The Limper NBA 2025-26 – Week 3

[WillyBoy]

When it works, for ATS record keeping, the model automatically sweeps and averages the closing lines of half-a-dozen Vegas sportsbooks every day. When it doesn’t work – which is often – I need to do it manually, unless I’m out of town as I was last week, in which case it simply isn’t done at all. Well, the “automatic” sweep failed while I was away, and trying to manually retrieve those closing lines is more trouble than it’s worth, so I’m not doing it and just moving on.

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[Goldylock$]

Does/How does this account for injuries, and all the unknown that comes with it?

 

[WillyBoy]

Does/How does this account for injuries, and all the unknown that comes with it?

Excellent question! The answer is a model like mine, for the most part relying on past performance, doesn’t do well enough, by itself, to be a reliable money-maker. You can make money, as I do, following a handful of teams, knowing their numbers, and their tendencies, a knowledge that only comes from actually watching them play. The projections I post can be useful as a guide, but only that. It does take into account player injuries and expected minutes of playing time, but last minute line-up changes are a killer. Knowing teams – players and coaches – makes all the difference.

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

A lot of disappointed players given a rough week for the model against the spread, and, if it was a crystal ball, I’d switch to reading tea leaves. But, the model is NOT a prediction machine. It’s not best-guessing or coin-flipping; it eats numbers then spits them out – pure and simple. And, the fact is, it’s doing what it’s coded to do; it projects straight-up game-winners at a respectable rate, with a margin of victory well within a margin of error. The only “failure” is one that I can’t control – last minute line-up changes. Which, taking Sunday, for example, resulted in 3 last minute line flips by Vegas line-setters – half the games played; and the model can’t project the whims of players and coaches. If I was AI, I would post minutes before tip-off for each game (when I place my own wagers), with line-ups, more or less secure. But I’m a not a robot, I’m human with a life, and way-too-early posts is the best I can do.