the infamous parlay dilemma

[prospector]

would you hedge?
-----------------------

The following bet has been placed on your account:

Event 1: Tampa Bay at Ottawa (moneyline) (WON)
Selection 1: Ottawa + 0.0
Date 1: March 31 00:05

Event 2: Columbus at San Jose (moneyline) (WON)
Selection 2: San Jose + 0.0
Date 2: March 31 03:35

Event 3: Michigan v Minnesota (moneyline)
Selection 3: Minnesota + 0.0
Date 3: April 05 00:05

Event 4: Anaheim at Vancouver (WON)
Selection 4: Vancouver - 0.5
Date 4: March 31 03:05

---------------------------------------------------
Bet Amount: Can$250.00
Price: 4.18
Payout: Can$1,045.45
Time Placed: March 30 18:26
Bet Type: Combination Bet

 

[thunderdoll]

I always hedge for a sure payday if possible.

Great picks and good luck to you whatever you decide.

 

[yepitsme]

think about risked money vs. win. hedging cuts your winnings
radically even it is sure money. i personally don't do that
( except if i get new information about on going bet )

stick with your original plan !

good luck

 

[thunderdoll]

Hedging does cut into your winnings but it also cuts your loses!

 

[Birdguts]

why did you make the parlay originally if the intention was to hedge after winning the first three? surely a wiser play would have been to play a 3 game parlay od just bet the games individually! In my opinion it can't possibly be correct to pay the juice on both sides of the wager

 

[prospector]

hedging out of a parlay, to me anyway, has nothing to do with the original wager. so therefore it has nothing to do with my original thoughts on the teams involved in the wager.

what it has to do with is smart money management.

sports wagering for me is all about trying to find the best way to give yourself an opportunity to come out ahead.

imagine:
you are sitting across the table from another poker player. between you and him is a large pile of dough. all the other players are now out of the hand.

you think maybe your cards are better.
he thinks maybe his cards are better.

you are offered the option to split the pot or risk the pot.

 

[Allwrong]

Parlays are an important part of my wagering strategy.
I always look favourably on a time separation in the games for the purpose of hedging.
My general rule is to hedge out my initial wager. If the parlay fails I lose nothing.

 

[Birdguts]

the poker paradigm is perhaps the most ridiculus post i have read to date - poker happens to be how i make my living and the above scenario would never play out - deal making on pots does occasionally happen but rerelt to never with unknown parameters - the hands are shown and the equity determined before splits are made - the only other deals would be running out the final cards a certain predetermined number of times this does nothing to the mathmatical odds in the hands it only reduces fluctations due to shortterm luck- so my apologies for this longwinded response but i do not see how this comparison matters- bottom line is when you made the bet you thought it was a good bet if you still think so play it out if something happened to change your mind then buy out but don't sing the praises of money management - if you sell out of every parlay that you win the first 3 games in your are doomed

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Prospector,

Here are my $.02, Minn should win this game quite easily. Again, if your looking for VALUE here, then hedging would be your best move as you are going to make a profit for sure. But myself being a risk-taker and seeing your on the right side I would just play it out.

GL2U

 

[TexasBC6]

If I were in your shoes, I would definitely hedge. I usually "shade" the hedge so that the original parlay would still return more money, but if it loses then I would still make a smaller profit the other way. In my opinion, the key here is simply making money, not being greedy. The way I see it, there are two options:

1) Since you have Minnesota on the ML and they are a rather large favorite, you wouldn't have to pony up much dough on Mich ML to secure a decent profit either way. The parlay pays about 4 to 1, and in checking around I see Mich is approximately a +180 to +190 underdog. Well, you could put let's say $250 on Michigan ML. That way you still have about $800 in your pocket if Minnesota wins, and if they don't you still have a profit of about $215 or so. (-$250 on the parlay, +$465 on Mich ML) These are approximations, but I'm sure you see what I am getting at. That is the way I personally do it - I hedge so that my original inclination is still the "favored" outcome for me, but I will still end up with +money even if the last part loses.

2) The other possibility I see is to play Michigan +1.5 (-150) and hope for the double win on a Minnesota 1 goal win. I have no clue what the chances of a one goal win would be in this particular game, so I can't really give much of an opinion on this other than to say that the high vigorish would make me stay away.

Like I said, the first option is the way I would personally play it, and it is the way that makes the most sense to me. GL with whatever you decide.

 

[marine]

Birdguts, question on your hedging logic....

Then why are so many deals made at the final table in tournaments?

 

[Allwrong]

hey Marine
I'm halfway through "Flags of our Fathers" if you haven'r read it ... you should.