I've always looked at the Belmont as a real opportunity to "Git Dat Cash" ESP. in situations like we have this year. You know - we need to beat the HOT horse that just doesn't quite make the case as being a Triple Crown Champion vs. a field that has a few candidates, one or two of which, that could play the part as the one that has a reasonable chance to upset the ole "Apple Cart".
Not this year though cause the second part of the equation (what we need) just ain't there . IMO there's almost zero value at all in attempting to make a decent score with this year's field. OH yeah, I am REALLY looking forward to WATCH this race as a racing FAN, but not so much at all as a bettor.
Here's what we got to work with this year...
The potential Triple Crown Champ
Cal. Chrome: Costed $2,500 to make and was purchased for well under $10K ($8K?), bred to be an allowance hoss at best, didn't even qualify for that in it's first 6 starts, obscure owners and trainer, and tomorrow will attempt to prove that his name belongs on the list of champions of champions of hoss wacin.
The ones we have to beat it
If Chrome was a cat, SIX of the 10 of his opponents are pieces of the "nip". Yeah, yeah, the Curlin hoss and the no. 4 hoss were cutting down the margin with every stride toward the finish line but, Chrome had the finish line measured and there was no need for Espinosa to really get after him to hold them off. Our objective is even tougher to accomplish considering how the starting gate will look. That is, his excellent draw and where the speedsters and closers will start from
Tonalist is interesting, but how do you use this one? Is the risk/reward ratio worthwhile?
Bottom line is... . . . throw out the question mark (CC) and you got a barely bet-able race.
But, this is the Belmont and ya just gotta bet something. So.....
A swing for the fences is the main play (small bet across the board).. no. 6 Matuszak (really!). The angle for this play is usually a sucker bet in the Belmont; you know, play "the best. or at least the most consistent closer cause today is a mile and a half". Unfortunately, the result from following that obvious angle looks something like this
But sucker bets have won before and why not today? LOL
Hey, and this one costed $100 grand to make too. Besides, the only way they could take this one down is for "speeding on the Blvd. of Broken Dreams" and, based on his record - he WILL be doing that. GREAT closer jockey, impeccably bred, FIVE workouts since it's last race and two of them are bullets, Mott trained, and a 100 to 1 shot
. :0034
Well, maybe 50/1. IF Chrome runs out the moola and this one hits the board, you're a wiener. And an added bonus - you'll make the headlines in the official "MJ HOSS PALACE" if this one completes the miracle. Who could ask for more?
Side order of.. zacktas:
CC top bot. with several of the Pretenders, take your pick of them....
Sorry I got so many of them , but I'll be narrowing it down to about 3 or 4 after I see them in the paddock and on the twack.
Pretenders, Nos. 1,4,5,7,9,10.
It's races like this that substantiates the "anything goes in horse racing" statement. What usually "GOES" is moola out the window. We'll see bout that soon.
EDITED: One thing I forgot to mention that could be impotent... . .. Chrome is in spot where the slightest of mistakes at the start COULD mean trouble for him. There is the possibility that he could get boxed in by the other jocks. Where is Cordero, Velasquez, Vasquez when you need them? A jockey named Franklin had some choice words about that in the past.
Enjoy the race.
Not this year though cause the second part of the equation (what we need) just ain't there . IMO there's almost zero value at all in attempting to make a decent score with this year's field. OH yeah, I am REALLY looking forward to WATCH this race as a racing FAN, but not so much at all as a bettor.
Here's what we got to work with this year...
The potential Triple Crown Champ
Cal. Chrome: Costed $2,500 to make and was purchased for well under $10K ($8K?), bred to be an allowance hoss at best, didn't even qualify for that in it's first 6 starts, obscure owners and trainer, and tomorrow will attempt to prove that his name belongs on the list of champions of champions of hoss wacin.
The ones we have to beat it
If Chrome was a cat, SIX of the 10 of his opponents are pieces of the "nip". Yeah, yeah, the Curlin hoss and the no. 4 hoss were cutting down the margin with every stride toward the finish line but, Chrome had the finish line measured and there was no need for Espinosa to really get after him to hold them off. Our objective is even tougher to accomplish considering how the starting gate will look. That is, his excellent draw and where the speedsters and closers will start from
Tonalist is interesting, but how do you use this one? Is the risk/reward ratio worthwhile?
Bottom line is... . . . throw out the question mark (CC) and you got a barely bet-able race.
But, this is the Belmont and ya just gotta bet something. So.....
A swing for the fences is the main play (small bet across the board).. no. 6 Matuszak (really!). The angle for this play is usually a sucker bet in the Belmont; you know, play "the best. or at least the most consistent closer cause today is a mile and a half". Unfortunately, the result from following that obvious angle looks something like this
But sucker bets have won before and why not today? LOL
Hey, and this one costed $100 grand to make too. Besides, the only way they could take this one down is for "speeding on the Blvd. of Broken Dreams" and, based on his record - he WILL be doing that. GREAT closer jockey, impeccably bred, FIVE workouts since it's last race and two of them are bullets, Mott trained, and a 100 to 1 shot
. :0034Well, maybe 50/1
. IF Chrome runs out the moola and this one hits the board, you're a wiener. And an added bonus - you'll make the headlines in the official "MJ HOSS PALACE" if this one completes the miracle. Who could ask for more? Side order of.. zacktas:
CC top bot. with several of the Pretenders, take your pick of them....
Sorry I got so many of them , but I'll be narrowing it down to about 3 or 4 after I see them in the paddock and on the twack.
Pretenders, Nos. 1,4,5,7,9,10.
It's races like this that substantiates the "anything goes in horse racing" statement. What usually "GOES" is moola out the window. We'll see bout that soon.
EDITED: One thing I forgot to mention that could be impotent... . .. Chrome is in spot where the slightest of mistakes at the start COULD mean trouble for him. There is the possibility that he could get boxed in by the other jocks. Where is Cordero, Velasquez, Vasquez when you need them? A jockey named Franklin had some choice words about that in the past.
Enjoy the race.
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