Hi all,
Well, I took 24 hours off to lick my wounds, but I am back. This has been, without a doubt, my absolute worst NFL season. Scary really. This is a place I have never been. A little background for anyone who is interested. Maybe, some of you can relate.
This is my 9th season of 'capping the NFL. It's the only sport I do well (or at least, I used to). In the previous eight years I have lost money for the season a grand total of once (2002 - lost about $1000). In all the other years since '96 I have been profitable... not always huge profit... but always in the black. I've had everything ranging from my poorest profiting year being about a $500 net gain, to over $30,000 up in 2001 (I won a couple of large contests totaling $15,000, in addition to about $15,000 in winning bets). Typically I have come to expect that I will pocket between $5,000 - $10,000 per NFL season. I've even budgeted for it. Maybe that's no one else's business...but I have felt for a long time I had this sport beaten. Not enough to make a living, but enough to expect a profit and feel relaxed and confident about it.
Anyways, maybe I felt I was immune to losing or I have gotten lazy...or something...I don't know what it is... but SOMETHING has changed, and this year has been a HUGE kick in the nuts for me. Week 1 was the worst single week I have ever had 'capping the sport. But then this week I topped it - by a LOT. And I am pretty much at a loss to explain why this has happened. At one point on Sunday I was 3-2-1. I ended the weekend at 3-11-1. Nine straight losses. I don't think I could toss a coin and have it come up tails 9 times in a row if I tossed that coin for 24 hours straight.
By last night I had gotten over the shock of it, and I was almost in a state of delerium or something. Sitting there laughing at the TV like some crazy fool as consecutive loss #9 (Balt -5?) was unravelling and I knew it didn't have a hope in hell of it coming through. In 4 weeks this year I have had one week with VERY marginal gains (Week 2), one week of average losses (Week 3), and the two worst weeks of my 'capping life. Luckily, my bet last night was for the same amount of all my other bets. I was VERY tempted to go large and chase my way out of it, but stuck with the same bet size I always do. Thank GOD.
I'm wondering if other guys who usually come out ahead of the game are finding this year to be as mind-boggling as I have. The majority of sides I bet are dogs, and the majority of totals I bet are Unders. There have been plenty of dog and Under covers.... so what the hell is up? With a slight majority of games going to the dog, and a full 60% of all games going Under I should be rolling in the dough. I just don't seem to be picking the right dogs and Unders. I look at the standings in the big contest here and I see a LOT of the guys that were Top 25 last year in the bottom 20 or so this year. So I'm guessing I'm not the only one who has been completely baffled by what has gone on. Whatever it is that we have in common (similar thought patterns, methods of capping, whatever), it looks to me like we've all gotten snowed under this year.
Anyone out there relating to this...noticing how this season is different from all others... had all their systems and methods go right out the window?? Anyone out there who usually loses who is just raking in the $$ this season?
Right now I'm trying to figure out what my next step will be. I have certainly had bad weeks in the past, but nothing that remotely compares to the losses I have taken this year. Do I sit out a week or two and observe? Do I stop altogether? Will it all even out in the end? I've never had to consider shutting it down, but at this point I am pretty confused and trying to figure out the best way out.
My condolences to anyone else out there who has lost their shirt so far. Never, ever did I think it could go this wrong.
GM
Well, I took 24 hours off to lick my wounds, but I am back. This has been, without a doubt, my absolute worst NFL season. Scary really. This is a place I have never been. A little background for anyone who is interested. Maybe, some of you can relate.
This is my 9th season of 'capping the NFL. It's the only sport I do well (or at least, I used to). In the previous eight years I have lost money for the season a grand total of once (2002 - lost about $1000). In all the other years since '96 I have been profitable... not always huge profit... but always in the black. I've had everything ranging from my poorest profiting year being about a $500 net gain, to over $30,000 up in 2001 (I won a couple of large contests totaling $15,000, in addition to about $15,000 in winning bets). Typically I have come to expect that I will pocket between $5,000 - $10,000 per NFL season. I've even budgeted for it. Maybe that's no one else's business...but I have felt for a long time I had this sport beaten. Not enough to make a living, but enough to expect a profit and feel relaxed and confident about it.
Anyways, maybe I felt I was immune to losing or I have gotten lazy...or something...I don't know what it is... but SOMETHING has changed, and this year has been a HUGE kick in the nuts for me. Week 1 was the worst single week I have ever had 'capping the sport. But then this week I topped it - by a LOT. And I am pretty much at a loss to explain why this has happened. At one point on Sunday I was 3-2-1. I ended the weekend at 3-11-1. Nine straight losses. I don't think I could toss a coin and have it come up tails 9 times in a row if I tossed that coin for 24 hours straight.
By last night I had gotten over the shock of it, and I was almost in a state of delerium or something. Sitting there laughing at the TV like some crazy fool as consecutive loss #9 (Balt -5?) was unravelling and I knew it didn't have a hope in hell of it coming through. In 4 weeks this year I have had one week with VERY marginal gains (Week 2), one week of average losses (Week 3), and the two worst weeks of my 'capping life. Luckily, my bet last night was for the same amount of all my other bets. I was VERY tempted to go large and chase my way out of it, but stuck with the same bet size I always do. Thank GOD.
I'm wondering if other guys who usually come out ahead of the game are finding this year to be as mind-boggling as I have. The majority of sides I bet are dogs, and the majority of totals I bet are Unders. There have been plenty of dog and Under covers.... so what the hell is up? With a slight majority of games going to the dog, and a full 60% of all games going Under I should be rolling in the dough. I just don't seem to be picking the right dogs and Unders. I look at the standings in the big contest here and I see a LOT of the guys that were Top 25 last year in the bottom 20 or so this year. So I'm guessing I'm not the only one who has been completely baffled by what has gone on. Whatever it is that we have in common (similar thought patterns, methods of capping, whatever), it looks to me like we've all gotten snowed under this year.
Anyone out there relating to this...noticing how this season is different from all others... had all their systems and methods go right out the window?? Anyone out there who usually loses who is just raking in the $$ this season?
Right now I'm trying to figure out what my next step will be. I have certainly had bad weeks in the past, but nothing that remotely compares to the losses I have taken this year. Do I sit out a week or two and observe? Do I stop altogether? Will it all even out in the end? I've never had to consider shutting it down, but at this point I am pretty confused and trying to figure out the best way out.
My condolences to anyone else out there who has lost their shirt so far. Never, ever did I think it could go this wrong.
GM
