THEORY TOTAL PLAYS

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phoenix566

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Don't know if anyone has stats on this, but this seems to hit more often than not.

When first two games of a series (or 3 of a 4 gamer) are either over or under, look for third game to go opposite.

Theory plays for today would be ATLU, PHILU, and SEAU. I am not posting these as picks just yet, but will cap these further.

Curious to anyone's thoughts on this.
 
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Never Caught Up

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I like your theory. Two points of logic come to mind right off.

#1 Improved value - If two games in a row between two team go over there is a good chance the opening line for game three is going to have adjusted for the anticipated public opinion by maybe half a run . . . although that is not necessarily true . . . but possible.

#2 Due factor - Notice how a manager often reaches for a pinch hitter with a .162 batting average to pinch hit? He knows they should be averaging .250 or more and is playing the odds they are overdue. Same thing applies here except in reverse. If the hitters as a group deveated from their norm in the first two games there is an increased probability they are due for a let down in order to stay near their averages.

Keep us posted on how this system works. A system founded on logic is always worth exploring.
 
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phoenix566

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Up to this point I have not been diligent enough tracking observations such as these. As of this point on, I will be more diligent.

Last Thursday, there were 8 theory plays that went 8-0. Last Sunday there were 5 that went 2-3. Lets see what happens for todays 3.
 
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gsp

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Fla has gone over 7 in a row. Atl has gone over 5 out of 7 with one of the two being a push. Law of averages says under today. My "worth looking at plays" says over again. Should be interesting to see how it comes out.
 
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Never Caught Up

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You need to track it for (I know you are going to hate to hear this) about 1000 plays before you have what is called data credibility. If at the end of 1000 plays the system is hitting 53% or more against an average lay of -110 you have a winner. If it is hitting over 60% at the 250 mark I would think you could also cautiously feel confident. I wouldn't trust 80% over 25 or 30 plays. You can do your analysis using past data.

My SWAG is that this system will prove to be credible with about a 54% win percentage.

SWAG = Scientific Wild Ass Guess

Note: Never bet on a SWAG or you will never be caught up. (grin)
 
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