The Old Sytem Play - Preseason

SQUARECROW

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Someday I may actually have time to explain all of this to you.
(Although the only people I would ever explain this to outside of
my family, would be to Jack or Cow. If I can ever make
the Vegas trip one of these years.)

But for now just know that my pre-season starts today. I will
be posting as many days as I can during this baseball season.

With a wife, many children, 14 hour a day work schedule and
a golf game/league to worry about. Most posts will be short and to the point.

My season runs from May 1, until August 31. This allows
me to have numbers to work with off the beginning of the season
and stops before all of the call-ups and trades change the
degree of chemistry of teams at the end.


San Fran - 155 2 Unit Home Fav

Now, my posts will try to keep up with what I actually post, and
also what I actually play. which will be undoubtedly two
different numbers. Those that know me here fully understand
my schedule and that I truly love this joint. I wish I could be
here everyday, but realistically I will not be.

The system itself is based upon numerous factors that
not only reflect the certain ability of a team vs. another team.
but also tends that a team is on, and or that the pitching
numbers reflect as well. It takes me a lot of time to gather
and determine all of this information. Over the years it
has become a little quicker, but it is still a lot of work.

I will start this season at $ 5000, I really do not care how
this relates to what you bet. My wagers can be changed
out from whatever your starting point is from tens, hundreds,
to thousands. Mine is hundreds. So in the above case
scenario, I will be putting down $310 to win $ 200. Maybe this
works for you, and maybe it does not. I will not change what
I do, no matter what the public opinion is. That is what has worked for me for the past 8 seasons.

There will be two types of plays 2 Unit Home Fav's and
1 Unit Road Fav's. On some days there will be one, some days
one of each, and some days none. On average there will be
anywhere from 24 to 34 plays a month.

I know the critics will rave about playing staright Fav's. I will
not endeavor to explain or argue those points with people. However if I do my math, what I'm really looking for within these
plays is to pick those favorites at a time that it makes the most sense to do so. Nothing less and nothing more ! It is about making money. This is simply what has worked for me. I ain't
buying nothing and I sure in the hell ain't selling nothing.






:)
 

superbook

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I look forward to your plays. Thanks for posting.

How has your system done over your 8 years if you don't mind me asking?

A one-day preseason as your season starts tomorrow!!! LOL

Your pre-season play looks solid.

gl
 

loophole

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good to see you back squarecrow, hope everything and everyone fine in your neck of the woods. haven't heard from our bovine buddy in a while, but i would think that if anything would draw him up out of deep cover it would be your post. he couldn't resist. good luck with the giants - i would think you can't go wrong fading the phillies' bullpen
 

SQUARECROW

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I hate pre-season

I hate pre-season

Superbook, glad to meet you. It has had a pretty consistent
past history. The more time I had to devote to it the better it
worked, and the less errors I made in following the numbers
that I needed.

Like anything else, when you hurry. It becomes much easier
to make a mistake. Thus making plays that should have not been,
or missing some that should have been plays.

The numbers look a little like this:

1996 - May 24-4
June 23-1
July 25-5
Aug 23-3

1997- May 22-6
June 18-4
July 23-5
Aug 22-4


2001 - May 17-7
June 24-6
July 24-4
Aug 18-4

The other books have been lost in all the moves, the money
I have bet over the years as been different, depending on
what I had, and or what the family needed more.

You also most remember those numbers look pretty good, however when playing primarily solid / heavy favorites they need to be high. I will say this I've made money each year. Just more sometimes than others.

The biggest mistake I make is when I'm in a big hurry, and
or not following the rules I created all those years ago. Yeah
that discipline thing can really be a pain.


Loophole,

Nice to see ya here, lets not bring that bovine guy into things.

I have had to change my name, and I've bought that damn
guy more booze and cigars than any one mortal cow could ever
use.

Besides being the famous animal he has become, he probably
don't have time for a normal guy like me. I mean computers.
commericals, singing, dancing, drinking and Mooing like that
leaves a guy udderly drained. Damn, everywhere I go nowadays
I see that stinking bum, but none of those times are worse than
when I wake up at 2 AM screaming cause the freak got the best
of me.

Take care LOOP, be good my firend !!
 

superbook

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Scarecrow --

Thanks for your response. I look forward to following your plays during the "regular" season.

You might be interested to know that the three power rating systems that I follow: Massey, Sauceda and Markov; all give the Giants a significant edge tonight at the 75+% confidence level.

FWIW I've played SF on the runline: -1.5 +130.

- Jon
 

MadJack

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:director: GLAD TO SEE YOU HERE!!

DON'T BE A STRANGER AND SAY HI TO THE FAMILY FOR ME!
 

SQUARECROW

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Need to mention

Need to mention

Speaking of discipline, a little focus here would not be so
bad either.

Like mentioning the fact that it must be the listed starters:

Padilla vs. L. Hernadez


Also, no way I have never used this to bet a run line. All
the numbers above of the decent results, there have
been way to many one run games on the list to pretend that it would be a winning proposition to do so.

I wish I could say it worked and maybe from time to time, and from game to game it may. Although for my money the run line
is not something I have luck in, nor is this system adjusted towards.

Good luck, and if you see Old Moo Mouth, tell him hey for me.
 

superbook

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From another poster, moneyline vs. runline ytd:

April 1 - 29:

Total Road Favorites: 135
Road Favorites Winning by more than 1: 57
Road Favorites winning by 1: 10
Total Road Favorite Winners: 67
Total Road Favorite Losers: 68

Total Home Favorites: 227
Home Favorites Winning by more than 1: 87
Home Favorites Winning by 1: 43
Total Home Favorite Winners: 130
Total Home Favorite Losers: 97

ASSUME (big assumption) that the average Road Favorite was -130. Therefore the Road Favorite on the Run Line would be +115. ASSUME the average Home Favorite was -150 & the Home Favorite on the Run Line would be +140.

IF you played every favorite, here's how it would have played out:

Playing the Money Line:
Road Favorites Win 67 units
Road Favorites Lose 88.4 units (68 X 1.3)
Home Favoites Win 130 units
Home Favorites Lose 146 units (97 X 1.5)

Playing the Run Line:
Road Favorites Win 65.6 units (57 X 1.15)
Road Favorites Lose 68 units
Home Favorites Win 122 units (87 X 1.4)
Home Favorites Lose 97 units


So when Home Favs win, they win by 1+ about 2/3 of the time. And that betting all Home Favs on the RL would put you up while betting all Home Favs on the ML would have you in the hole.
 
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