NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Head Coach: Jason Garrett
Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Brandon Weeden, Caleb Hanie, Dustin Vaughan (Rookie West Texas A&M)
Garrett and the Cowboys have not fared well in the preseason going 4-8 against the spread in their last 12 regular preseason games. Plus a total trend to watch for this preseason is that the Cowboys seem to just want to go thru the motions in their final game as the UNDER has gone 3-1 the last four years.
New York Giants
Head Coach: Tom Coughlin
Quarterback Rotation: Eli Manning, Ryan Nassib, Curtis Painter
Philadelphia Eagles
Head Coach: Chip Kelly
Quarterback Rotation: Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley, G. J. Kinne
There is not too much to look at for any preseason trends for head coach Chip Kelly. In his first year the Eagles went 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. However, the OVER went 3-1 in those games, which is something to keep an eye on as the Eagles preseason begins. Also, one thing that carried over from the Reid era is that the Eagles again lost their first preseason game which makes them 1-8 against the spread in the last nine opening preseason games. Philadelphia?s preseason opener this year is on Aug. 8 at Chicago.
Washington Redskins
Head Coach: Jay Gruden
Quarterback Rotation: Robert Griffin III, Kirk Cousins, Colt McCoy
Some solid trends going for the Redskins that Jay Gruden may went to build on. Washington went a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread in last year?s preseason games, and they also have been money in their dress rehearsal games the last four years going 4-0 against the spread. This year?s dress rehearsal game for the Redskins is on Aug. 23 at Baltimore.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Head Coach: Marc Trestman
Quarterback Rotation: Jay Cutler, Jimmy Clausen, Jordan Palmer, David Fales (Rookie San Jose State)
In Trestman?s first year as head coach of the Bears ? his prior offensive coordinator experience paid off as three of the four Bears games saw the OVER connect. In their dress rehearsal game against the Raiders the Bears scored a whopping 34 points. So let?s look for more wide-open play from Chicago as we head into this year?s preseason.
Detroit Lions
Head Coach: Jim Caldwell
Quarterback Rotation: Matthew Stafford, Kellen Moore, Dan Orlovsky, James Franklin (Rookie Missouri)
In the past two preseasons the Lions saw the OVER go a money making 6-2 ? something I feel will continue with Caldwell now the Lions new head coach. Let?s not forget Caldwell tutored a pair of quality quarterbacks Peyton Manning and Joe Flacco ? So offense is his forte. Just keep an eye on how the Lions come out offensively in their early preseason games.
Green Bay Packers
Head Coach: Mike McCarthy
Quarterback Rotation: Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn, Scott Tolzien, Chase Rettig (Rookie Boston College)
Mike McCarthy and the Packers used to have a great preseason trend where the OVER hit at a super high rate ? however the oddsmakers have finally caught up with this trend and now overvalue the OVER posted in the Green Bay games ? resulting in the UNDER going 6-2 in the past two preseasons. So I would recommend that you take advantage of these high posted totals and lean towards the UNDER going forward. Plus another trend to watch this preseason is that the Packers have lost their opening preseason game the past four years. This year?s opener is on Aug. 9 at Tennessee.
Minnesota Vikings
Head Coach: Mike Zimmer
Quarterback Rotation: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater (Rookie Louisville)
With Mike Zimmer taking over as coach of the Vikings, look for defense to be the forefront this preseason as Zimmer has been a defensive coordinator the last 14 years in the NFL. In his last two seasons as coordinator of the Bengals the UNDER was the easy winner in the Bengals dress rehearsal games. Look for this to continue this year in the Vikings dress rehearsal game on Aug. 23 at Kansas City.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Head Coach: Mike Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Ryan, T.J. Yates, Sean Renfree, Jeff Mathews (Rookie Cornell)
One of my favorite preseason plays goes here on the Falcons as in their 'dress rehearsal' game. In the last nine years, the Falcons have gone 8-1 outscoring their opposition 203-88 not counting the 2011 abnormal preseason. This year?s 'dress rehearsal' game for the Falcons will be on Aug. 23 when they play Tennessee at home. After last year?s down season I really look for the Falcons to be very motivated coming into this dress rehearsal game and use it as a starting point to get the season on a winning note. However if we take a look at the whole body of work for the Falcons over the past two preseasons we will see that they have lost seven of their eight preseason games played ? with their only win coming in the above mentioned dress rehearsal game. And one last thing about Atlanta here is that in their first preseason game the past three years they have been dominated losing all while allowing 34, 31, and 28 points, which also made all three of these games fly OVER the posted total.
Carolina Panthers
Head Coach: Ron Rivera
Quarterback Rotation: Cam Newton (Injury- Ankle), Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard, Joe Webb
A couple of trends have started to develop with Rivera settling in as head coach in the preseason for the Panthers. First off Rivera seems to want to look good in his dress rehearsal game going 2-0 the past two years. While in the fourth and final game, Rivera seems to just want to get this game over with as the UNDER has been the winning play the past two years. Both of these preseason finales have been against the Steelers which they finish up again on Aug. 28.
New Orleans Saints
Head Coach: Sean Payton
Quarterback Rotation: Drew Brees, Ryan Griffin, Luke McCown, Logan Kilgore (Rookie Middle Tennessee State)
A strong preseason trend we can follow with the Saints as their high octane offense sure gears up as the preseason progresses. In the past four seasons the Saints have seen the OVER go a perfect 8-0 in their last two preseason games (Week 3 & 4) of the year with 51, 57, 60, 41, 51, 61, 54, and 45 points scored. This year the Saints finish up with Indianapolis on Aug. 23 and Baltimore on Aug. 28.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Head Coach: Lovie Smith
Quarterback Rotation: Mike Glennon, Mike Kafka, Josh McCown, Alex Tanney
In his last two years in Chicago Lovie Smith had winning preseasons going 6-2 against the spread. I can see him wanting to get a winning attitude right off the bat in Tampa Bay ? so let?s look for the Buccaneers to be a team to bet this preseason. Plus the Buccaneers used to be one of my favorite trend plays in the preseason as they were 6-2 against the spread in their first preseason game ? this might be something to look into as Smith will want to win his first game as the Buccaneers head coach, especially in front of the home crowd on Aug. 8th against the Eagles.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Head Coach: Bruce Arians
Quarterback Rotation: Carson Palmer, Drew Stanton, Ryan Lindley, Logan Thomas (Rookie Virginia Tech)
Only one year of stats for Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians for us to look at, however Arizona went 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its four preseasons games from a year ago, with the UNDER also going 3-1. Something to keep an eye out for as this year?s preseason begins.
San Francisco 49ers
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Colin Kaepernick, Josh Johnson, Blaine Gabbert, McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Kory Faulkner (Rookie Southern Illinois)
Whether its preseason or regular season games, Jim Harbaugh wants to win every time his team takes the field. This sure has been a solid money maker the last two preseasons as the 49ers have gone 6-2 both straight up and against the spread. It is also important to post here that in this same timeframe San Francisco has seen the UNDER be the right play on both of their first two preseason games the past two years ? while just the opposite is true as in their dress rehearsal game and final preseason game the OVER was the winning play. Making for a solid 8-0 run for us to look forward to this year.
Seattle Seahawks
Head Coach: Pete Carroll
Quarterback Rotation: Russell Wilson, Tarvaris Jackson, Terrelle Pryor, B. J. Daniels
Usually we like to fade the Super Bowl champions in the proceeding preseason ? as how can a team be up for these early meaningless games. However if there is one exception it?s sure the Seahawks under Carroll ? as Seattle is a money making 11-1 both straight up and against the spread the past three years. Top rated preseason trend in effect here especially when you throw in this year?s quarterback rotation.
St. Louis Rams
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher
Quarterback Rotation: Sam Bradford, Shaun Hill, Garrett Gilbert (Rookie SMU), Austin Davis
In his return to coaching Jeff Fisher has already shown us a trend that can help make us some money this preseason ? as the OVER has gone 6-2 in the eight preseason games the Rams have played with Fisher calling the shots. The one other trend I found was that Fisher sure tries in the Rams dress rehearsal game where St. Louis is a perfect 2-0 ATS with both of these games being played on the road ? this year?s dress rehearsal game is on the road again as the Rams visit Cleveland on Aug. 23.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Head Coach: Doug Marrone
Quarterback Rotation: E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Dennis Dixon, Thad Lewis
Doug Marrone enters his second season as Buffalo?s head coach. He?s been in the NFL for seven years, from 2006-08 he served as the offensive coordinator of the New Orleans Saints after a four-year span as the offensive line coach of the New York Jets (2002-05). With this being only Doug Marrone?s second year as a Head Coach: we don?t have much to go on for his preseason trends ? however I?ve isolated something that may give us a solid play for the Bills this preseason. Since he's still a fairly new head coach, I can see Marrone wanting to impress the home crowd in his first home game this preseason and this is backed by a strong recent trend for the Bills in the preseason ? as Buffalo is 4-0 against the spread in their first home preseason game of the year last four years.
New York Jets
Head Coach: Rex Ryan
Quarterback Rotation: Geno Smith, Michael Vick, Matt Simms, Tajh Boyd (Rookie Clemson)
The Jets have been consistent in their first and last preseason games over the last four years. Rex Ryan has never put any effort in the Jets opening preseason game, evidenced by their 0-4 against the spread. While in their last preseason game of the year Ryan and the Jets defensive coaches sure take the day off as the Jets have seen the OVER go 4-0 since 2010. So right off the bat here we have a perfect 8-0 trend on the Jets to keep an eye on this preseason.
Miami Dolphins
Head Coach: Joe Philbin
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Moore, Pat Devlin, Brock Jensen ? (Rookie - North Dakota State)
This will be Philbin?s third year as head coach of the Dolphins, after going over his first two preseason campaigns, it?s very apparent that he puts very little effort into winning these meaningless games. In his first nine preseason games the Dolphins are a woeful 1-8 against the spread with their only win coming against the hapless Jaguars. So let?s make the Dolphins a definite fade this preseason.
New England Patriots
Head Coach: Bill Belichick
Quarterback Rotation: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Garoppolo (Rookie - Eastern Illinois)
Here is one of my top rated preseason plays, and it focuses on coach Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Belichick has never liked to give anything away to his opponents ? just look at one of his press conferences to see what I mean ? well something shows up in the preseason every year from New England that we can take advantage of. Week 3 of the preseason is when all teams do their dress rehearsal for the season with all starters on both sides of the ball playing into the third quarter. Well again Belichick doesn?t want his regular season Week 1 opponent to get any films to look at so he doesn?t take this game seriously ? and it show shows up in the point spread logs as the Patriots over the past six seasons are a dismal 0-6 against the spread in this situation. Just to give you an example of how strong this is in last year?s dress rehearsal against the Lions, the Patriots were crushed 40-9 as one-point underdogs. So mark down Aug. 22 on your calendar as the Patriots host Carolina in their dress rehearsal game this year.
AFC North
Cleveland Browns
Head Coach: Mike Pettine
Quarterback Rotation: Brian Hoyer, Johnny Manziel (R Texas A&M), Tyler Thigpen, Connor Shaw (Rookie South Carolina)
With Pettine?s specialty being defense ? let?s keep an eye out on the Browns UNDER this preseason ? as he may concentrate on what he knows best trying to build the team. Another strong trend that has developed for Cleveland is its dress rehearsal games. The Browns are 0-3, losing all of these games both straight up and against the spread with the UNDER also going 3-0. One other note ? when you see that Johnny Football will be getting the majority of the playing time in any of these Cleveland preseason games ? I feel the Browns will be a solid bet ? as his style will be perfect to easily move the ball up and down the field especially against the substitutes.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin
Quarterback Rotation: Ben Roethlisberger, Bruce Gradkowski, Landry Jones, Brandon Kay (Rookie Cincinnati)
The new CBA rules sure took its effect on the Steelers in last year?s preseason ? with Tomlin not being able to incorporate his usual intense training camp, and it showed on the field as the Steelers went 0-4 both straight up and against the spread. Something to watch for as the preseason starts this year. Plus the Steelers are on a 0-4 run in their preseason home games over the past two years all as a favorite, and 1-7 ATS overall.
Cincinnati Bengals
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis
Quarterback Rotation: Andy Dalton, Jason Campbell, AJ McCarron (Rookie Alabama), Matt Scott
With the Bengals being a consistent playoff team ? Lewis doesn?t take these preseason games too seriously ? however a strong trend has developed in the Bengals first home preseason game over the past four years ? where the Bengals are a perfect 4-0 both straight up and against the spread ? so it sure looks like Lewis wants to win this first home game for the fans. The Bengals first home game this year is on Aug. 14 versus the Jets.
Baltimore Ravens
Head Coach: John Harbaugh
Quarterback Rotation: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Keith Wenning (Rookie Ball State)
Here we have another team that has been effected with the new CBA rule changes ? Harbaugh and the Ravens used to be a strong bet in the preseason as they mostly played low-scoring games making the UNDER the way to go. However with the less intense training camp routines now in place, the Ravens have seen the OVER go a money making 7-1 the past two preseasons. Strong trend to watch for again this year!!!
AFC South
Houston Texans
Head Coach: Bill O?Brien
Quarterback Rotation: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum, Tom Savage (R Pittsburgh)
O?Brien?s offensive experience may help us make some money with the Texans this preseason ? As I found that Houston as seen the OVER be the winning play in their first preseason game the last 4 years. Plus the Texans have seen the OVER go 6-2 the past two years. So let?s look for some high-scoring games form the Texans this preseason.
Indianapolis Colts
Head Coach: Chuck Pagano
Quarterback Rotation: Andrew Luck, Matt Hasselbeck, Chandler Harnish
With Pagano as head coach, the Colts sure like to play a very wide-open game in their first preseason game of the year ? as over the past two years a combined average of 52 points have been scored. And what a perfect opponent to open up with this year as the Jets, who have watched the OVER go 4-0 in their preseason games from a year ago. This year?s opening preseason game against the Jets will be played on Aug. 7.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Head Coach: Gus Bradley
Quarterback Rotation: Chad Henne, Blake Bortles (Rookie UCF), Ricky Stanzi, Stephen Morris (Rookie Miami)
The Jaguars have lost their dress rehearsal game in 2011 and 2012, and Gus Bradley sure continued this trend in his first year as head coach in 2013 as the Jaguars gave up 34 points against the Eagles in another double-digit loss. Let?s look for this strong trend to continue this season as Jacksonville pays a visit to Detroit on Aug. 22 for their dress rehearsal game. Plus, I have to add here that the Jaguars sure weren?t ready to play in their opening preseason game with Bradley as they were dominated at home against the Dolphins 27-3. Jacksonville?s first preseason game this year is on Aug. 8 against the Buccaneers (Tampa Bay is one of my strongest preseason plays as its a money making 6-2 ATS in its first preseason game) a perfect fit here against an underachieving Jaguars squad.
Tennessee Titans
Head Coach: Ken Whisenhunt
Quarterback Rotation: Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst, Tyler Wilson, Zach Mettenberger (Rookie LSU)
The Titans lost three of their four preseason games last season ? this may be something to watch for again this year ? as in his last year as the head coach of the Cardinals back in 2012, Whisenhunt went a perfect 0-4 against the spread. Plus Whisenhunt in his final two years as head coach in the preseason saw six of his last eight games go OVER the posted total.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Head Coach: John Fox
Quarterback Rotation: Payton Manning, Brock Osweiler, Zac Dysert, Bryn Renner (Rookie North Carolina)
Strong trend has developed since John Fox has taken over as the head coach of the Broncos, as Denver has come out strong in their opening preseason game going a perfect 3-0 with all three wins as an underdog. This preseason the Broncos open up against the Super Bowl champions Seahawks ? who may have the Super Bowl hangover coming into this preseason. Plus the opposite is sure true in the Broncos dress rehearsal game under Fox where Denver has failed to cover the spread in all three games. This year?s dress rehearsal game is on Aug. 23 against Houston.
Kansas City Chiefs
Head Coach: Andy Reid
Quarterback Rotation: Alex Smith, Chase Daniel, Tyler Bray, Aaron Murray (Rookie Georgia)
Kansas City has been one of the best fade teams in the preseason going an incredible 6-23 against the spread over the past seven years. I definitely look for more of the same this year as I look for Andy Reid to continue the tradition in Kansas City of not caring about these preseason games. Take a close look at the Chiefs first preseason game this year as Reid is 1-8 against the spread in his last nine opening preseason games in Philadelphia and Kansas City. Kansas City opens up this year at home against Cincinnati on Aug. 7.
Oakland Raiders
Head Coach: Dennis Allen
Quarterback Rotation: Matt Schaub, Derek Carr (Rookie Fresno State), Matt McGloin, Trent Edwards
Allen has continued the Raiders losing ways in the preseason already losing six of the Raiders eight preseason games with him calling the shots. Plus no matter whom the head coach is of Oakland they always seem to finish the preseason on a down note ? as in the past seven years they are a perfect 0-7 against the spread in their last preseason game of the year. This year?s finale for the Raiders is on Aug. 28 against the Seahawks at home.
San Diego Chargers
Head Coach: Mike McCoy
Quarterback Rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Brad Sorensen
Now in his second season in San Diego, you can?t forget that Mike McCoy came from Denver where he was the offensive coordinator for the high powered Broncos offense. I?m curious to see what numbers the oddsmakers put up on the San Diego totals this preseason. As last preseason the Chargers under McCoy saw the OVER go 3-1. With McCoy?s offensive background watch for San Diego to continue their high scoring ways this preseason.
