The Judge's Docket - NFC Championship

The Judge

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ATLANTA vs. PHILADELPHIA ? 3:00 pm
Two of the NFL?s most exciting quarterbacks, Donavan McNabb and Michael Vick, face each other for just the second time ever in the NCF Championship Game in Philadelphia this afternoon. This will be Philadelphia?s third consecutive trip to this game which decides who will advance to the Super Bowl and they have fallen on their face in each of those three chances. In 2002 the St. Louis Rams were billed as ?The Greatest Show on Turf? and lived up to the hype by taking care of the Eagles handily. The 2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers brought one of the best defenses of all time to Philly on their way to winning the Super Bowl and last year?s Carolina Panthers simply outplayed an arguably better Eagles? team at home.

On the other side of the field, the Atlanta Falcons are playing this late in the season for only the second time in their 39 year history and if they are to advance to play in Jacksonville in two weeks, they will have to roll into the City of Brotherly Love and play spoiler to Andy Reid and his Eagles again. If you look at the situational match-up, you have to believe that will be a daunting task.

While Michael Vick?s scambling ability is nothing short of freakish and is the reason that they led the NFL in rushing this season, the Falcons are the first team ever to make it to the Championship game after allowing more yards than they gained in the 17 games it took to get here. Two years ago in the Divisional Playoff Game was the last time the Eagles faced Vick, and they were able to limit his mobility and come away with a 20-6 win. Since then this defense has added LB Jeriamiah Trotter and DE Jevon Kearse to their ranks and in 2004, allowed the fewest points in the league prior to resting the starters in the last two regular season games. The Eagles can be counted on to stack the box against the Falcons which should force Vick get rid of the ball early. The Falcons? passing game is not what got them here and in fact they finished 29th in the league in that department with less than 150 yards per game and Vick will be facing an Eagles secondary with three Pro Bowlers which is perhaps the best in the league. Finally, the Falcons? third down conversion rate is only 36.3% and that simply won?t get it against this Eagle defense.

Philly?s defense allowed more than 17 point only three times this season and at home they allowed just over two touchdowns a game. In the six games prior to clenching home field throughout the playoffs, the Eagles had allowed an average of just under 12 points per game and held five of those six opponents to 88 yards rushing or less. The home field advantage in Philly is one of the best in the country and this week, the city has been hit hard by a snow storm and current conditions indicate that this game will be played on grass and in windy conditions with the temperature in the low 20?s. Not exactly the conditions that Vick and Company are used to in the cozy confines of their own domed stadium.

There was no lack of big-play offense in the Eagles game against the Vikings last week, even with All Pro wide receiver Terrell Owens watching from a luxury box. Thanks to a clutch performance by WR Freddie Mitchell, who finished with five catches for 65 yards and two touchdowns, the Eagles beat the Vikings 27-14. Brian Westbrook is one of the most versatile offensive players in the NFL and is a serious threat whether it be running the ball, catching the ball out of the backfield or even lining up as a wide receiver. The Philly offense averaged 5.9 yards per play during the regular season and scored an average of 24.1 points per game. The Falcon?s defense is was on of the worst on the road in the league in 2004, allowing 25.7 points per game and played the NFC?s weakest straight up schedule. The Eagles should win this one easily this afternoon and finally get their chance at the big trophy.
The Verdict: PHILADELPHIA (-6)
 

The Judge

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