THE DRIVE FOR 65....

[Old School]

February 27, 2009


Mike Huguenin
Rivals.com College Basketball Editor


We're less than three weeks from "Selection Sunday" (March 15), and we're now going to have two bracket projections per week ? one on Tuesdays, one on Fridays.

It's important to note that this is a projection, not how the field would look if it were decided today.

The Tuesday projections have comments on each team; the Friday projections talk about the seedings as a group.

Teams are grouped by projected seed and are listed from strongest to weakest within that seed. At the bottom is a breakdown by league of the number of projected bids and some information on the makeup of the field, the selection committee and the sites.

(Note: All RPI figures are through Wednesday's games come from collegerpi.com.)

Rivals.com Drive for 65
No. 1 seeds
1. North Carolina won
2. Connecticut /host ND 2/28 won
3. Pittsburgh at SH 2/28 won
4. Oklahoma won

The buzz: All of these teams have a chance to double-up ? win their regular-season titles as well as their tournament titles. But there also are two Big East teams in here, meaning the one that doesn't win the regular-season title may need to get to the tournament final if it wants a No. 1 seed.

No. 2 seeds
5. Louisville /host Marq. 3/1
6. Michigan State /at Ill. 3/1
7. Duke /at Va. Tech 2/28 won
8. Memphis /host So.Miss 2/28 won
The buzz: Louisville and Memphis have outside shots at a No. 1 seed, while Duke and Michigan State are more likely to end up as No. 3s than No. 1s.

No. 3 seeds
9. Kansas host Mo. 3/1
10. Villanova lost
11. Wake Forest won
12. Missouri /at Kan 3/1
The buzz: Kansas and Missouri are in the running for the Big 12 regular-season title, and each could end up a seed higher. Wake and Villanova are hoping to play their first- and second-round games close to campus ? in Greensboro, N.C., for Wake and in Philadelphia for 'Nova.

No. 4 seeds
13. Purdue win
14. Clemson lost
15. Marquette at LOU 3/1
16. Washington won
The buzz: Washington is in good shape to win the Pac-10 regular-season crown, while Purdue blew its shot at the Big Ten regular-season title by losing to Michigan on Thursday night. Clemson and Marquette are playing for seeding from here on out.

No. 5 seeds
17. Illinois host Mich St.3/1
18. Xavier host Dayton 3/5
19. Arizona State lost
20. Florida State won
The buzz: Xavier has stumbled a bit of late and could fall another spot. Florida State has a monster closing schedule and could also fall. Arizona State and Illinois are as likely to get No. 4 seeds as they are No. 5s.

No. 6 seeds
21. Syracuse host Cinc 3/1
22. West Virginia at S.Fla 3/1
23. UCLA won
24. Utah /at BYU lost
The buzz: Utah has a great RPI (ninth), but hasn't beaten anyone of note on the road. That means the Utes' seed could be a spot ? or even two ? lower. The other teams in this group could use another marquee win.

No. 7 seeds
25. LSU won
26. Gonzaga won
27. Butler won
28. Texas loss
The buzz: LSU has clinched at least a share of the SEC regular-season title, while Gonzaga has clinched the regular-season crown in the West Coast Conference. Butler and Texas could end up a seed higher, depending on how they finish the regular season and how they perform in their league tournaments.

No. 8 seeds
29. Arizona lost
30. Minnesota host Wisc. 3/4
31. California lost
32. Ohio State lost
The buzz: Arizona's loss to Washington State makes things dicey for the Wildcats again. California got a key win against USC. Minnesota and Ohio State are fighting to finish fourth in the Big Ten.

No. 9 seeds
33. Boston College at NC ST. 3/4
34. Wisconsin host MICH 3/1
35. Dayton won
36. BYU won
The buzz: BC, BYU and Wisconsin have played well of late. Not so for Dayton, which could nail down a bid with a win over Xavier on March 5. A Flyers victory would complete a season sweep of the Musketeers.

No. 10 seeds
37. Florida host Tenn. 3/1
38. UNLV /host AF 3/4
39. Tennessee at FLA 3/1
40. Oklahoma State won
The buzz: UNLV needs a deep run ? like to the final ? of the Mountain West tourney to get into the NCAA field. Actually, UNLV may need to win the tournament. The other three in this grouping need to finish strong in the regular season, then avoid a "bad" loss in their league tournaments.

No. 11 seeds
41. South Carolina lost
42. Siena at Can 3/1
43. Miami st Ga. Tech 3/4
44. Creighton wins
The buzz: Creighton and Siena might be OK ? might be ? if they win their regular-season titles but falter in their league tournaments. Miami and South Carolina still must finish strong.

No. 12 seeds
45. Cincinnati at Syrc. 3/1
46. Kentucky[ host LSU lost
47. Penn State won
48. Utah State at Nev 2/28 lost
The buzz: Utah State has to win the WAC tournament to get a bid, while the others still have some work to do to gain at-large spots.

No. 13 seeds
49. Davidson won
50. Virginia Commonwealth won
51. Western Kentucky won
52. Buffalo at Ohio 3/1
The buzz: These teams must win their league tournaments to get in: Davidson in the Southern, Virginia Commonwealth in the Colonial, Western Kentucky in the Sun Belt and Buffalo in the MAC.

No. 14 seeds
53. American won
54. Weber State won
55. Binghamton
56. Cornell loss
The buzz: American and Weber State have clinched the regular-season titles in their leagues, and each will play their conference tourney games on its home court. If Binghamton wins the America East title, it would host the league tourney final if it's in the game. Cornell is in good position to win the Ivy League, the only conference without a tournament.

No. 15 seeds
57. Stephen F. Austin won
58. North Dakota State won
59. Belmont loss
60. Robert Morris win
The buzz: Belmont is searching for its fourth consecutive NCAA bid, Robert Morris its first since 1992 and Stephen F. Austin and North Dakota State their first overall.

No. 16 seeds
61. UT-Martin win
62. CS Northridge win
63. Morgan State win
64. Radford loss
65. Alabama State win
The buzz: Radford already has clinched its regular-season title (the Big South). The others are either in the lead or tied. Alabama State is the pick to win the Southwestern Athletic Conference, and the SWAC winner almost certainly will be in the play-in game.

LAST FOUR IN
Penn State[won], Kentucky[lost], Cincinnati,[at Syrc 3/1] Miami [at Ga.Tech 3/4

LAST FOUR OUT:
Virginia Tech[lost], Maryland[at NC ST. 3/1], Michigan[at Wisc 3/1], Temple. LOST


BREAKDOWN BY LEAGUE

8: Big East
7: ACC, Big Ten
5: Big 12, Pac-10, SEC
3: Mountain West
2: Atlantic 10
1: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial Athletic Association, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, Metro Atlantic, Mid-American, Mid-Eastern Athletic, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern Athletic, Summit, Sun Belt, West Coast, Western Athletic (23)

SOME NOTES ON THE MAKEUP OF THE FIELD
? The NCAA uses an "S curve," meaning it ranks all 65 teams in order 1-65, then places them in regions under the theory the top No. 1 seed would have the worst No. 2 seed in its bracket, the worst No. 1 seed would have the top No. 2 seed, etc. The balancing of the regions is the most important factor in seeding the tournament.

? As far as other rules go, teams from the same conference hopefully won't meet until a regional final, but the NCAA has relaxed that because some conferences have six and seven bids (it's even permissible for an intraconference matchup in the second round, though that is to be avoided whenever possible). But the first three teams selected from a given conference must be in different regions.

? Higher-seeded teams should be placed as close to home as possible. No team may play on its home floor, but most sites are "neutral courts" anyway.

? Teams can move up or down a spot or two in the "S-curve," maybe even a seed, to preserve other principles.

? SEC commissioner Mike Slive is the chairman of the 10-member NCAA Tournament Selection Committee this season. He is one of four members with a "Big Six" affiliation, joining UCLA athletic director Dan Guerrero, Connecticut athletic director Jeff Hathaway and Ohio State athletic director Gene Smith. The other six members: Xavier AD Mike Bobinski, Texas-San Antonio AD Lynn Hickey, Utah AD Chris Hill, Kent State AD Laing Kennedy, UC Riverside AD Stan Morrison and George Mason AD Thomas O'Connor. O'Connor was the chairman last season. Hickey is just the second woman to ever serve on the committee, following Charlotte AD Judy Rose (1999-2003).

2009 TOURNAMENT DATES
March 17: Opening-round game in Dayton, Ohio
First and second rounds
March 19 and 21: Greensboro, N.C.; Kansas City, Mo.; Philadelphia; Portland, Ore.
March 20 and 22: Boise, Idaho; Dayton, Ohio; Miami; Minneapolis
Regional semifinals and final
March 26 and 28: Boston; Glendale, Ariz.
March 27 and 29: Indianapolis; Memphis, Tenn.
Final Four
April 4 and 6: Ford Field, Detroit

Mike Huguenin is the college sports editor for Rivals.com. He can be reached at mhuguenin@rivals.com

 

[Old School]

Bracketology scroll
By Joe Lunardi
Special to ESPN.com

ON THE BUBBLE

LAST FOUR IN
Florida
Oklahoma State
Penn State
Michigan

FIRST FOUR OUT
Minnesota
Providence
Cincinnati
Maryland

NEXT FOUR OUT
San Diego State
Texas A&M
New Mexico
Kansas State

THE RUNDOWN
BIDS BY CONFERENCE
ACC (8)
Big East (7)
Big Ten (7)
Big 12 (5)
Pac-10 (5)
SEC (5)
Mountain West (3)
Atlantic 10 (2)

 

[Old School]

Bubble Watch


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here's how CBSSports.com college basketball producer Brian De Los Santos assesses the resum?s of teams that may be sweating it out until Selection Sunday.


Teams that should be safe (31):

ACC (4): Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier
Big 12 (4): Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virgnia
Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Mountain West (1): Utah
Pac-10 (4): Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
West Coast (1): Gonzaga

If all our "safe" teams are indeed locks and assuming one of the teams listed above wins its conference's automatic bid (11 conferences listed), plus 20 other conference automatic bids, that would leave 14 at-large spots available in the tournament of 65. There are 34 teams currently on our bubble list.
NOTE: Click team name or logo for a detailed breakdown of a team's RPI and SOS.

Last updated: Feb. 28, 11:20 p.m. ET

ACC
Florida State (21-7, 8-5 ACC)

Pros
An RPI ranked in the top 20 and SOS in the top 30. Wins of note: at Clemson, at Va. Tech, neutral court vs. California, neutral court vs. Cincinnati, vs. Miami, vs. Florida, vs. Maryland.
Cons
A 1-4 record vs. the RPI top 25. Six victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200.
Outlook
With no truly bad losses -- only three losses to teams outside the RPI top 20, all on the road -- the Seminoles look to be in good shape for an at-large bid. But the schedule ahead isn't easy, and if they were to end the season on a four-game skid, that might give the selection committee second thoughts. Just one more win, which would lock in a winning record in the ACC, might be all they need.
Last game
lost to Boston College 72-67
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Clemson
March 3 -- @ Duke
March 8 -- Virginia Tech
March 12-15 -- ACC tournament

Boston College (20-9, 8-6 ACC)

Pros
An RPI and SOS in the top 50. Wins of note: at North Carolina, vs. Duke, vs. Florida State, vs. Va. Tech, vs. Providence, at Maryland.
Cons
Losses to Harvard at home and at St. Louis. Swept by Miami, another team on the bubble.
Outlook
The Eagles have a nice array of wins and look to be one of the bubble teams with the least to worry about. But just to be on the safe side, we'd like to see them take care of business vs. NC State and Georgia Tech before locking them in.
Last game
def. Florida State 72-67
Remaining schedule
March 4 -- @ NC State
March 7 -- Georgia Tech
March 12-15 -- ACC tournament

Virginia Tech (17-10, 7-6 ACC)

Pros
An SOS in the top 50. Eight victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: at Clemson, at Wake Forest, at Miami, vs. Boston College.
Cons
A 4-7 record vs. the RPI top 75. Lost to sub-200 RPI Georgia. Lost only meeting against Maryland, a fellow bubble team.
Outlook
The great thing about the Hokies is that they've been able to win on road. Their stretch run is about as tough as it gets and will certainly help their power numbers. Considering the strength of their next three opponents, just one more win should put them over the hump for an at-large bid. On the flip side, if they fail to get that one win, they will have lost six of their final seven regular-season games.
Last game
def. Clemson 80-77
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Duke
March 4 -- North Carolina
March 8 -- @ Florida State
March 12-15 -- ACC tournament

Maryland (17-10, 6-7 ACC)

Pros
An SOS in the top 30. Only one loss to a team outside the RPI top 50. Wins of note: vs. North Carolina, neutral court vs. Michigan State, vs. Miami, vs. Michigan, vs. Virginia Tech.
Cons
A 4-9 mark vs. the RPI top 50. Lost badly on a neutral court to Georgetown, another team on the bubble. Home loss to Morgan State. Six victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200.
Outlook
If not for the stunning loss to Morgan State, the Terps would have a solid case. They took a huge step forward with their victory over North Carolina and they also have a couple of nice non-conference wins. They let one get away against Duke, but Wake offers one more chance to pad the resum?. But first up is a trip to NC State, which the Terps would be wise not to overlook.
Last game
lost to Duke 78-67
Remaining schedule
March 1 -- @ NC State
March 3 -- Wake Forest
March 7 -- @ Virginia
March 12-15 -- ACC tournament

Miami (Fla.) (17-10, 6-8 ACC)

Pros
An SOS in the top 15 and an RPI hovering around the top 50. Wins of Note: vs. Wake Forest, vs. Florida State, vs. Maryland, at Kentucky, swept Boston College.
Cons
A 4-7 mark vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Lost six of their last nine.
Outlook
They have some nice wins and no truly horrible losses. But they'll look a lot more appealling if they win out, which would pad the record and get them to .500 in ACC play. The schedule is such that if they're truly worthy of a bid, they should be able to pull it off. But if they stumble, they may need a couple of victories in the ACC tournament to strengthen their case.
Last game
def. Virginia 62-55
Remaining schedule
March 4 -- @ Georgia Tech
March 7 -- NC State
March 12-15 -- ACC tournament


Atlantic 10
Dayton (23-5, 9-4 A-10)

Pros
Stellar overall record. An RPI in the top 35. Wins of note: vs. Xavier, neutral court vs. Marquette.
Cons
An SOS in the triple digits featuring just three games vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Seven wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 200. Lost at Creighton, another team that could be battling for an at-large spot if it fails to win its conference tournament. Three losses vs. teams outside the RPI top 100.
Outlook
The victories over Xavier and Marquette are nice, but the overall SOS is a killer. After a tough overtime loss at Rhode Island, games vs. Temple and at Xavier loom large.
Last game
lost to Rhode Island 93-91 OT
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Temple
March 5 -- @ Xavier
March 7 -- Duquesne
March 11-14 -- A-10 tournament

Temple (17-10, 9-4 A-10)

Pros
An RPI hovering around the top 40. Winners of five of their past six and eight of their past 11. Wins of note: vs. Tennessee, at Penn State, vs. Rhode Island.
Cons
A 1-4 record vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Losses at home to La Salle and at Buffalo, Long Beach and UMass.
Outlook
Despite a decent RPI and SOS, the Owls are lacking in the quality win department with just five victories vs. teams in the RPI top 100. Loss at home to La Salle is probably the nail in the coffin, but we'll keep them on the bubble for now and see how the rest of the regular season and A-10 tournament plays out.
Last game
lost to La Salle 70-63
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Dayton
March 5 -- Saint Joseph's
March 7 -- @ George Washington
March 11-14 -- A-10 tournament

Rhode Island (21-8, 10-4 A-10)

Pros
Winners of five in a row and nine of their past 10. Wins of note: vs. Dayton, vs. Temple, neutral court vs. Penn State.
Cons
Weak RPI and an SOS in the triple digits. Ten wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 and five vs. teams outside the top 300.
Outlook
The Rams have been playing some terrific ball of late, but lack the power numbers and a marquee victory to hang their hat on. Despite their late-season surge, their credentials shout longshot at best for an at-large.
Last game
def. Dayton 93-91 OT
Remaining schedule
March 1 -- @ Duquesne
March 7 -- Massachusetts
March 11-14 -- A-10 tournament


Big East
Cincinnati (18-10, 8-7 Big East)

Pros
An SOS in the top 30 and an RPI hovering around the top 50. Wins of note: vs. West Virginia, vs. UAB, at UNLV, vs. Notre Dame, swept Georgetown.
Cons
A 1-7 record vs. teams in the RPI top 25. Swept by Providence, a fellow bubble team.
Outlook
Beating West Virginia gives them that elusive victory vs. a team ranked in the RPI top 25. The Bearcats have a very interesting resume with eight of their 10 losses to teams likely to make the NCAA tournament field and six victories over teams that should receive tournament consideration. It's hard to fathom that they don't get a bid. Win at Syracuse and it won't even be a question.
Last game
def. West Virginia 65-61
Remaining schedule
March 1 -- @ Syracuse
March 3 -- @ South Florida
March 7 -- Seton Hall
March 10-14 -- Big East tournament

Georgetown (14-12, 5-10 Big East)

Pros
An SOS ranked in the top five and an RPI hovering around the top 50. Three victories over teams in the RPI top 25. Wins of note: at UConn, vs. Memphis, vs. Syracuse, neutral court vs. Maryland, vs. Providence.
Cons
A 3-8 mark vs. team in the RPI top 50. A 4-7 record away from home. Losers of eight of their past 10.
Outlook
The Hoyas find themselves in a similar situation to the one Arizona faced last year: A record in ruins from a brutally tough schedule. The committee put the Wildcats in and could do the same for the Hoyas as long as they avoid any bad losses (read: don't lose to St. John's or DePaul). A win at Villanova certainly wouldn't hurt.
Last game
lost to Louisville 76-58
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Villanova
March 3 -- @ St. John's
March 7 -- DePaul
March 10-14 -- Big East tournament

Providence (17-11, 9-7 Big East)

Pros
An SOS hovering around top 40. Wins of note: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse, vs. Rhode Island, swept Cincinnati.
Cons
A 2-7 mark vs teams in the RPI top 50. A 4-7 mark away from home. Lost at home to Northeastern. Losses to bubble teams Georgetown, Boston College, Notre Dame, Baylor and Saint Mary's.
Outlook
Beating Pittsburgh was huge, but still might not be enough to get them over the hump as it was only their fifth victory over a team ranked in the RPI top 100. But it keeps them on the radar. Rutgers is a must win and then if they can add Villanova to their list of victims, they can make a better case for a bid with the Big East tourney still to come.
Last game
def. Pittsburgh 81-73
Remaining schedule
March 1 -- @ Rutgers
March 5 -- @ Villanova
March 10-14 -- Big East tournament

Notre Dame (16-11, 7-8 Big East)

Pros
An SOS hovering around the top 40. Won four of their past five games. Wins of note: vs. Louisville, vs. Georgetown, neutral court vs. Texas, at Providence.
Cons
An RPI outside the top 70. A 1-6 record vs. the RPI top 25 and 3-9 mark against the top 50. A 5-9 mark away from home. Lost to St. John's. Lost lone meeting against Cincinnati, another team on the bubble.
Outlook
Aside from St. John's, the Irish don't have any atrocious losses, but on the flip side, they only have four victories vs. teams in the RPI top 100. In addition to a must-win over St. John's at home, the Irish could use -- at the very least -- a split of its contests vs. UConn and Villanova. And then they may still need a couple wins in the Big East tournament. In other words, the Irish have some work to do to be NCAA tournament worthy.
Last game
def. Rutgers 70-65
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Connecticut
March 2 -- Villanova
March 6 -- St. John's
March 10-14 -- Big East tournament


Big Ten
Michigan (18-11, 8-8 Big Ten)

Pros
An SOS in the top 15 and an RPI in the top 50. Wins of note: vs. Duke, vs. Illinois, vs. Purdue, vs. Minnesota, neutral court vs. UCLA, vs. Penn State.
Cons
Seven victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 (including one vs. a non DI school). A 4-8 mark on the road.
Outlook
Up until the loss to Iowa, the Wolverines had no particularly galling losses -- all had come vs. teams that should receive NCAA tournament consideration and most were on the road. Rebounded with a win vs. Purdue, but close with two tough road contests. They're looking pretty good for a bid right now, but a split of the final two might just seal the deal.
Last game
def. Purdue 87-78
Remaining schedule
March 1 -- @ Wisconsin
March 8 -- @ Minnesota
March 12-15 -- Big Ten tournament

Minnesota (20-8, 8-8 Big Ten)

Pros
An RPI and SOS in the top 40. Four victories vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Wins of note: neutral court vs. Louisville, vs. Illinois, at Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State, vs. Penn State.
Cons
Losers of five of their past seven games (all five losses on the road).
Outlook
The Gophers have some good wins, but they're doing themselves no favors with this late season skid. They still have a pair of tough matchups left in the regular season, but fortunately for them, the games are at home. If they don't win at least one of the two, they could be in trouble pending the Big Ten tournament.
Last game
lost to Illinois 52-41
Remaining schedule
March 4 -- Wisconsin
March 8 -- Michigan
March 12-15 -- Big Ten tournament

Penn State (19-9, 8-7 Big Ten)

Pros
Five victories over teams in the RPI top 50, two vs. teams in the top 25. Wins of note: at Michigan State, at Illinois, vs. Purdue, vs. Minnesota, vs. Michigan.
Cons
Penn State's SOS and RPI numbers won't help them. Nine victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200. Split season series with Minnesota and Michigan, which both have better power numbers.
Outlook
The Nittany Lions' worst loss is on a neutral court vs. Rhode Island, which really isn't all that bad. As long as they avoid any big upsets (losing to Indiana or Iowa would qualify), they can make a decent case for an at-large bid, though it would be a much better case if they finish off a season sweep of Illinois.
Last game
lost to Ohio State 73-59
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Indiana
March 5 -- Illinois
March 7 -- @ Iowa
March 12-15 -- Big Ten tournament


Big 12
Texas A&M (20-8, 6-7 Big 12)

Pros
An RPI and SOS ranked in the top 40. Four victories vs. teams ranked in the RPI top 50. Wins of note: vs. LSU, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Texas, vs. Arizona, vs. Baylor, at Nebraska.
Cons
Aside from Arizona and LSU, a non-descript out of conference schedule. Eight victories vs. teams ranked outside the RPI top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school).
Outlook
Victory over Nebraska was huge because it gave them an edge over another fellow bubble team, and added another RPI top 100 win, which they were severly lacking. If they can win out, which would include a victory over top 25 Missouri, they can start packing for the Big Dance. Short of that, however, and they may need a win or two in the Big 12 tournament to feel a bit more secure.
Last game
def. Nebraska 57-55
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Iowa State
March 4 -- @ Colorado
March 7 -- Missouri
March 11-14 -- Big 12 tournament

Oklahoma State (18-9, 7-6 Big 12)

Pros
An SOS in the top 15 and an RPI in the top 35. Winners of four in a row. Wins of note: neutral court vs. Siena, vs. Texas A&M, vs. Baylor, neutral court vs. Rhode Island, at Nebraska.
Cons
A 2-8 record vs. teams in the RPI top 50. No truly noteworthy victories.
Outlook
While the Cowboys may be 2-8 vs. the top 50, they're 4-1 vs. teams ranked 51-75. But when your biggest win is against Siena, that's a problem. They split the season series vs. both Texas A&M and Baylor. With Texas and Oklahoma still on the slate, they have an opportunity to pick up a marquee victory.
Last game
def. Colorado 76-55
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Texas
March 3 -- Kansas State
March 7 -- @ Oklahoma
March 11-14 -- Big 12 tournament

Kansas State (19-9, 7-6 Big 12)

Pros
Winners of eight of their last 10 games. Wins of note: vs. Missouri, at Texas, at Texas A&M.
Cons
An RPI and SOS both ranked outside the top 75. Ten victories vs. teams ranked outside the top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school). A 3-7record vs. teams ranked in the top 75 of the RPI. Losses to fellow bubble teams Baylor, Nebraska and Kentucky. Two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100.
Outlook
With three games remaining, winning out probably won't guarantee a bid, but one more loss could guarantee they won't even be considered for a bid. They lack the power numbers and just four victories vs. teams in the RPI top 100 won't cut it.
Last game
lost to Missouri 94-74
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Nebraska
March 3 -- @ Oklahoma State
March 7 -- Colorado
March 11-14 -- Big 12 tournament

Nebraska (16-10, 6-7 Big 12)

Pros
An SOS hovering around the top 40. Wins of note: vs. Missouri, vs. Texas, vs. Creighton, vs. Kansas State.
Cons
A sub-par RPI. A 3-7 record vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Three losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, including UMBC at home. Lost lone meetings against Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, two other teams on the bubble.
Outlook
The three losses to teams outside the RPI top 100 is a killer and all their major wins came on their home court. Letting that game vs. Texas A&M slip away will haunt them. Right now their credentials aren't good enough. They need to win out and make a deep run in the Big 12 tournament to revive their tourney dreams.
Last game
lost to Texas A&M 57-55
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Kansas State
March 4 -- Iowa State
March 7 -- @ Baylor
March 11-14 -- Big 12 tournament

Baylor (16-11, 4-9 Big 12)

Pros
An SOS in the top 20. Wins of note: neutral court vs. Arizona State, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Texas A&M, netural court vs. Providence, at Kansas State.
Cons
Lost eight of their last nine games. A 3-9 record vs. teams in the RPI top 50. A 4-7 record on the road.
Outlook
Though the Bears have some nice wins, their recent skid has left their tourney dreams in tatters. Anything short of winning out through the end of their regular-season schedule and a deep run in the Big 12 tourney and they can probably forget about an invite to the Big Dance.
Last game
lost to Iowa State 71-62
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Colorado
March 2 -- @ Texas
March 7 -- Nebraska
March 11-14 -- Big 12 tournament


Mountain West
UNLV (20-8, 8-6 MWC)

Pros
An RPI hovering around the top 50. A 5-2 mark vs. teams in the RPI top 50. Wins of note: vs. Utah, at Louisville, vs. Arizona, vs. New Mexico, swept BYU.
Cons
A sub-par SOS -- eight of their wins came vs. team ranked outside the RPI top 200. Two losses to teams ranked outside the RPI top 100.
Outlook
It's a very disjointed resum? for the Rebels at the moment. As host of the MWC tournament, they'd do themselves well to just win the automatic bid.
Last game
lost to Utah 70-60
Remaining schedule
March 4 -- Air Force
March 7 -- @ San Diego State
March 11-14 -- MWC tournament

BYU (21-6, 9-4 MWC)

Pros
An RPI in the top 25 and SOS hovering around the top 50. A 9-4 mark in road/neutral games. Won six of last seven and seven of last 10. Wins of note: neutral court vs. Utah State, swept San Diego State.
Cons
A non-conference SOS in the triple digits. Seven victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school). No victories against teams from a BCS league. Swept by fellow bubble team/conference rival UNLV.
Outlook
They've only had a couple shots to knock off a high major and while they came close, fact of the matter is they didn't get the job done. The Cougars really could have used a win over UNLV. Split season series vs. New Mexico. Nevertheless, if they can win out through the end of the regular season, an at-large bid looks promising.
Last game
def. San Diego State 69-59
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Utah
March 4 -- @ Wyoming
March 7 -- Air Force
March 11-14 -- MWC tournament

New Mexico (18-10, 9-4 MWC)

Pros
Winners of five of their past six and seven of nine. Wins of note: vs. BYU, vs. vs. UNLV, vs. San Diego State, vs. Mississippi.
Cons
An RPI and SOS outside the top 70. All their top victories came at home. Three losses to teams ranked outside the RPI top 100, including one at home. Lost to fellow bubble team Creighton.
Outlook
The Lobos split the season series vs. BYU, UNLV and San Diego State and all three rank ahead of them in the RPI. Even if they were to win out, which would include a win over conference-leading Utah, it's likely going to come down to how they perform in the conference tournament.
Last game
def. TCU 76-62
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Colorado State
March 3 -- Utah
March 7 -- @ Wyoming
March 11-14 -- MWC tournament

San Diego State (18-8, 8-5 MWC)

Pros
An RPI hovering around the top 50. Wins of note: vs. Utah, at UNLV, vs. New Mexico.
Cons
Weak overall SOS with eight wins coming vs. teams ranked outside the RPI top 200 (including two vs. non-DI schools). No noteworthy victories vs. out-of-conference foes.
Outlook
At this point, anything short of winning out and reaching the MWC title game, the Aztecs can forget about receiving an invite to the Big Dance.
Last game
lost to BYU 69-59
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ TCU
March 4 -- Colorado State
March 7 -- UNLV
March 11-14 -- MWC tournament


Pac-10
Arizona (18-10, 8-7 Pac-10)

Pros
An RPI in the top 50 and SOS hovering around the top 40. Winners of seven of their last nine games. Four victories vs. teams in the RPI top 50, six vs. the top 75. Wins of note: vs. Kansas, vs. Washington, vs. UCLA, neutral court vs. Gonzaga, vs. USC, vs. San Diego State.
Cons
Nearly all their top victories came at home. A 5-8 mark in road/neutral games. Lost non-conference road games at fellow bubble teams Texas A&M and UNLV and at home to UAB.
Outlook
Sure the losses to UAB and Texas A&M were heartbreakers, but a loss is a loss, though the selection committee may take into account those losses came early in the season. Washington State figured to be the gimme win down the stretch, but the Wildcats flubbed that and now, following a seven-game win streak, they're looking a bit shaky. A victory over Washington or Cal should put them back in the good graces of the selection committee, but failing that, they could have some work to do in the Pac-10 tourney.
Last game
lost to Washington State 69-53
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Washington
March 5 -- California
March 7 -- Stanford
March 11-14 -- Pac-10 tournament

Southern California (16-11, 7-8 Pac-10)

Pros
An SOS in the top 20. An RPI hovering around the top 50. Wins of note: vs. Arizona State, vs. California, vs. Arizona.
Cons
Lost five of their past six. Only five victories vs. teams ranked in the RPI top 100. A 3-9 record in road/neutral games. Two losses to teams ranked outside the RPI top 100.
Outlook
Good power numbers, but that's about it. They gave it the old college try against Cal, but came up just short of the season sweep. It's not looking good for the Trojans, but we won't say they're completely dead. If they were to win out and go on to reach the Pac-10 championship they'd still have an argument for a bid. But that's asking an awful lot.
Last game
lost to California 81-78 OT
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Stanford
March 5 -- Oregon
March 7 -- Oregon State
March 11-14 -- Pac-10 tournament


SEC
South Carolina (20-6, 9-4 SEC)

Pros
An RPI hovering around the top 40. Winners of eight of their past 11 games. Wins of note: vs. Florida, at Baylor, swept Kentucky.
Cons
A weak SOS. Just one win vs. a team ranked in the RPI top 50 and nine wins vs. teams ranked outside the top 200.
Outlook
The Gamecocks are playing well and have only one truly bad loss, that coming at the College of Charleston. But there's not a lot of meat to their resum?. They'd probably be in if the field were set today, but they don't have much wiggle room to falter down the stretch.
Last game
def. Kentucky 77-59
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Vanderbilt
March 5 -- Tennessee
March 7 -- @ Georgia
March 12-15 -- SEC tournament

Kentucky (19-9, 8-5 SEC)

Pros
Wins of note: neutral court vs. West Virginia, vs. Florida, neutral court vs. Kansas State, swept Tennessee.
Cons
Relatively weak RPI and SOS. Nine victories vs. team ranked outside the RPI top 200. Lost at home to VMI. Lost to fellow bubble team Miami (Fla.) and swept by South Carolina.
Outlook
A victory over LSU will certainly help. But win or lose, it's likely going to take some work in the SEC tourney to truly strengthen their case.
Last game
lost to South Carolina 77-59
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- LSU
March 4 -- Georgia
March 7 -- @ Florida
March 12-15 -- SEC tournament

Florida (21-7, 8-5 SEC)

Pros
An RPI hovering around the top 40. Wins of note: neutral court vs. Washington, vs. South Carolina, vs. Mississippi.
Cons
A weak SOS. Just two wins vs. teams ranked in the RPI top 50. They have 10 wins vs. teams ranked outside the RPI top 200.
Outlook
The Gators have feasted on a dreadful non-conference schedule and, on top of that, it's a weak year in the SEC. Right now, there's not a whole lot that screams this team is deserving of an NCAA tourney bid. Fortunately, they have three games ahead that if they can win out, it will put them right back in the picture.
Last game
lost to LSU 81-75
Remaining schedule
March 1 -- Tennessee
March 4 -- @ Mississippi State
March 7 -- Kentucky
March 12-15 -- SEC tournament


Others
Saint Mary's (Calif.) (23-5, 9-4 West Coast)

Pros
An RPI hovering around the top 50. Eleven victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: vs. Utah State, neutral court vs. San Diego State, neutral court vs. Providence.
Cons
An SOS in the triple-digits. Only three victories vs. teams inside the RPI top 100 and eight wins vs. teams outside the top 200. Two victories vs. non DI schools.
Outlook
The committee could take into account that the absence of Patrick Mills played a large part in four of their five losses (including a very bad loss at Santa Clara). It's not the best resum? out there, but they do have victories over three fellow bubble teams. But they need Mills back in the lineup and that may not happen until the WCC tournament. With Mills, this is a tourney worthy team.
Last game
def. Pepperdine 62-49
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Loyola-Marymount
March 6-9 -- WCC tournament

Utah State (26-3, 13-1 WAC)

Pros
An RPI in the top 30. A 10-3 mark in road/neutral games. Win of note: vs. Utah.
Cons
An SOS in the triple digits. Just three games vs. teams in the RPI top 75, two losses. Fourteen victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school)..
Outlook
As our own Gary Parrish so eloquently put it: The at-large hopes of Utah State took a huge hit when the Aggies went to Saint Mary's and lost to the Patrick Mills-less Gaels by a 75-64 margin. Just so we're clear, there's nothing wrong with losing at Saint Mary's. But you can't do it by double-digits when Patrick Mills is sitting on the bench with a broken hand in a tie and coat.
Last game
def. Hawaii 82-62
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- @ Nevada
March 7 -- San Jose State
March 10-14 -- WAC tournament

Creighton (24-6, 13-4 Missouri Valley)

Pros
An RPI hovering around the top 50. A 10-4 mark in road/neutral games. Winners of nine in a row and 10 of their past 11. Wins of note: vs. Dayton, vs. New Mexico.
Cons
An SOS in the triple-digits. Only one game played vs. a team in the RPI top 50. Fifteen wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 100. All six losses vs. teams outside the RPI top 50, including two against teams outside the RPI top 100.
Outlook
Their best bet of making the Big Dance is to win the MVC tournament. There isn't much meat to their resum? that makes them stand out.
Last game
def. Missouri State 65-59
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Illinois State
March 5-8 -- MVC tournament

Siena (22-7, 15-2 MAAC)

Pros
An RPI in the top 30. Winners of 12 of their past 14 games. A 5-4 record vs. teams in the RPI top 100. Win of note: none.
Cons
A weak overall SOS. Lost all four games vs. teams ranked in the RPI top 50. Two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100.
Outlook
The Saints played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the nation, but weren't able snag that marquee victory. When you're a strong team from a weak conference hoping for an at-large bid there is no room for error. While there's no shame in losing to Pitt, Kansas, Tennessee and Oklahoma State, the losses to Rider and Wichita State hurt. If they're really deserving of a Dance ticket, they're going to have to earn it in their conference tournament.
Last game
lost to Niagara 100-85
Remaining schedule
March 1 -- @ Canisius
March 6-9 -- MAAC tournament

Davidson (22-6, 15-2 Southern)

Pros
Stephen Curry. Win of note: neutral court vs. West Virginia.
Cons
An SOS in the triple digits and weak RPI. Just six games played vs. teams in the RPI top 100, four of them losses.
Outlook
Home losses to College of Charleston and The Citadel pretty much seals their fate. Anyone thinking they deserve an at-large berth is factoring in last year's magical run, not anything they've done this year. Better win the SoCon tourney if they want to go dancing.
Last game
def. NC Greensboro 70-49
Remaining schedule
Feb. 28 -- Ga. Southern
March 2 -- @ Elon
March 6-9 -- Southern tournament

 

[Old School]

mock seeding by Rivals is updated thru yesterdays results for those who care about such trivia