The Judge's Docket - Holiday Bowl

The Judge

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HOLIDAY BOWL
TEXAS TECH vs. CALIFORNIA ? December 30th, 8:00 pm

California feels that they got screwed by being knocked out of the BCS bowls after they had a very good season going 10-1 and losing only to No. 1 USC whom they actually outgained in their game. There are differing opinions regarding how the Bears will respond to the snubbing with some believing that they will come out with a chip on their shoulder, wanting to prove that they deserved to play on New Year?s Day and others thinking that the wind has been taken out of their sails and that they could come out flat. Regardless of their emotional frame of mind coming into this game, one thing is certain; Texas Tech exceeded their own post season expectations by receiving an invitation to this game and Red Raider HC Mike Leach will have this unit ready to play. However this game turns out, it promises to be one of the most entertaining games on the bowl slate.

Cal has a very balanced two dimensional offense led by QB Aaron Rogers who passed for 2,320 yards this season with a 23 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio. He has benefited from the play of a solid corps of receivers and also from the running game of RB J. J. Arrington who is the nation?s leading rusher with 1,845 yards on the year. What can not be overlooked is the absence of injured WR Geoff McArthur who was the Bears? leading receiver with 57 receptions and 7 touchdowns. The 2nd leading receiver on this team is TE Garrett Cross and he caught only 25 passes this season. The Cal defense has stymied most of their Pac 10 opponents this year but that was not against type of competition that this conference has offered in years past. The secondary has allowed over 212 passing yards per game and that might spell trouble against this pass happy Tech team.

The exploits of Texas Tech QB Sonnie Cumbie have been well chronicled as he has set the NCAA single season record for passing at 4,222 yards which has included 29 passing touchdowns. This offense does not even to pretend to run the ball with any consistency although RB Taurean Henderson has somehow tallied 805 yards on the ground amd 14 touchdowns. These offensive numbers have not exactly been achieved against chump competition as the Red Raiders play in the tough Big 12 South and have had to face top notch teams all year. In their game against Oklahoma, Tech outgained the Sooners by 425 to 372 in total yardage and had a 27 to 18 advantage in first downs. Texas Tech has been known for putting up big passing number the last few years but the biggest improvement for this team this season has been the play of the defense and they finished the regular season ranked 13th in defending the pass thanks to excellent play from their corners.

Both teams played (and lost to) a team that is playing for the national championship and this game may offer some insight to the match-up in the Orange Bowl which also features a team fro the Big 12 and the Pac 10. The oddsmakers have set the Bears as 10.5 point favorites which seems to me to be about a touchdown to high against a Red Raider team that has a good shot an upset.
The Verdict: TEXAS TECH (+10.5)
 

The Judge

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The Red Raiders put their game where Tedford's mouth was and humiliated the #2 team in a very weak PAC 10 conference.

USC will face the same type of ass whipping in the Orange Bowl.
 

MrP

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Oct 17, 2004
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Nice write up and great call Judge, I coattailed. Thanks and GL.
 
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