The Glen
- Thread starter kegray1
- Start date
You're right about Tony...even tho #24 spun out on the white flag lap, Tony was better than Gordon here last year and is using the same chassis as last year too...
The thing I don't like about Montoya or any of the road course specialists is that they don't have the pit crews that the regular chase-caliber guys have. These guys I played I feel have the good pit crews and good equipment week in and week out.
To Win:
#20 (+500) (cannot be overlooked)
#11 (+1550) (good equipment, started 2nd and finished 2nd here last year)
#99 (+1750) (spun out here last year while in 2nd place on the final lap)
#48 (+1750) (#48 team is looking like the #48 team again so this is an odds play)
gl
The thing I don't like about Montoya or any of the road course specialists is that they don't have the pit crews that the regular chase-caliber guys have. These guys I played I feel have the good pit crews and good equipment week in and week out.
To Win:
#20 (+500) (cannot be overlooked)
#11 (+1550) (good equipment, started 2nd and finished 2nd here last year)
#99 (+1750) (spun out here last year while in 2nd place on the final lap)
#48 (+1750) (#48 team is looking like the #48 team again so this is an odds play)
gl
Lots of neat stuff for this race: Including rained out First practice and Qualifying.
Lack of practice favors ringers over regulars.
Lack of Qualifying favors points position, especially Busch who inherits the pole (which would be critical in a rain shortened race).
Fuel Mileage will be a factor Sunday, not as much as at Infineon, but still important.
Good chance that we don't get in a full race due to weather issues.
Busch, Jr, Edwards and Johnson will probably play the "win or finish 25th, its all the same" Card, meaning they will probably take much more risks to win: lean out the engine for better fuel mileage, short pitting, other end game strategy, throw in rain strategies, etc.
7th through 14th in points (except Stewart) will play as conservative as possible. Unless one gets eliminated early in which case all bets are off.
Newman's chase hopes are pretty well done without a top 3 here. So he is in similar boat to the the guys racing for the win or nothing.
Get on your P's and Q's people.
Lack of practice favors ringers over regulars.
Lack of Qualifying favors points position, especially Busch who inherits the pole (which would be critical in a rain shortened race).
Fuel Mileage will be a factor Sunday, not as much as at Infineon, but still important.
Good chance that we don't get in a full race due to weather issues.
Busch, Jr, Edwards and Johnson will probably play the "win or finish 25th, its all the same" Card, meaning they will probably take much more risks to win: lean out the engine for better fuel mileage, short pitting, other end game strategy, throw in rain strategies, etc.
7th through 14th in points (except Stewart) will play as conservative as possible. Unless one gets eliminated early in which case all bets are off.
Newman's chase hopes are pretty well done without a top 3 here. So he is in similar boat to the the guys racing for the win or nothing.
Get on your P's and Q's people.
ALL RIGHT!!!
Some of these lines seem insane so I hope I am not falling into a trap.
Ambrose/Carpentier(-130) over Fellows/Said for 520 to win 400 on Highest finisher WINNER +400. WOW.
Final Practice results:
Ambrose 9 laps avg. 120.656 best lap was 72.58.
Carpentier 13 laps avg. 119.28 best lap was 73.29.
Said 14 laps avg. 118.02 best lap was 73.58.
Fellows 12 laps avg. 118.13 best lap was 73.50.
You are giving me the two best cars and juice is only -130. OK
DAVID RAGAN(EVEN) over TRAVIS KVAPIL for 200. WINNER +200
Ragan goes to his backup car after crash and only got a few laps in it avg around 117.50mph and I think he makes it better as that was straight off the truck.
Kvapil was AWFUL in practice running most laps of anyone(21) with avg. speed 115.63 best lap was 75.00 which was worst by over a second.
Also like 48(-110) over Edwards for 110. WINNER +100 Johnson was .70 faster on best lap and avg for 48 was 120.20 and Edwards was 118.91.
Good Luck
Some of these lines seem insane so I hope I am not falling into a trap.
Ambrose/Carpentier(-130) over Fellows/Said for 520 to win 400 on Highest finisher WINNER +400. WOW.
Final Practice results:
Ambrose 9 laps avg. 120.656 best lap was 72.58.
Carpentier 13 laps avg. 119.28 best lap was 73.29.
Said 14 laps avg. 118.02 best lap was 73.58.
Fellows 12 laps avg. 118.13 best lap was 73.50.
You are giving me the two best cars and juice is only -130. OK
DAVID RAGAN(EVEN) over TRAVIS KVAPIL for 200. WINNER +200
Ragan goes to his backup car after crash and only got a few laps in it avg around 117.50mph and I think he makes it better as that was straight off the truck.
Kvapil was AWFUL in practice running most laps of anyone(21) with avg. speed 115.63 best lap was 75.00 which was worst by over a second.
Also like 48(-110) over Edwards for 110. WINNER +100 Johnson was .70 faster on best lap and avg for 48 was 120.20 and Edwards was 118.91.
Good Luck
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I like the fact that these guys got into a car yesterday to get a few more laps around the track:
MATT KENSETH (-125) over KASEY KAHNE
RYAN NEWMAN (-130) over GREG BIFFLE
Also, I see Jamie McMurray is getting a lot respect at my books....I can get +105 on Ron Fellows vs. McMurray and +135 on Boris Said....
I'm not a big McMurray fan, and this looks awfully good that one of these should beat him.
Any thoughts or opinions on this one??
Good Luck Guys.
MATT KENSETH (-125) over KASEY KAHNE
RYAN NEWMAN (-130) over GREG BIFFLE
Also, I see Jamie McMurray is getting a lot respect at my books....I can get +105 on Ron Fellows vs. McMurray and +135 on Boris Said....
I'm not a big McMurray fan, and this looks awfully good that one of these should beat him.
Any thoughts or opinions on this one??
Good Luck Guys.
Newman was much better in practice than Biffle and Biffle ALWAYS has an issue on road course.
Mcmurray was a full second a lap avg faster than Fellows and Said.
I think books are putting too much value into Said because he is a road course guy. He is in Kyle Petty car which means IT SUCKS.
Two of my books have taken all Boris Said plays off the board for some reason.
Also I would never trust Kenseth on a road course as he hates them is not really very good on them. He just sits back and plays of the best possible finish banking on other peoples misfortune.
Mcmurray was a full second a lap avg faster than Fellows and Said.
I think books are putting too much value into Said because he is a road course guy. He is in Kyle Petty car which means IT SUCKS.
Two of my books have taken all Boris Said plays off the board for some reason.
Also I would never trust Kenseth on a road course as he hates them is not really very good on them. He just sits back and plays of the best possible finish banking on other peoples misfortune.
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