The 1st Round of the NBA Playoffs have offered up plenty of exciting games and though many of the series may have been a mere formality as far as which team will advance...the point-spreads and totals have provided some extremely close calls throughout...
Thus far, we've seen a good mix of Favs and Dogs getting the money and the same can be said for Overs and Unders..though we usually see more UNDERS get the cash overall due to "inflated" prices..
That is also usually the case with DOGS but as the betting market get's more sophisticated with each passing year, it's not automatic that books do well everytime a Dog gets there..
Bottom line, in the post-season "public" money far outweighs "wiseguy" money and what books try to do is steer recreational bettors to the OTHER side of what wiseguys are on..or try to find themselves having the best of it when wiseguys are on the sidelines and the public comes in on ONE side..
Granted, when you get 11 to 10 you are always getting the best of it..but books also know going in that there will be times they are forced to take a position and in those cases, they'll want to try and have bettors take the worst of the line or total..
Finally, once again we are seeing a lot of "market manipulation" being done by the most respected betting syndicates and wiseguys..such as "head fakes" to get a better price later, "edging-off" anticipated money they'll have to book by getting out ahead of the market, etc..according to the "movers" we have access too..
Tonight we have an all important GAME 6 between MEMPHIS and LA CLIPPERS that can end the series with win by the home team who is up 3-2..And with the line sent out by Oddsmakers, betting syndicates saw a perfect opportunity to not only lock in some FREE MONEY..but also take care of an "edge-off" as well..
GRIZZLIES at CLIPPERS :
The bettors beat the books in Games 1 and 4..while the books got the money in Games 2,3, & 5..Suprisingly, the public has backed the DOG in 3 of the 5 games thus far and we've seen the FAV cover in 3 of 5..
So this has been a very good series for the books heading into Game 6 tonight..
The TOTAL has produced 3 winners for the public in the 5 games so far after they backed the OVER in EVERY game..Fortunately for books, much of the money they take on Totals from recreational bettors is tied into parlays and teasers, forcing a sweep to profit...And wiseguys usually help them attain balanced on straight bets to where they can sit back and sweep up the vig..
For Game 6, bookmakers opened the LA CLIPPERS at -1.5 and even -2 (-105)..and wiseguys had little doubt the betting public would back the Grizzlies in anticipation of a Game 7..so they went to work and had "movers" set up a FREE MONEY scalp and "edge-off"..
I've been able to confirm via 3 different movers that they were instructed to back the GRIZZLIES +105 and higher (Pinny +111) to set the scalp up..and also grab +1.5 and +1 to take care of the "edge-off"...
With books also aware the public would be on Memphis, they went ahead and adjusted the price and made the Road Team a -1.5pt Favorite..And as more money comes in on the Grizzlies we may even see this line climb some more..
The fact a "middle" won't be attempted will definitely confirm what these "movers" shared because if it wasn't the case, rest assured as soon as the line hit -2..you would see it immediately drop down to as low as a PICK..
Instead, when the line got to MEM -1.5 those same movers went ahead and bet the CLIPPERS +105 (Pinny +110)...but left the point-spread alone...
When the dust settled they had made 5 cents on every $200 bet for a ROI of 2.5% with absolutely NO RISK...not too bad for a couple hours work..
Just as important, they were able to edge-off all that Grizzlies money that they'll book from their clients at +1.5 and +1..while their clients will lay -1.5 on them tonight..I've moved money for enough betting syndicates through the years and know guys who still do, so believe me when I tell you that almost all of them also BOOK..
This puts them in a position where they can not only take their clients money at 11 to 10..but also win or push their own bet...Again, not a bad spot to be in on a game that will attract a ton of volume..
In conclusion..there is NO "true steam" position on the SIDE got Game 6..
Looking at the TOTAL..no surprise the public is coming right back with the OVER even after losing in Game 5..But once again the wiseguys believe books put up an "inflated" price in anticipation of that overwhelming public money..and went ahead and STEAMED the UNDER..
So books should end up with some balance on the Total though they seem to want to take a position with the wiseguys by dropping the line to entice even more OVER money..But don't be surprised if it climbs up some as we approach tip-off in an attempt to have bettors take a worse number..
Parlays & Teasers will be pending on the "OVER" as well regardless of what side is taken..though it'll be the Memphis side that's on more tickets for sure..
Thus far, we've seen a good mix of Favs and Dogs getting the money and the same can be said for Overs and Unders..though we usually see more UNDERS get the cash overall due to "inflated" prices..
That is also usually the case with DOGS but as the betting market get's more sophisticated with each passing year, it's not automatic that books do well everytime a Dog gets there..
Bottom line, in the post-season "public" money far outweighs "wiseguy" money and what books try to do is steer recreational bettors to the OTHER side of what wiseguys are on..or try to find themselves having the best of it when wiseguys are on the sidelines and the public comes in on ONE side..
Granted, when you get 11 to 10 you are always getting the best of it..but books also know going in that there will be times they are forced to take a position and in those cases, they'll want to try and have bettors take the worst of the line or total..
Finally, once again we are seeing a lot of "market manipulation" being done by the most respected betting syndicates and wiseguys..such as "head fakes" to get a better price later, "edging-off" anticipated money they'll have to book by getting out ahead of the market, etc..according to the "movers" we have access too..
Tonight we have an all important GAME 6 between MEMPHIS and LA CLIPPERS that can end the series with win by the home team who is up 3-2..And with the line sent out by Oddsmakers, betting syndicates saw a perfect opportunity to not only lock in some FREE MONEY..but also take care of an "edge-off" as well..
GRIZZLIES at CLIPPERS :
The bettors beat the books in Games 1 and 4..while the books got the money in Games 2,3, & 5..Suprisingly, the public has backed the DOG in 3 of the 5 games thus far and we've seen the FAV cover in 3 of 5..
So this has been a very good series for the books heading into Game 6 tonight..
The TOTAL has produced 3 winners for the public in the 5 games so far after they backed the OVER in EVERY game..Fortunately for books, much of the money they take on Totals from recreational bettors is tied into parlays and teasers, forcing a sweep to profit...And wiseguys usually help them attain balanced on straight bets to where they can sit back and sweep up the vig..
For Game 6, bookmakers opened the LA CLIPPERS at -1.5 and even -2 (-105)..and wiseguys had little doubt the betting public would back the Grizzlies in anticipation of a Game 7..so they went to work and had "movers" set up a FREE MONEY scalp and "edge-off"..
I've been able to confirm via 3 different movers that they were instructed to back the GRIZZLIES +105 and higher (Pinny +111) to set the scalp up..and also grab +1.5 and +1 to take care of the "edge-off"...
With books also aware the public would be on Memphis, they went ahead and adjusted the price and made the Road Team a -1.5pt Favorite..And as more money comes in on the Grizzlies we may even see this line climb some more..
The fact a "middle" won't be attempted will definitely confirm what these "movers" shared because if it wasn't the case, rest assured as soon as the line hit -2..you would see it immediately drop down to as low as a PICK..
Instead, when the line got to MEM -1.5 those same movers went ahead and bet the CLIPPERS +105 (Pinny +110)...but left the point-spread alone...
When the dust settled they had made 5 cents on every $200 bet for a ROI of 2.5% with absolutely NO RISK...not too bad for a couple hours work..
Just as important, they were able to edge-off all that Grizzlies money that they'll book from their clients at +1.5 and +1..while their clients will lay -1.5 on them tonight..I've moved money for enough betting syndicates through the years and know guys who still do, so believe me when I tell you that almost all of them also BOOK..
This puts them in a position where they can not only take their clients money at 11 to 10..but also win or push their own bet...Again, not a bad spot to be in on a game that will attract a ton of volume..
In conclusion..there is NO "true steam" position on the SIDE got Game 6..
Looking at the TOTAL..no surprise the public is coming right back with the OVER even after losing in Game 5..But once again the wiseguys believe books put up an "inflated" price in anticipation of that overwhelming public money..and went ahead and STEAMED the UNDER..
So books should end up with some balance on the Total though they seem to want to take a position with the wiseguys by dropping the line to entice even more OVER money..But don't be surprised if it climbs up some as we approach tip-off in an attempt to have bettors take a worse number..
Parlays & Teasers will be pending on the "OVER" as well regardless of what side is taken..though it'll be the Memphis side that's on more tickets for sure..
