The Judge's Docket - NCAAF Week 12

The Judge

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IOWA vs. MINNESOTA ? November 13th, 12:00 pm
The winner of this game earns the right to keep a bronze statue of a pig called ?Floyd of Rosedale.? While most of us would not get too excited about this prize, these schools from the north go downright crazy over the chance to pen ?Floyd? in their respective trophy cases each season. Interesting enough, the original ?Floyd? was an actual prize hog that in 1935 was wagered on the outcome of the game by the governors of the two states. For those interested, Minnesota Governor Floyd Olson won (and covered) that wager and was then honored by having the trophy named after him.

Minnesota started this season off with a 5-0 record and then hit a skid, going 1-4 since. It should be noted that two of those losses have been to Top 10 teams Michigan and Wisconsin and all four have been on the road. The Gophers have only one regular season game left to earn a decent bowl invitation and that means putting those losses behind them and getting their potentially devastating running game back on track. Laurence Maroney and Marion Barber are a formidable one-two punch coming out of the backfield and have combined for 2,002 yards this year which ranks the Gophers at No. 7 in rushing nationally. The Gophers actually rank first in the Big Ten in scoring, rushing and total yards with 31.4, 246.9 and 446.9 yards per game in those categories. The Iowa defense can expect to spend a lot of time on the field this Saturday.

Iowa QB Drew Tate has thrown for 1,580 yards this season but the Hawkeyes are down to their 5th string tailback because of injuries. In last week?s game against Purdue, Iowa was only able to run the ball for a total of 43 yards on 34 carries and that lack of a running threat should allow the Gopher defense to concentrate on Tate?s passing game and provide more blitzing opportunities.

Iowa has not played well on the road scoring just 7, 17, 6 and 23 points in those games. Minnesota, on the other hand, has not lost a home game and is averaging over 40 points in the Metrodome. After losing Paul Bunyan?s Axe to Wisconsin last week, look for the Gophers to bring ?Floyd? home to Minnesota after a three year absence.
The Verdict: Minnesota (-3)


NEW MEXICO vs. BRIGHAM YOUNG ? November 13th, 3:00 pm
Both of these Mountain West teams bring three game winning streaks into this game after both started the season 2-4. The BYU Cougars have dominated the series over the years and hold a 39-13-1 advantage over New Mexico, including 20-5 in games played in Provo. A look at BYU?s non-conference schedule would indicate a very bold approach as their first four games were against Notre Dame, Stanford, USC and Boise State. Pretty ballsy.

The bad news for BYU is that Lobos HC Rocky Long is the creator of the blitz-happy 3-3-5 defensive set which has held opponents to just over 104 yards rushing per game this season. The good news for the Mormon?s is that their defensive coordinator, Bronco Mendenhall held that same position last year at New Mexico and has brought similar results to Provo by limiting teams to 130.4 yards on the ground and will undoubtedly be able to provide some insight for the Cougar offense on how to beat this unorthodox scheme.

New Mexico uses a run-first offensive approach that is content to grind it out behind a big and physical offensive line with RB DonTrell Moore who has 832 yards on the year. Lobo QB Kole McKamey has added 882 yards passing but has thrown for only 4 touchdowns all season with 5 interceptions. BYU brings a much more balanced attack with QB John Beck?s 1,726 total passing yards and a 289 yard per game average. His favorite target is WR Todd Watkins who is averaging an amazing 21.2 yards per catch. To compliment their No. 10 ranked passing attack, the Cougars have RB Curtis Brown who has rushed for 100 yards in four straight games.

This is the last home game of the year for BYU and if the Coogs expect to have a winning season, they better get this one as next week they are traveling to play a very hot Utah team to finish out their 2004 campaign. Their chances at a victory look pretty good as they are averaging 33 points per game in conference play while Los Lobos are averaging less than 20 against the same competition pool. Last week the Cougars led San Diego State by a score of 43-3 in the fourth quarter before allowing San Diego to score 13 meaningless points. The week before, New Mexico also beat SDST but their margin of victory was slightly different with a final tally of 19-9.
The Verdict: Brigham Young (-6.5)


CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. BALL STATE ? November 13th, 4:00 pm
Unless you are an alumnus of one of these schools or a resident of Muncie or Orlando, these teams are likely to be off of your radar this week or for that matter this year. The combined record of these two football teams this season is 1-17 with Ball State getting the only win in a 41-14 win over Western Michigan on September 25th. The only other high points of Ball State?s season were holding Boston College to 19 points in their opener and playing Northern Illinois to the very limit. Central Florida actually fell to Buffalo earlier in the year and has now lost a school record 13 straight contests with No. 14 is staring them right in the face as they travel to Ball State.

This game shapes up to be as much of a play against Central Florida as one on Ball State since the Golden Knights have lost all five of their road games by at least 17 points including getting routed by Buffalo by a final score of 48-20. UCF has one of the weakest offenses in the country as the Golden Knights rank last in the nation in total offense and 3rd from last in scoring, averaging just 260.4 yards and 14.9 points a game. Ball State is coming off one of its most impressive performances on offense in an overtime loss to Northern Illinois last week where the Cards produced 244 passing yards and 154 rushing yards. The Cardinals are rested and ready after a bye week and will do whatever it takes to not earn the distinction of being the only team to be beaten by Central Florida this year.
The Verdict: Ball State (-3)


RICE vs. UTEP ? November 13th, 5:00 pm
Out in the West Texas town of El Paso, there lives a team that has quietly accumulated a six game ATS winning streak which just happens to be the longest in the nation. With the same players from their 2-11 team of last year, UTEP?s 2004 record is now 6-2, equaling the wins of the previous three seasons combined! Last week the Miners were ranked in the AP Poll for the first time and this week they are 24th in the BCS standings. Their only losses have been to No. 20 Arizona State and No. 13 Boise State and the Miners bring a five game winning streak into this game.

UTEP HC Mike Price was fired from Alabama in May of 2002 for failing to live his ?personal and professional life in a manner consistent with university policies.? Come on, what is wrong with (allegedly) sleeping with strippers and (allegedly) propositioning Bama coeds? UTEP gave Price a chance when no one else would and Price, who is a strong candidate for national coach of the year, has taken the Miners to a place few thought they would be.

Rice began their 2004 season with high hopes and promises to diversify their offense but HC Ken Hatfield?s Owls are ranked dead last in the country in passing with an average of 52 yards per game. While the Hooter?s No. 1 ranked running game has been averaging 312 yards per game, UTEP?s defense has not allowed a team to rush for 200 yards against them all year and has forced 25 turnovers this season. The Owls allow 32.3 points per game which is far too many for a team that relies on a ball control offense.

These two teams going opposite directions as the Owls are in an ugly slide having lost four straight games and are 1-6 since winning their first two games of the season. Their wins have come against Houston, Hawaii and SMU and they are in way over their heads in this WAC contest against one of the hottest teams in the country. Oh yeah, did I mention that the Miners? quarterback Jordan Palmer has passed for 1,648 yards and 14 touchdowns this season? He has a brother you may have heard of; his name is Carson.
The Verdict: UTEP (-16)
 
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The Judge

Pura Vida!
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Aug 5, 2004
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3* - Fresno State (-21)
2* - S. Mississippi (+6)
2* - S. Miss/Memphis Under (58)
 

The Judge

Pura Vida!
Forum Member
Aug 5, 2004
4,909
29
0
SJO
5* - Minnesota (-3)
5* - BYU (-6.5)
5* - Ball State (-3)
5* - UTEP (-15)
2* - Texas (-23)

3-0 last night. Good luck today!
 
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