The Rule Of 3

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Nickelback

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Many of you may already be familiar with this "rule" that comes around this time of the year:

If a team faces a "roughly" similar opponent that they have lost to the first two times they have met them in a given year, the third time is usually the charm. Its very difficult to beat a team three straight times in one season unless they are double digit dogs every single time you play them. My favorite example is Michigan/Illinois in 1989 when Michigan played a better Illinois team in the Final Four for the third time that year and won despite losing both conference games and won the National Championship two days later.

Tonight we have a very fishy line with Gonzaga/San Diego with the Zags only laying 2 points. Zags won the two conference games and now meet San Diego for the automatic tournament berth tonight. Motivation has to go with San Diego here as they must have this win to play in the NCAA tournament where the Zags may get in as an at large.

I'm playing San Diego very big here tonight. GL
 
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Nickelback

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ststrl,

Sure looks like it to me. . . especially with 75% on NC Willmington. . .

Juu3,

You have good company with the Zags as I see almost 90% are on them tonight at my favorite consensus site. Just looks too damn easy and I think the public gets hit hard tonight.
 
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Nickelback

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Let me point something else out on the Gonzaga game. . . Zags have won the last 9 meetings between these teams. So why are the Zags only a 2 point favorite tonight???? This game is going to be on ESPN. . . do you really think Vegas would be so willing to take it up the ass on a game like this? LOL. . .San Diego is the only play here.
 
Juu3

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I see you feel strongly about this play, so i will look more into it the rest of the day. Game time is latenight so i've got time.

I was thinking about putting them in a tease with UncW., might just give San D. more pts.
 
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Nickelback

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Some additional stats from the past 5 games including the game played between the Gonzaga and San Diego:

FG%: Zags 41%, San Diego 50%
3 FG% Zags 37%, San Diego 48%

San Diego shot significantly worse against the Zags on March 1st yet only lost the game by 3 points. As long as they shoot a little better and maybe even close to their recent average, we'll be fine tonight.
 
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I don't see anything wrong or fishy with the line. Zags closed as a 1.5 favorite ten days ago when they played at SD...won that game by 3. Line isn't going to be much different in this short of a time span especially when that game was relatively close.
 
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Nickelback

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Hoops,

I saw that as well. . . I guess its fishy in the sense that 90% (or very close to 90%) are on the Zags tonight so others expected the Zags to be more of a favorite than they are.

Are you playing this game tonight?
 
gjn23

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Since I was at the games last night and follow this conference here is some info:

1) Corey Violette (zags big man) hurt his ankle (maybe knee) in the second half last night and was carried off the court. Not sure of status for tonights game.

2) Rony Turiaf was also holding his knee late in the game but kept playing. I'd say he shouldn't have any problems.

3) Despite it being a home court for USD, the Zags will have more (and louder) people tonight. Maybe 60-40 split in favor or the Zags.

4) Recent shooting performances are irrelaveant. Teams were different last year. This years Zags team in NOT NEARLY as good as they were last year.

5) THe spread was Zags -2 last weekend so -2 today is correct.

6) Don't think the Zags are assured of a bid even if they lose. Their RPI is weaker than it has been in the past few years and they had some BAD losses. If I were to guess I'd say they probably would get a bid if they lost, but it would be 50/50

7) USD has the size inside and love to pound it in there. Their outside shooting is a little suspect.

8) USD actuallyhas played better on the road than at home this year.

9) If USD is EVER going to win this tourney, this is the year. Everyone is down, they got a bye into the semis and it's the last year they are hosting.

10) Last weeks game was a dd lead for the Zags who missed FT and turnovers in the last 2 mins to get USD back in the game.

My homer and heart bet is with USD (i did bet the Zags last weekend however) but as my friend says "The WCC needs the Zags in the tourney, they are theiry best chance at winning a game and exposure thus they will get most of the calls tonight"

Might look at the total and take the over as the side looks scary and would most likely be a "rooting interest bet".
 
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Nickelback

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Congrats to those on San Diego. . . I still think the Zags will slip in to the tourney, but we'll find out on Sunday :D
 
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nicely done nickel.
zags still make the dance with no problem at all.
but toreros definitely a nice win
 
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