The Sports Guy Wk 11

[Senor Capper]

A reader asked me the following question: "Do you feel bad that your NFL picks have been so mediocre this season?"


Hey, it's not like I'm the only one struggling for a grip here. Heading into Week 11, the favorites have gone 63-77-4 against the spread ... but 60 of those 77 underdogs won their games outright. Think about that for a second. For just about every favorite that covered a spread in this first 10 weeks, an underdog pulled off an upset. How does that make sense? What in God's name is going on??????


Follow this train: San Diego beat Tennessee 38-17 in Week 4. Tennessee beat Green Bay 48-27 in Week 5. Green Bay beat Detroit 38-10 in Week 6. Detroit beat the Giants 28-13 in Week 7. And the Giants beat Minnesota 34-13 in Week 8. That's a game of Telephone Blowout -- five straight wins by a total of 106 points.


Here's another one that San Diego started: They beat the Jags 34-21 in Week 5. The Jags beat Kansas City 22-16 in Week 6. Kansas City beat Atlanta 56-10 in Week 7. Atlanta beat Denver 41-28 in Week 8. And Denver beat Houston 31-13 in Week 9. Another game of Telephone Blowout -- five straight wins by 98 points.


Nobody can be trusted. Nobody. Not even the Steelers and Patriots. Just keep that in mind. Onto the picks ...


Home team in caps


BILLS (+1) over Rams
I'm calling it right now: This will be Drew's last victory in Buffalo. They lose in Seattle next week, J.P. Losman takes over in December and that's that. We're about four years away from a "Surreal Life" house with Drew, Nomar, Vince Carter, Rick Ankiel, Maurice Clarett, Oksana Baiul and the Hamm brothers.


BROWNS (+1) over Jets
On the bright side, Herm Edwards set his alarm clock all week without any major complications.


RAVENS (-8) over Cowboys
Few things are sadder in sports than Bill Parcells stuck with a crummy team. Unlike every other coach in that situation, he's too cynical to pretend that he has hope, too realistic to think that things would ever turn around, and too honest to pretend that he's happy. So he just stands there on the sidelines looking like he just bit into a piece of five-week old General Tso chicken. I hate seeing him like this.


(By the way, I'm with Doctor Z, even if he's never heard of me -- Ray Lewis is a little overrated. Take away the dancing, the miked jersey, the Emmy for "Hard Knocks" and the acquittal for the conspiracy to commit murder and he's just another solid linebacker. Would you rather have Lewis or James Farrior this season? No contest.)


Cardinals (+3) over PANTHERS
Shhhhhhhhhh ...


BENGALS (+4) over Steelers
Steelers fans need to settle down. Just last week, my buddy Shek argued in a crowded room that Pittsburgh had the best offense in the league. And maybe he was right ... after all, their QB is probably going to break Marino's TD record, and they have a RB on pace for 1700 yards, as well as three potential 1,000-yard WRs, and they're probably cracking 500 points for the season. Oh, wait, that's the Colts.


Chargers (-3.5) over RAIDERS
Strange line of the week, Part One.


JAGS (-3) over Tennessee
Strange line of the week, Part Two.


Someone should send David Carr one of Schilling's "Why Not Us?" shirts. It is the NFL.
TEXANS (+3) over Packers
Let's see ... the Packers have won four in a row ... the Texans have lost their last two games by a combined score of 80-27 ... and this is the strangest gambling season of all time. Your honor, I think we've reached a verdict.

 

[Senor Capper]

BEARS (+7.5) over Colts
"Let's go to Greg Gumbel, who has an update on the Colts and the Bears."


"Thanks Jim ... you're not gonna believe what's happening in Chicago. Following another Edgerrin James fumble, here's Anthony Thomas rumbling through the Colts line and down the sideline for a 35-yard touchdown. We have a shocker brewing in Chicago -- 14-0, Bears. Back to you guys."


"Thanks Greg! Wow, who would have expected that one ... "


(Um ... me? I expected it! I'm the one!)


SEAHAWKS (-10) over Dolphins
R.I.P. for the Dave Wannstedt Era. I mean, the man made me a TON of money. And gave me a TON of mustache jokes. I miss him already.


VIKINGS (-7.5) over Lions
Strange Vikings season. They've had three of the best losses of the season -- Week 2 in Philly, Week 9 in Indy and Week 10 in Green Bay -- where they could have given up and kept fighting back. They've been playing without Moss for half the season now -- he's the official favorite for the Fred Taylor Award (given to the player who's held the most roto teams hostage from week to week). And they've given up 30 or more points in four of the last five games.


(I could see them rolling through these last seven weeks. I could see them losing against the Lions by 20 points on Sunday. Welcome to the NFL in 2004.)


Falcons (-2.5) over GIANTS
An unexpected holiday bonus. Who would have thought that we would get treated to the Eli Manning Face this early in the season? Should we send Tom Coughlin a fruit basket or something?


BUCS (-7.5) over Niners
Brian Griese's roto season, as described throughout the year by the weekly news wire on CBS' fantasy football site:


"With Brad Johnson on the roster, Griese has little value at this point" ... "He is not worth starting in 12-team leagues outside of being an emergency injury-replacement" ... "He is only worth using if your primary starter has a difficult matchup or bye week" ... "He is worth owning as a No. 2 Fantasy QB" ... "Griese is a very good Fantasy option against the Chiefs this week" ... "Griese has established himself as a solid No. 2 Fantasy QB" ... "Only a handful of quarterbacks have scored more Fantasy points than Griese over the past two weeks. Start him against a questionable 49ers defense."


(All right, so it wasn't quite "Rocky." But it still wasn't bad.)


SAINTS (+4.5) over Broncos
Jake Plummer against Aaron Brooks.


(In other words, stay away. By all means. If this game was an awards show, it would be the Vibe Awards.)


Redskins (+10.5) over EAGLES
Personally, I think the whole "Terrell Owens as Mandingo" debacle from Monday night ends up being a distraction for the Eagles. But that's just me.


As for the sketch, it's worth discussing only because it was such a dreadful idea. It played like a porn scene, not a comedy scene. That's why it didn't work. And to make matters worse, we haven't seen sexual chemistry bomb that badly since Bob Reed and Flo Henderson were making out back in the '70s. Just an unbelievably awkward, uncomfortable 60 seconds. Of course, I loved it. In some ways, it was even funnier than the Namath kiss, only because so many people actually worked on this and thought it was a good idea.


And it speaks to a larger problem: Instead of just giving us football, everyone seems to be obsessed with appealing to a hipper audience, so we end up with things like that T.O. skit, or that excruciating "You've Been Sacked!" sketch, or Jim Florentine pulling pranks at a Giants tailgate on "Inside the NFL". It's like they're sitting around going, "What do the kids like these days? I know ... they like those prank shows ... yeah, that's what we should do." And that's how we end up with some over-the-hill bimbo jumping into Terrell Owens' arms on Monday Night Football. This was a symptom of a much bigger problem, folks.


(We'll be back on the Sports Reporters after this.)


Patriots (+3) over CHIEFS
Here's a thought: We could end up with two 15-1 teams in the same conference. Seriously. Look at the schedules.


(And you thought this wasn't a wacky football season.)


Last Week: 6-8
Season: 72-68-4

 

[zgr-jo]

wow!!!!

wow!!!!

Hey man,
That.......... was a most enjoyable thread :clap:
And an excellent display of Just how crazy this season has been
Have a cigar!!!!!!!
You've Earned it

 

[bear]

Senor C

I nthink you are going to have a very BIG week!!

bear

 

[boilermaker]

Hell Lanny I thought I was the only crazy person thinking the Bears were going to upset the Colts. Agree with alot of your other opinions to. Good Luck

 

[Penguinfan]

Steelers fans need to settle down. Just last week, my buddy Shek argued in a crowded room that Pittsburgh had the best offense in the league. And maybe he was right ... after all, their QB is probably going to break Marino's TD record, and they have a RB on pace for 1700 yards, as well as three potential 1,000-yard WRs, and they're probably cracking 500 points for the season. Oh, wait, that's the Colts.

I just don't get it, I mean I really don't get it. You are saying the Steeler fans need to settle down and are looks like you think the Steelers are over-hyped, well maybe, but I fail to see why you like the Bengals, it looks to me like you just don't like the Steelers, again thats fine, but is it a reason to bet against them, is it a reason to have people that follow your plays bet against them? You are guilty of doing exactly what you are accusing the Steeler backers of doing. Can you tell me what the Bengals bring to the table that make them a better team today than the Steelers?
ATS record Pit 7-2, cincy 3-6
Rushing yards per game Pit 160 Cincy 100
Rushing defense Pit 79 Cincy 142
Cincy does have the edge in offensive passing 190 to 173.
Total yards per game offense Pit 336-287
Defesive YPG Pit 254-344!!!

Cincy can't stop anyone running game how will they stop Pittsburgh from dictating the pace of this game?

I know anything can and does happen or we would all be rich but I just do not see where you can get anything to justify Cincy being on a level playing field with Pittsburgh right now. Is Pittsburgh over-rated, absolutly, are they as bad as the Bengals, no way in hell.

Best of luck today, but I am scratching my head on this one.

 

[IX_Bender]

Its a cut/paste from Page 2

 

[Penguinfan]

Thanks IX, I had no idea. Makes a bit more sense to see these were not original thoughts of Senor Capper, appreciate it.