The Judge's Docket - NCAAF Week 11

[The Judge]

MICHIGAN STATE vs. MINNESOTA ? November 12th, 12:00 EST
Last week the Golden Gophers came out very flat against an inferior team at Indiana and found themselves down 14-7 at the half before putting up 35 points in the 2nd half and pull out a 42-21 victory. Backup RB Gary Russell started that game for injured Laurence Maroney and impressed with 188 yards and three touchdowns. Russell is now averaging 6.9 yards per carry and has rushed for 882 yards to compliment Maroney?s 1,345 rushing yards and making this rushing tandem the most productive in the country. When these two and QB Brian Cupito are clicking, this offense can be very difficult to contain as demonstrated by the 578 total yards the Gophers accumulated against a stellar Ohio State defense. Michigan State?s defense is not even close to that caliber and with Maroney expected to play today, it could be a very long afternoon for the Spartan defense.

After starting their season with four straight wins, Michigan State stumbled in conference play where they have only beaten Illinois and Indiana. The Spartans must win this game or the game next week against Penn State to even become eligible for a bowl game and the prospect of that happening is not looking too good. The 28-21 upset by Purdue last week marked the only cover for the Boilermakers this year and marked the second consecutive week in which MSU failed to get the money. Since their 4-0 start, the Spartans have lost four out of five and are giving up nearly 30 points per game against Big 10 competition. Their offense is still somehow ranked in the Top 10 in the nation but has been very inconsistent and in their last two losses, the defense has allowed over 200 yards rushing in those games.

The Minnesota offense has compiled at least 545 yards in every home game and their attack is extremely balanced. The Gophers should be able to dominate this Spartan defense that does not match up well at all having allowed Michigan, Ohio State, Northwestern and Purdue to all rush for more than 5.0 per carry.
The Verdict: MINNESOTA (-5.5)



Back with more later.

 

[Franky Wright]

GL your honor, but I think this game has already started Or did they move the kickoff back?
Respectfully,
Franky

 

[The Judge]

GL your honor, but I think this game has already started Or did they move the kickoff back?
Respectfully,
Franky

Looks like I posted right at kickoff, Franky. Got a bit of a late start this morning.

 

[Franky Wright]

Looks like I posted right at kickoff, Franky. Got a bit of a late start this morning.

No problem, I like to see what you played before I make my selections! :clap: I have Minnesota also, but probably would have bumped it up a bit if I had seen this
GL the rest of the way

Franky
P.S. I have Wisky at -2*(yesterday) so if you can find a 3, you might want to throw something down on them. The circus atmosphere at Camp Randall is not to be messed with. And I see Bleed has 5* on Iowa, but at the +3*. GL

 

[The Judge]

Adding . . . . . . .

Adding . . . . . . .

GEORGIA vs. VIRGINIA ? November 12th, 3:30 PM EST
After a ?stellar? start to their season with wins over Duke, Syracuse and Western Michigan, Virginia Cavaliers stumbled in road games against Maryland and Boston College before bringing the Seminoles back down to earth by handing them their first loss of the season. That game was followed by another loss at North Carolina, a bye week and then a blowout over a patsy Temple team. Suddenly the Cavs are a four point favorite against this 6-2 Georgia Tech team? I don?t get it.

Sure Virginia is averaging 28.5 points per game but take a look at their schedule. The combined record of the teams the Cavs have played thus far is 29-42 and they have only beaten two teams with a winning record. They lost to a 4-4 Maryland squad and again to a 4-4 Tarheel team in a game where they did not even score a touchdown. Cavalier QB Marques Hagans is averaging less than 200 passing yards per game and has thrown for ten touchdowns and eight interceptions in eight games. The running game is average and is putting up around 150 yards per game but there is no stand out running back on this team. The Cavalier defense has certainly kept them in some games and is giving up only about 125 yards a game to opposing rushers but they rank 11th in the ACC in pass defense, giving 226 yards to opposing passers.

While this team has been riddled with injuries, the biggest problem facing Virginia may be the distraction caused by the suspension of four players earlier in the week. The defense will certainly feel the absence of two of those players as FS Tony Franklin has been a playmaker and NT Kwakou Robinson is also out. This follows DL Rod Darden?s exit due to medical problems and given the fact that Virginia plays a 3-4 defense, the inside positions are looking very thin. Not good news considering that Tech ranks among the conference leaders in rushing offense and has averaged around 209 a game on the ground in their current three game winning streak.

Georgia Tech has faced injury problems of their own this season but the Yellow Jackets are finally getting healthy and that includes their quarterback. With Reggie Ball back at 100 percent, the Jacket offense has shown good balance, averaging 368 yards per game in their last three victories. Tech?s defense is ranked 14th against the run and 10th in pass efficiency, and they have a knack for creating takeaways, as they rank 5th in the country in turnover margin. Tech has allowed an average of just 302 yards per game on defense, and only one team (Virginia Tech) has scored more than 21 points in a game against them. In fact, the Jackets have lost only one game this season by more than three points and in games against the same two common opponents this year the Yellow Jackets win the stats by an average margin of 114 yards per game.

Georgia Tech is a solid road team covering six of their last seven dating back to last year and have allowed an average of only 13 points in those six covers. A small moneyline play seems warranted here.
The Verdict: GEORGIA TECH (+4)

 

[The Judge]

The Verdict: MINNESOTA (-5.5)

Easy winner in the early game.

 

[The Judge]

Adding . . . . . .

Adding . . . . . .

BRIGHAM YOUNG vs. WYOMING ? November 12th, 6:00 PM EST
Wyoming is another team that started off very hot and caught a lot of attention early on. After opening their season at Florida in a 32-14 losing effort, the Cowboys proceeded to beat the next four teams they faced. Then came the meat of the Mountain West and losses to TCU, New Mexico, Colorado State and Utah. In those last four games, the Cowboys committed 17 turnovers including 9 interceptions and were held to less than 300 yards total offense in three of those games.

Brigham Young?s progression this season has been the almost opposite of Wyoming?s as they began the year by dropping three of their first four games only to rally to wins in four of their last five with the only loss coming against Notre Dame. Since October 8th, the Cougars are averaging over 38 points per game and have scored 117 points in their last two contests. BYU QB John Beck has run this offense efficiently with a very balanced passing and rushing attack that is averaging 496 yards of offense over the last five games. Beck has now thrown the ball for 2,869 yards and 20 touchdowns in nine games. This is a scoring machine which has four games under it?s belt with at least 45 points.

Some will point to Wyoming?s pass defense and see that it is giving up only 210 yards per game but a closer look tells the real story. Sure, they held LA Monroe to 126 yards, Air Force to 53 yards, Mississippi to 120 yards, TCU to 112 yards and New Mexico to 118 yards passing but out of all of those teams LA Monroe leads all of the others with an average of only 210 passing yards per game. In their games against teams that like to pass the ball such as Florida, UNLV, Colorado State and Utah they allowed 320, 239, 419 and 384 passing yards respectively. Guess what, BYU likes to pass the ball and they do it very well as indicated above.

The Cowboys gave up 563 yards of offense last week to Utah as they were pummeled by a score of 43-14 while the Mormons won last week 55-14 against UNLV. Wyoming seems to be in a freefall and is having an extremely hard time hanging on to the ball. BYU on the other hand is playing with a great deal of confidence right now and it seems like Beck has a very hot hand. The Cowboys are getting too much credit by the oddsmaker for a strong start but I?ll take the hot team and give up the small points in this one.
The Verdict: BRIGHAM YOUNG (-4.5)

 

[pt1gard]

Pinnix, Judge ... was on gophers too

 

[bjfinste]

Line dropping fast on BYU. -4.5 to -4 to -3.5 to -3 -105 (at betjamaica anyway). Interesting move, but Nevada dropped two points late and they are crusing at the break. Going to ride with you on the Mormons.

 

[pt1gard]

bj, i think one big service has goy on WY, maybe thats why line is dropping .. gl on your play

 

[bjfinste]

1- Yes, it appears Wayne Root is all about the Cowboys today. Way to knock that line down for me!