Things about a game vegas knows 1/29

[Billy Blastoff]

My system has 4 games for Saturday. As most people have seen you usually get better odds closer to game time on my selections. Most people figure out a amount of points a team should win by . My system doesn't really pick games but predicts what the line should be.In 95 % of the time or greater its within 2 1/2 points of the Vegas line. My belief is when a line is greater than 3 points off Vegas must know something and have squed the line in their favor ( naturally ). So if a line should be 3 and Vegas puts it a 7 My system say WATCH IT SOMETHINGS UP. Thats why in that case I play the favorite and give the 7. My theory is I'm really betting on the LV lineman to know whats up.
Since finding a site with very strong data numbers the system has a record of 85 wins and 30 Losses

PICKS FOR 1/29
Richmond +1 line should be +4 1/2
North Carolina -13 line should be -7 1/2
Cornell -7 line should be -3
Tenn (Martin) +13 1/2 line should be +18

Remember this system works best by playing each game separately not parleys. If you are patient closer to game time you will get a better line.

Best of luck Tomorrow

 

[AKA 1ontop]

good luck with your system plays my friend :slomo

 

[vinnie]

who do you use for the opening lines ?

 

[Clem D]

Billy i have been reading your info and I really enjoy the system in theory. I think it is dead on as far as major conferences go. I think when you get into the small conferences that is where you run into trouble. I just don't think vegas or lvsc has enough time to scout the midmajors and small teams for a saturday.

I have noticed they rely on a teams last few games way to heavy example being Marist tonight.

Now I think North Carolina on the road should be 7 points favorite so we agree there. The fact that they make it 13 will lead alot of so called sharps to scratch thier heads. I think this is there equalizer to sharp money. As the line looks so far out of whack some wiseguys stay away. The ones cock sure of thier numbers do jump in and vegas drops the line accordingly. They certainly know if they hang a 7.5 on Carolina they are going to get over exposed, by smart guys and the public who just love to play UNC and Duke.
So a little long winded but I think your UNC pick is MONEY.

As far as tenn Martin they have played well below their talent level while eku has overachieved. The 13 .5 as far as my numbers go is wrong. The line should be 9. In the small conferences which is my bread and butter you have to take gifts that vegas provides and Martin is one them. So we both arrive at the same play but from opposite mentality. Which makes me like it even more.

Im on the other side of the Richmond game but agree the 4.5 is where the line should be.

I really like the way you think and you have added alot to the forum.

 

[Ronnie]

Good Luck with your system Billy. Alot of great cappers here! Jack and the gang have the best sports info website on the web.

 

[Marco]

Ok Billy....I'll ride your picks and take a chance...

I had a hell of a good night, so I'm running with your picks, and a few of mine also, and putting them into round robin action....

Nothing expensive, but with 21 two-teamers it doesn't take too much to run up a tab...

Running with these:

Richmond +1.5
NC -14
Cornell -7
Ten Martin +13.5
Indiana +8
Kent State +5.5
Las Vegas -5 (arena on Sunday)

Each parlay 15 to win 39
All seven parlay 10 to win 750

Two start at 11 am (central)
Three start at 1 pm
One at 4 pm
Arena game Sunday at 2 pm.....

If I'm lucky enough to get through the first five I may be doin' a little hedgin' for the last two games...

Like I say, I had a great day, if I give some back I'm still money ahead...

Will be :cursin: or :spotting: by Saturday nite.

 

[Interceptor]

From the 'should be line' versus the LV line you would want to play the opposite of your teams listed. But with the inflated LV lines you think the 'WATCH IT SOMETHINGS UP' is psychological play on steering you to the dog so staying with the heavy favorite.

 

[grandpa]

Billy, this is precisely the system I always dreamed of, but never had the huevos to actually practice.

The whole enchilada can be summarized by the credo of " if it seems too good to be true , it probably is."

And Vegas wasn't built by offering deals that were too good to be true. After 29 years of trying it my way, I am certainly giving a long look to this "obvious" approach.

GL to you, to me, to US.

 

[Billy Blastoff]

If anyone need to know what line my computer came up with for a game just ask. Too much typing to put up all the lines then the picks.

Clem you are very astute in the way you look at games. I enjoy everyones comments and they make me think. In regards to the small conference games I agree that Vegas wont spend too much time tweaking the lines for such little action. Thats why most of the time the lines are right on. I have found that when a line is off on a small conference game usually there is a major injury to a key player. Not always the case in a mid major or main conference game. Some big programs can absorb an injury because of their depth where a small program gets really weak.

I still cant believe how fortunate I was to stumble on the data source. Was actually searching for buffet lines in Las Vegas for a trip in March. And presto this link came up and I was amazed with these complex figures. I LOVE NUMBERS. began punching them into formulas I already had on my computer and found out how accurate these numbers where . initially picked with line change and went 2 wins 9 losses, then realized the right way to pick is against the line spread ,not with it.
since the 2-9 start the system has been 74 and 28 switch the 2-9 to 9-2 because would have bet other side if logic was reversed. Total for system stands at 83-30.

It isn't fair to sponsors of this site to post my source for morning line if Mad Jack approves Ill post the web site.

 

[Billy Blastoff]

Richmond line moving already up to +2. Do i hear +3. :clap:

 

[loophole]

what's your thoughts on the cornell line moving up to -7-?

 

[Billy Blastoff]

In most cases the line will move in your favor but not always. My system is based on morning line numbers not the bad betting habits of other gamblers.In general you usually get better lines on my picks closer to game time but not always. line swings mean nothing to the selection

 

[JOHNNYWAD119]

BILLY

BILLY

I really love the system. How do i purchase it? I'm in. Thank you.

 

[boilermaker]

Billy what kind of number is the computer spitting out for Ind at Iowa? Thanks Boiler

 

[superbook]

BB -- in reference to an earlier comment; what I meant was that in light of the fact that most systems are constantly being adjusted..I was just pointing out that the plays that you said just missed actually turned out to be winners: the three dogs won outright (Brown, Iona, Georgia Tech) and the one favorite (UTEP) was at worst a push...might be worth looking at...your system might be even stronger than you think!!!!

- Jon

 

[Billy Blastoff]

For Boilermaker:

Iowa should be favored by 10 over Indiana, Vegas ML was 8, means they want action on Iowa.

Indiana would be the pick but spread isn't greater than 3 so its a no pick.

While I'm on topic of close to a pick:

Texas Tech -11 over Nebraska
Indiana st -1 over Bradley

Repeat these 2 games where close to a bet but didn't get to the 3 point difference.

 

[Franky Wright]

Billy,
Thanks for your contribution to the board. I happened to see your first posts and been following them. Usually when someone comes in here showing that kind of record, alot of YELLING and CHEST THUMPING come with it! :mj07: Basically tells me to run :scared
Not with you though..........nice that you bring some new ideas to this place and are willing to share. I for one would like to know your data source if Jack allows it, if not, its ok to get my email from him. I have a version of this I use, but not the win percentage you get :mj14: Would be more than happy to share.........
Anyways keep pumping out there for us to consider......and while your at it, let me know what you came up for the Wisconsin game?
Thanks
Franky

 

[Billy Blastoff]

The data source I am keeping to myself. I think it is a goldmine and don't want that source to dry up.

In regards to a game where the spread was off by 8 or more making it a no bet is the Marquette game.

For those who have been following my system the line in the game should be Marquette -9 . Vegas put a morning line of -1. My system say Vegas knows something but when they swing the line 8 points or more the game becomes a guessing game.

I would believe that Marquette has a major player out. but stay away this game is a coin flip. Vegas over adjusted and is of no value to us.

 

[Billy Blastoff]

For Franky wisonsin -9 1/2 over Penn State same as morning line. No bet game :cursin:

 

[Tupac]

what does your systen say about
Wisconsin - Penn St. game and the Clemson - N.C. St. game

Thanks Billy