lately there has been a lot of negative opinions expressed about the market. Nasdaq has gotten slammed and the Dow has seen better times also.
I do not try to time the markets but here are some of my thoughts:
1. greenspan will lower rates by at least 75 basis points. not to save the market but the economy.
2. oil will trade below $25 a barrel, I think $23 but that is what i thought last year.
3. when Biggs turns bullish I will be worried
4. everyone should be in the market to some extent. small investors can take part in the market through mutual funds (or index products) or indivual stocks (dividend reinvestments and share purchase plans.) though different asset classes perform better at certain times I will take equities over the long run.
5. there are many stocks trading at cheap valuations less than 15X earnings (earings expected to grow).
6. quite a bit of cash is on the sidelines, waiting....
7. large investors lose money just like small investors, and make it.
8. Amazon.com is a terrible stock to own. I thought so at $100 and I still believe this under $20. when will they make money. books are low margin, then they go into other products that have even lower margins. Jeff always said "profits are not important at this time" someday they will be.someday....
9. tech stocks have been badly beaten up, the good ones come back. internet retailers, do not.
10. myth: when the common person becomes interested in the market it is a sign of a top, BS.... I am in a shareclub of 30 people. everyone is there to help one another and I would take a conservative (DRIP,SPP) portfolio over most of the latest brokerages recommendations.
11. went to chapters (large bookstore=borders, barnes and noble) and there use to be large display of businees books now they are replaced by art books, and the business, investment, accounting books are on two small shelfs.
12. in march and april I heard from 3 people who borrowed 2nd mortgage to go in the market (these people did not check into the risks). now I hear about people who are just bailing and claim they are not going to invest again.
13. you can also make money in a declining market buy puts on the market or stocks, or just short stocks. I know of some short sellers in March that were getting killed. everything comes around.
the markets may go lower, however there are some stocks I watch if they go on sale 5-15% better for me. I will buy them.
happy hollidays, everyone, and good luck next year.
thanks
selkirk
[This message has been edited by selkirk (edited 12-22-2000).]
I do not try to time the markets but here are some of my thoughts:
1. greenspan will lower rates by at least 75 basis points. not to save the market but the economy.
2. oil will trade below $25 a barrel, I think $23 but that is what i thought last year.
3. when Biggs turns bullish I will be worried
4. everyone should be in the market to some extent. small investors can take part in the market through mutual funds (or index products) or indivual stocks (dividend reinvestments and share purchase plans.) though different asset classes perform better at certain times I will take equities over the long run.
5. there are many stocks trading at cheap valuations less than 15X earnings (earings expected to grow).
6. quite a bit of cash is on the sidelines, waiting....
7. large investors lose money just like small investors, and make it.
8. Amazon.com is a terrible stock to own. I thought so at $100 and I still believe this under $20. when will they make money. books are low margin, then they go into other products that have even lower margins. Jeff always said "profits are not important at this time" someday they will be.someday....
9. tech stocks have been badly beaten up, the good ones come back. internet retailers, do not.
10. myth: when the common person becomes interested in the market it is a sign of a top, BS.... I am in a shareclub of 30 people. everyone is there to help one another and I would take a conservative (DRIP,SPP) portfolio over most of the latest brokerages recommendations.
11. went to chapters (large bookstore=borders, barnes and noble) and there use to be large display of businees books now they are replaced by art books, and the business, investment, accounting books are on two small shelfs.
12. in march and april I heard from 3 people who borrowed 2nd mortgage to go in the market (these people did not check into the risks). now I hear about people who are just bailing and claim they are not going to invest again.
13. you can also make money in a declining market buy puts on the market or stocks, or just short stocks. I know of some short sellers in March that were getting killed. everything comes around.
the markets may go lower, however there are some stocks I watch if they go on sale 5-15% better for me. I will buy them.
happy hollidays, everyone, and good luck next year.
thanks
selkirk
[This message has been edited by selkirk (edited 12-22-2000).]