my count 12 games went over in the first half and then under in the second half. Runner-up...bet against interim coaches as it looks like their teams loose all ability to play with discipline.

BEST QB
I know there are alot of fans for the Heisman winner and new fans of Bridgewater (I am too) but, the most impressive QB I saw was Driphus Jackson a freshman from Rice. Can throw like Culpepper and run like Newton. Blake Bortles from Central Florida is my runner-up. He is back next year and I think both they and Tulsa will be good teams again.

BEST GAME
The first one when AZ came back to beat Nevada 49-48.

EASIEST CALL
Texas A&M -3 in the second half as the Stoops brothers (aka Dumb and Dumber) have between them never made an in-game adjustment that has ever helped their team win in a game where their talent level was close to their opponent.

BEST TEAM
Baylor overwhelmed UCLA from the start and if you look at their last half of the season, they were outstanding including their previously much maligned defense. They beat Kansas State and Oklahoma State in that run.

WORSE BEAT
Oregon State coached and played like it just didn't matter if they won or not. LSU is the runner-up as the players wanted to win, the coach didn't.

TEAMS I ADMIRE
Ohio (congrats to Frank Solich), San Jose State (back from a terrible program), Cincinnati (had every reason not to play hard), Arizona State (I still had the coach), Northwestern (finally) and Vandy (winning with smart players). Minnesota might be good next year if their coach can stay awake. Also love Stanford and am waiting for that call at the goal line versus ND to be reversed.

ON THE OTHER HAND
Still not impressed by Florida State and the QB, Virginia Tech needs to make some changes, UCLA kept talking as they were getting slaughtered, NC State went 7-6 with what is supposed to be one of the best QB's in the country so what happens next year? and the Big Ten should stick to playing each other and avoid Bowl Games and the MAC.

Does Bama play at A&M next year...can't wait!!






PICKS THUS FAR
Texas A&M (WON)
A&M 1H (Lost)
Louisville 1H +8 (WON 24-10)
Oregon 1H -5.5 (WON)
ULL over, predict 76 (WON 43-34)
Fresno 45-23 (Lost)
Mississippi 28-17 (WON 38-17)
Ball State 31-30 (Lost)
Alabama 30-3
Oregon 47-20 (WON 35-17)
Northwestern 38-31 (WON 34-20)
Utah State 45-17 (WON 41-15)
Utah State over 58 (Lost)
W Virginia over (Lost)
San Jose State 28-16 (WON 29-20)
Fresno State over (Lost)

Great read my friend! You really nailed some nice bowl games.....like beyond spot on buddy!

As for the Big Ten.....getting Rutgers and Maryland aint going to help things......like you said, they continuously get hosed on skilled players.