The Global Warming Myth - Ocelot stands corrected

kosar

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CHARLESMANSON said:
You asked for it......NEW VOLCANO THREAD THIS WEEKEND!!!

Stay tuned.... :clap:

:rolleyes:

I can barely wait for your new 'volcano thread.' I figured it would only take you a minute to post it, the way you were talking, not a day or two. Is your time up at your library station?
 

CHARLESMANSON

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Leaving for TJ Kosar but don't worry, I won't let you down. We'll talk volcanoes all you want lol. BTW while I'm gone feel free to respond to my other thread that I opened for you - you seem to be ignoring it. Have a nice weekend and good luck on your plays. :mj14:
 

BobbyBlueChip

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51 weekends during the year and I've got nothing to do. The one weekend I have plans - boom! Manson's giving me a Volcano thread.

Can't wait Manson - Looking forward to it.
 

CHARLESMANSON

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CMON!! You can't cancel your plans for me?? lol
Don't worry Bobby I'll be back on Tuesday so you won't miss anything. Actually I'll take my lap top. I wouldnt want to make everyone hold their breath.
 
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ferdville

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"There are five gases that are produced by volcanic activity. All of these gases are harmful except for water vapor. These five gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, fluorine, and chlorine. Carbon dioxide is one of the main causes of the Greenhouse Effect... volcanoes only 10 billion tons(Carbon Dioxide)." (Fisher).

Francis, Peter. Volcanoes - A Planetary Perspective. Oxford University Press. Oxford: 1993.

Not sure how much that is - would guess less than humans, but 10 billions tons is nothing to sneeze at.
 

ferdville

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A Large Volcanic Eruption Could Damage Ozone
by Philip Shabecoff
A major volcanic eruption could significantly accelerate the destruction of the earth's protective ozone layer by industrial chemicals, two atmospheric scientists have reported.

Such large eruptions are rare, usually occurring not more than once or twice a century, but scientists who reviewed the new findings said they underscored the urgency of efforts to protect the ozone layer.

In a report last month in the Journal of Geophysical Research, David J. Hoffman and Susan Solomon said that the same sort of chemical reactions that have taken place on ice clouds over Antarctica can occur anywhere in the world on sulfuric acid droplets from a volcanic eruption. Over Antarctica, the reactions depleted the ozone layer by up to 50 percent in the spring of 1987.

How much? Don't know...but seems significant.
 

ferdville

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More from same source


Dangers from Depletion

The depletion of atmospheric ozone, now widely attributed to emissions of chlorofluorocarbons and other industrial gases into the upper atmosphere, permits substantially higher levels of ultraviolet radiation from the sun to penetrate to the surface of the earth. Such radiation can increase skin cancer and cause eye cataracts and damage to the immune systems in humans, and it can harm plant, animal and marine life.

Dr. Hoffman, a physicist at the University of Wyoming, and Dr. Solomon, an atmospheric chemist with the Aeronomy Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, note that several scientific studies have suggested that the extinction of dinosaurs may have been linked to volcanic activity.
Evidence in recent years indicates that some volcanoes spew out chlorine compounds in addition to the large volumes of sulfuric acid produced in all eruptions. The chlorine compounds react with the sulfuric acid, thinning the ozone. Scientists theorize that the resulting increase in radiation killed the dinosaurs.


A large volcanic eruption, such as one that destroyed the island of Krakatoa in 1883, could establish conditions for catastrophic additional depletion of stratospheric ozone, the paper suggests.

Such a large eruption, the paper says, "would provide an important test of this dinosaur extinction theory and perhaps determine whether contemporary biological systems may also go the way of the dinosaurs."

Dr. Solomon emphasized that the eruption would have to be powerful enough to propel the sulfuric acid into the stratosphere. Smaller eruptions, she said, tend to send gases no higher than the lower atmosphere.

A scientist who reviewed the paper, Dr. Ralph Cicerone, director of the atmospheric chemistry division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said the possibility that destruction of the ozone layer could be accelerated by volcanic activity is "a potential bombshell.

"What is startling about the paper is that while there have been volcanoes throughout history, now we have put chlorine in the air with chlorofluorocarbons and that means volcanic activity is at least partially capable of destroying the ozone layer," Dr. Cicerone said.

Dr. Hoffman and Dr. Solomon said that after the eruption of El Chichon in Mexico in 1982 there was a sharp reduction in stratospheric ozone in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres, for which there appeared to be no explanation.

Since then, studies have found that ice formations on clouds in Antarctica provided a surface for chemical reactions in which freed chlorine radicals from chlorofluorocarbons react with and destroy ozone, a gas comprised of three oxygen molecules.

The two scientists developed computer models that suggested that sulfuric acid droplets from El Chichon could also provide a surface for chemical reactions with the industrial gases, although the reaction is somewhat slower and less intense than it is on the ice crystals.

The findings suggest that chemical reactions that can destroy the ozone layer can happen anywhere in the world if there is a large volcanic eruption, Dr. Solomon said. She said there are other sources of sulfuric acid in the upper atmosphere that provide a surface for the reaction of industrial chlorine, which is spread around the world, to destroy ozone.

Margaret A. Tolbert, a chemist at SRI International, a research organization in California, said the Hoffman-Solomon study shows that the kind of chemical reactions studied intensively over Antarctica can be found anywhere in the world.
 

ferdville

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This one basically says that the human made CFC's made it easier for the natural ones to wreak havoc - so it looks like there is a case for both sides.

FAQs About Chlorofluorocarbons

Do volcanic eruptions damage Earth's protective ozone layer as much as or more than human use of CFCs?
CFCs are chlorofluorocarbons -- they react with ozone to cause ozone depletion. After CFCs enter the stratosphere, ultraviolet radiation breaks them apart. The free chlorine atoms react with ozone to destroy the ozone layer. And it's true, CFCs now in our atmosphere do team up with volcanoes to destroy even more ozone than is destroyed when no volcanoes are erupting. But, according to scientists, volcanoes never destroyed significant amounts of ozone -- until human-made CFCs changed the chemistry of Earth's upper atmosphere.

It takes two things for a volcano to affect the ozone layer. First, the volcano has to be explosive -- so it can push its eruption directly into the stratosphere -- an upper layer of the atmosphere where ozone resides -- about 15 kilometers or nine miles above Earth's surface. Second, and more important, volcanoes can affect the ozone layer only when the upper atmosphere is already loaded with human-made CFCs. After volcanic particles enter the stratosphere, they change into tiny, condensed, aerosol droplets. The surfaces of those droplets attract compounds that contain chlorine. When these compounds interact with the aerosol droplets, they release the chlorine.

When Krakatoa erupted in the 1880s, the ozone layer wasn't affected. But in 1991, when Mt. Pinatubo erupted, the stratosphere already contained five to six times the natural amount of chlorine -- due to CFCs. That's why scientists observed a significant drop in ozone levels in 1992 and 93. Luckily, the effect of these volcanic particles on ozone is short lived -- volcanic particles only stay in the stratosphere for two to five years.
 

ferdville

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When large epidemics have occured, CO2 levels have gone down, even as far back as the Black Death or smallpox outbreaks in North America (CO2 data is gathered by examining tree rings). In fact, the amount of greenhouse gases humanity has put into the atmosphere were mainly added during the agricultural revolution. The clearing of land to create farms raised CO2 levels and the building of rice paddies raised methane levels. During times when large amounts of humans died, CO2 levels dropped because less deforestation occured.

Information taken from Scientific American, Febuary 2005.
 

ferdville

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many of you would find this source credible. It is from a NASA sponsored site. Again, looks like man and nature can both take significant credit. But this is an example of what happens here all the time. Someone makes a comment and rather than addressing the entire topic (i.e., man-made vs. natural destruction of atmosphere) too much arguing and name calling takes place over one comment. Let's try to look at both sides of the story.

by Jason Wolfe
September 5, 2000

When Mount Pinatubo erupted in the Philippines June 15, 1991, an estimated 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide and ash particles blasted more than 12 miles (20 km) high into the atmosphere. The eruption caused widespread destruction and loss of human life. Gases and solids injected into the stratosphere circled the globe for three weeks. Volcanic eruptions of this magnitude can impact global climate, reducing the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface, lowering temperatures in the troposphere, and changing atmospheric circulation patterns. The extent to which this occurs is an ongoing debate.


NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) enables study of the chemistry, dynamics and energy balance in the atmosphere layers above the troposphere. UARS provides near-global (-80 degrees to +80 degrees) measurements of the atmospheres' internal structure as well as measurements of external influences acting on the upper atmosphere. These measurements are made simultaneously in a coordinated manner. The UARS dataset spans from September 18, 1991 through August 31, 1999. UARS data are available from the Goddard Space Flight Center DAAC (now named the GSFC Earth Sciences DAAC).

SAGE II, launched in October 1984, uses a technique called solar occultation to measure attenuated solar radiation and to determine the vertical distribution of stratospheric aerosols, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and water vapor around the globe. SAGE II data are available from the Langley Atmospheric Sciences Data Center DAAC.

Multi-Channel Sea Surface Temperature (MCSST) data are derived from measurements of emitted and reflected radiance by the five-channel Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR) onboard the NOAA -7, -9. -11 and -14 polar orbiting satellites. MCSST data currently extend from November 11, 1981 through June 7, 2000, and are updated as new data become available. The sea surface temperature data sets may be ordered from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory DAAC (now named the Physical Oceanography DAAC).

Large-scale volcanic activity may last only a few days, but the massive outpouring of gases and ash can influence climate patterns for years. Sulfuric gases convert to sulfate aerosols, sub-micron droplets containing about 75 percent sulfuric acid. Following eruptions, these aerosol particles can linger as long as three to four years in the stratosphere.

Major eruptions alter the Earth's radiative balance because volcanic aerosol clouds absorb terrestrial radiation, and scatter a significant amount of the incoming solar radiation, an effect known as "radiative forcing" that can last from two to three years following a volcanic eruption.

"Volcanic eruptions cause short-term climate changes and contribute to natural climate variability," says Georgiy Stenchikov, a research professor with the Department of Environmental Sciences at Rutgers University. "Exploring effects of volcanic eruption allows us to better understand important physical mechanisms in the climate system that are initiated by volcanic forcing."

Stenchikov and Professor Alan Robock of Rutgers University with Hans Graf and Ingo Kirchner of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology performed a series of climate simulations that combined volcanic aerosol observations from the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment II (SAGE II) available from the Langley DAAC, with Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) data from the Goddard Space Flight Center DAAC.


Volcanic ash, like this from Mount St. Helens, is not really ash, but tiny jagged particles of rock and glass. (Image courtesy of the USGS, from the USGS Fact Sheet 027-00. A new browser window will open.)

The research team ran a general circulation model developed at the Max Planck Institute with and without Pinatubo aerosols for the two years following the Pinatubo eruption. To study the sensitivity of climate response to sea surface temperature, using data from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory DAAC, they conducted calculations with climatologically mean sea surface temperature, as well as with those observed during particular El Ni?o and La Ni?a periods.

By comparing the climate simulations from the Pinatubo eruption, with and without aerosols, the researchers found that the climate model calculated a general cooling of the global troposphere, but yielded a clear winter warming pattern of surface air temperature over Northern Hemisphere continents. The temperature of the tropical lower stratosphere increased by 4 Kelvin (4?C) because of aerosol absorption of terrestrial longwave and solar near-infrared radiation. The model demonstrated that the direct radiative effect of volcanic aerosols causes general stratospheric heating and tropospheric cooling, with a tropospheric warming pattern in the winter.

"The modeled temperature change is consistent with the temperature anomalies observed after the eruption," Stenchikov says. "The pattern of winter warming following the volcanic eruption is practically identical to a pattern of winter surface temperature change caused by global warming. It shows that volcanic aerosols force fundamental climate mechanisms that play an important role in the global change process."
This temperature pattern is consistent with the existence of a strong phase of the Arctic Oscillation, a natural pattern of circulation in which atmospheric pressure at polar and middle latitudes fluctuates, bringing higher-than-normal pressure over the polar region and lower-than-normal pressure at about 45 degrees north latitude. It is forced by the aerosol radiative effect, and circulation in winter is stronger than the aerosol radiative cooling that dominates in summer.

Man-made, or "anthropogenic" emissions can make the consequences of volcanic eruptions on the global climate system more severe, Stenchikov says. For instance, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere start a chain of chemical reactions on aerosol surfaces that destroy ozone molecules in the mid-latitude stratosphere, intensifying observed stratospheric ozone depletion.

"While we have no observations, the 1963 Agung eruption on the island of Bali probably did not deplete ozone as there was little atmospheric chlorine in the stratosphere. In 1991 after the Pinatubo eruption, when the amount of CFCs in the stratosphere increased, the ozone content in the mid-latitudes decreased by 5 percent to 8 percent, affecting highly populated regions," says Stenchikov.

NASA and the National Science Foundation have funded Robock and Stenchikov to study the Pinatubo eruption in more detail, and to conduct another model comparison with the volcanic aerosol data set. They plan to combine SAGE II data with available lidar and satellite data from various DAACs to improve their existing data set.

By understanding the impact of large volcanic eruptions on Earth's climate system in more detail, perhaps scientists will be in a better position to suggest measures to lessen their effects on people and natural resources.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kirchner, I., G. Stenchikov, H.-F. Graf, A. Robock. J. Antuna, Climate model simulation of winter warming and summer cooling following the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 19,039-19,055, 1999.

Stenchikov, Georgiy L., Ingo Kirchner, Alan Robock, Hans-F. Graf, Juan Carlos Antuna, R. G. Grainger, Alyn Lambert, and Larry Thomason, 1998: Radiative Forcing from the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption. J. Geophys Res. 103(D12), pp. 13837-13857.
 

ocelot

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Thank you ferdville. I respect all the information you have posted as credible information from actual scientists. No problem with any of it.

To reiterate though, I never claimed that there were not natural causes for global warming. My point is that the Bush crowd want to avoid any action on the subject as regards the human contributions over which we can have some control. There is no debate that human activity is contributing to changing the climate of our planet. Think about that - not many years ago noone would have imagined that what we as a species did could actually affect weather patterns.

In any event, thanks for posting statements from authorities. I contend that I did the same last week. Manson, however, posted outrageous claims that he could not back up - gross distortions of what scientists actually have stated.

As for the name calling, I will apologize though upon review you will see that you began posting in this thread with a combative statement towards me regarding "ranting and raving". If I have ranted and raved it is for justifiable reason in my estimation. I regard Bush and the right wing as truly dangerous on many levels to the future of us all. Before someone like 6-5, Freeze, or DTB jump in here, I find the Moslem fanatics even MORE dangerous.

To paraphrase the lyrics of John Lennon - "Imagine no religions"
 

djv

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I have always wonder what no religions might lead to. Might be worse. But then maybe folks not being brain washed in many cases might be better. When I look at the suicide bombers. With out there religious big-gets telling there followers to go and kill.
Global warming. Yes it's happening. Many causes for it. Our ozone layers are taking it on the chin. This has lead to more skin disease.
But I don't think it will affect anyone to bad for another 75 years. So if you have young kids and grandkids they could have to deal with it. We should start doing some things to help prevent it as best we can. Can't hurt to take some small steps to show we do care about our planet.
 

Palehose

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The Eruption and Atmospheric Effects of the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo Event.


Volcanic Gasses

Explosive volcanic eruptions, Such as with the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption, expel large amounts of water, greenhouse gasses, and other gasses into the atmosphere. This includes but is not limited to:
Water vapor, carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, hydrogen chloride, hydrogen fluoride, and ash. (McGee 2001 et al) These ash and gasses can be expelled into the stratosphere to 32.1 Km where sulfur dioxide converts into sulfuric acid that condenses into sulfate aerosols.

The result is an added reflectance of sunlight back into space. In turn this cools the Earths surface and lower atmosphere. The sulfates then absorb the heat-radiated form the Earth and warm the stratosphere. The stratosphere had a resulting in warming of between 2.5 and 3 deg. C. (NASA web page) This may seem contradictory but involves two separate atmospheric levels and the earth's surface.

These sulfate aerosols will also accelerate chemical reactions that destroy the ozone. Ozone destruction allows dangerous levels of ultraviolet radiation to reach the earths surface and can increase the risk of skin cancers. Mid latitude ozone levels reached their lowest recorded concentrations during 1992-93. The ozone hole over Antarctica became the largest ever recorded and in 1991 the ozone levels in the troposphere decreased in time with the Pinatubo aerosol arrival. Mt. Pinatubo 2001)

Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas that allows a warming of the Earth. Volcanic gasses that are added to the atmosphere by volcanic eruptions increases this greenhouse gas and thereby the greenhouse effect. Initially the gaseous products cool the Earth for a period of 1 to 3 years. After the cooling effect is removed the increased carbon dioxide remains to potentially increase global warming.

Large amounts of volcanic ash that is thrown into the atmosphere blocks sunlight. This also causes a world wide cooling trend. Ash spreads out over large areas and can circulate in the atmosphere to cover the entire globe. The ash settles out relatively quickly, in days to months, and has only a short term cooling effect.



AND WE'RE ALL STILL HERE, Thank Heaven.

That eruption also put more CF C's into the atmosphere than all of human industry
combined.


The good Earth is better equipped to clean its self and far less fragile
than some would have us believe.

Care to comment Ocelot ????????
 

shamrock

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I would imagine that anything, such as a volcano, that throws that much shit into the atmosphere, would without question cause some effect, that's only logical.

That being said, human beings have no control over volcanos. How does that effect the idea that we should be at the bare minimum putting more money and research into alternatives to fossil fuels, can anyone dispute this? If for no other reason but to Free ourselves from middle Eastern dependency on oil. Seems to be only to logical to me. It pisses me off seeing things like NASA wasting billions on things like the launch yesterday. In my eyes money would be much better spent in other areas.
 

ferdville

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I would imagine that most rational people would agree that we need to make alternative fuel sources our number one priority. Evidently, the guys in Washington haven't got the message, or more likely, get too many spiffs from the oil people are keeping them from doing so. I think the time is gone when a small entrepreneur could do it on his own, so government will have to fund some serious work in this area. Be interesting to know how much of our money the politicos have earmarked.
 

BobbyBlueChip

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Palehose said:
Care to comment Ocelot ????????

We're actually looking for the EPA's view which was what Manson promised us. Had we asked for Clayton Sneed's 2001 term paper on the subject, the post may be relevant, but even he never said "That eruption also put more CF C's into the atmosphere than all of human industry
combined." Shame, Shame
 

ocelot

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PaleHose, here is my comment. This quote from ferville's source above near the bottom of post #92:

"<Man-made, or "anthropogenic" emissions can make the consequences of volcanic eruptions on the global climate system more severe, Stenchikov says. For instance, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere start a chain of chemical reactions on aerosol surfaces that destroy ozone molecules in the mid-latitude stratosphere, intensifying observed stratospheric ozone depletion.

"While we have no observations, the 1963 Agung eruption on the island of Bali probably did not deplete ozone as there was little atmospheric chlorine in the stratosphere. In 1991 after the Pinatubo eruption, when the amount of CFCs in the stratosphere increased, the ozone content in the mid-latitudes decreased by 5 percent to 8 percent, affecting highly populated regions," says Stenchikov.>"

Please re-read my last post which restates AGAIN my position (post #93).

I suspect that you, PaleHose, may in fact be a Manson alter-ego; however, before I put you on ignore also I ask you as Manson has been asked to provide your source for the statement you placed in red:

"That eruption also put more CFC's into the atmosphere than all of human industry combined."

Neither you or Manson has "produced".
 

CHARLESMANSON

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Looks like when Ocelot is getting destroyed in a debate or has someone who disagrees with him he resorts to "putting them on ignore". The mind of a liberal is a funny thing.

These liberals will argue until the cows come home!! NO MATTER WHAT. I guess no need for a volcano thread after reading all this lol. NASA, USGS, Univ. scientists etc. Ferdville you could give these guys all the factual information in the world and they will still argue with you no matter what. Our case is rested and if these crybabies want to live in denial then that's their problem not ours. :) These people are priceless, predictable, and it's easy to control their emotions with the tug of a string. Here it is a week later and Bobby Blue Chip is still obsesssing on the Environmental Protection Agency!!! Like I said Bobby, I do not get all of my information from the internet. Does that mean it isn't valid?? Whatever, if you don't want to beleive that volcanos cause more damage than humans then that is your problem not mine....ASK A SCIENTIST! I'd say PLENTY of info has been provided in this thread to support the point. Thanks for all who contributed......nice to see a lot of you out there have a brain. :mj07:

The Madjacks liberals willl whine and complain no matter what. It is pretty funny to see them get all hot and bothered over something as boring as a volcano lol. I even like it better when they get all hot and bothered because of ME! :clap: Like I've said before, the shit I come up is only designed to get these liberals to cry and moan and argue and get all emotional. Works everytime. It's a cinch and quite halarious. They always bite the bait. :) Ocelot, you take the cake. You outta get a job with moveon.org so you have something other to do than spend your life 24/7 complaining and arguing with people online. Don't you have a life? lol Glad I could get your panties in a bunch guys. Remember --- just like a puppet on a string :brows: :142smilie
 
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