The Limper NFL ? 2018 ? Week 7

[WillyBoy]

Up until now, the Limper has acted like a blind man throwing darts at a moving dartboard. The results so far are right down there with the first couple of seasons when I hatched this model, and it?s hard ? but not impossible ? to explain.

All statistical projections are based on prior performance numbers (PPNs), and the numbers I use are completely reliable. Also, PPNs are ? honest to goodness ? fair indicators of what will happen in the future. These are demonstrable facts. When I run these numbers through the first 6 weeks, the SU and ATS results are through the roof, which, of course, are false indicators of reliability. However, side by side comparisons of projected stats, game by game, of say ? yards gained rushing, or pass completion percentage, vs specific matchups - are well within the margin of error ? which means the model?s calculations are valid. Valid, but ? when it comes to being indicators of future events ? sadly wrong. At least, wrong thus far.

What has happened this season is that teams and players have been ? over and over ? either exceeding their PPNs or failing to meet to meet those PPNs by wide margins ? from one week to the next. As a rule, this doesn?t happen as routinely as it has this season and, unless this season ends up as an extreme outlier, this should settle down.

At least, that?s the hope.

 

[WillyBoy]

Final Projections for MNF

Final Projections for MNF

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[WillyBoy]

Every year since I began posting my model?s projections, I have tried to develop a reliable Over / Under projection model. Never succeeded. But, like they say: if you don?t succeed the first time, try, try again ? and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again, and again?

I ran it for weeks 5 and 6, and it went 8-2, so based on data thru week six, this is the 2018 version ? FWIW.

(The Delta, as indicated, is the difference between the model?s projected totals and the current O/U line. There is no correspondence with the model?s projected spread totals, and the totals used to determine the O/U picks. Posted are the top 5 games, ranked according the delta.)

 

[WillyBoy]

 

[bosbabiesarm]

I?ve been watching football for 30 years or so and so far the referees are a bigger part of the final outcome that I could remember. Idk if or you can figure that in . :mj03:x37:

 

[SodApOp PIMPski]

Have you ever taken into account a 6 point tease decrease into your delta based on your formula and if so what were the results? Just curious as you have the indy game as a under with a 1.9 delta which I tend to.agree with but it's a bet I took the over with a 6pt line decrease.

 

[WillyBoy]

I?ve been watching football for 30 years or so and so far the referees are a bigger part of the final outcome that I could remember. Idk if or you can figure that in . :mj03:x37:

Ref crew tendencies are a variable I use in both the totals and spreads calculations ? but, regardless of the numbers, I stay away from crews like Walt Anderson?s, because guys like that relish being the center of attention. This week Anderson?s crew is doing the London game, Titans vs. Chargers, about which you can only be sure there will be a ton of flags.

 

[WillyBoy]

Have you ever taken into account a 6 point tease decrease into your delta based on your formula and if so what were the results? Just curious as you have the indy game as a under with a 1.9 delta which I tend to.agree with but it's a bet I took the over with a 6pt line decrease.

I haven?t run a 6 point tease differential ? up or down ? for the season against my numbers, but I do know the only thing that?s saved me this season has been teasing Overs and the AFC North. Minus the teaser 6, Overs lead 49 to 43 Unders for the season, and the AFC North is 15-9 ATS.

 

[SodApOp PIMPski]

I haven?t run a 6 point tease differential ? up or down ? for the season against my numbers, but I do know the only thing that?s saved me this season has been teasing Overs and the AFC North. Minus the teaser 6, Overs lead 49 to 43 Unders for the season, and the AFC North is 15-9 ATS.

I found teasing spreads down to 40 or below seem to be a sweet spot, depending on the matchup of course.