The Limper NBA Playoffs 2025-26 – Week 2

[WillyBoy]

Last week, the model crashed and, if it didn’t burn, there was significant smoke. When past-performance numbers suddenly drop or, just as suddenly, explode, an entire season’s data can look like shit – and is the shit the model relies on. That said, against just a handful of recent games’ numbers, the data of the previous 82 games still has weight, and I’m not about to pull the plug. The model’s has had, in past years, its share of poor Playoffs starts and has come around, and I’m counting on that happening again. Hopefully sooner than later. GLTA

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[ramayada]

How do i read this data? can you please explain

 

[WillyBoy]

How do i read this data? can you please explain

What the numbers show are, in terms of what I prioritize: 1. The projected SU Winner and MOV. This is the result/object of the algorithm I use. I compare the MOV number against whatever odds I get, and that renders my pick for the game. In the case of today’s game, with Tatum OUT, the MOV has dropped significantly to Boston winning by 3.3, which is less than the current Vegas odds of Boston -4.5 (the same I’m getting from my bookie). This makes the model’s current pick Philly +4.5, (Because I’m a long-time Celtics fan, however, and because, at the MOV projection of only 3.3 points, it looks like a coin-flip game, so I’m passing.) 2. Home/Away stats should be self-explanatory, and along with the Home/Away record (which this frame hasn’t room for but is easily available) is also a priority for me, along with: 3. the team’s record against over .500 teams (which my Week 1 post includes). I run a separate Player Value Above Replacement program, which is what resulted in Boston’s projection drop.