Things about a Game Vegas Knows 1/30

[Billy Blastoff]

As Requested Yesterday here is my paperwork:


ML CL BBL

Michigan at Purdue 0.5 1 3 *

Dayton at GW -11 -11 -8.5

Canisius at Iona -10.5 -10.5 -10

Akron at Miami (Ohio) -5 -6 -7

Loyola, MD at Niagara -22 -22 -21

Washington at ASU 5.5 5 P **

UCONN at ND 1.5 1 -2**

OSU. at Colorado 10.5 10 5**

Fairfield at Manhattan -4.5 -4 -4

GT at Maryland -3.5 -4 -6 *

Virginia Tech at Duke -19 -20 -20


ML= Morning Line
CL= Current Line
BBL= Billy Blastoff Line

** = a bet
*= close to a bet but no bet

 

[Billy Blastoff]

In simple language here are the picks:

Washington -5 line should be Pk
UCONN - 1 line should be +2
Ok St. -10 line should be - 4 1/2

system record to date 85-32

Remember always bet straight bets the system isnt designed to work with parleys.

ALSO games that where close to being a bet but are a no bet are

Purdue +1 & Georgia Tch +4

 

[cptsoco]

billy blasfoff......

billy blasfoff......

alot of good cappers r on ark little rock...u didnt post anything on the lines....is there a look you can share with us on this game thank u

 

[Stag]

bb................it seems as if most of your system plays have been on AWAY teams........do you think this is because Vegas knows that public over-values the home-court advantage too much?

 

[Billy Blastoff]

Stag very good point. Never even payed much attention if the play was a home team or visitor.
Dont know the answer. Sorry

 

[Billy Blastoff]

Didnt bother getting numbers for Little rock game. Just did it came up with a spread of 4 not 2 1/2 still a no bet game

 

[Billy Blastoff]

Just placed my bets I got
Washington -4
Okl st -11
Uconn -1

In recent plays any line that I bet after ml, and recieved a lesser number won easily.

Such as OKLAHOMA ST-11 today
Lets see if Okla st wins by a blow out.

 

[Dennis Kang]

BB.....I just talked to my source at Purdue and she said that Michigan Guard Danny Horton WILL NOT be in the lineup for the Wolverines. What are your thoughts on Purdue as a small favorite? I like them to take care of business at home.

Thanks,

Dennis K

 

[LuckyIrish]

JMO...but Id be careful with pur today.

 

[Billy Blastoff]

still an almost play but no bet on purdue

 

[T-MONEY]

Hey Billy just wondering here what number you are using for home court. I just don? know how you come up with ok st only -5 at col. You?ve had success here this past week?can?t dispute that, but I am just trying to understand this system. my buddy uses a similar system and came up with oklahoma state -10.
his only play was george washington -11 today

 

[JCDunkDogs]

Billy,
More power to you! Take your man to the cleaners!

I'm curious, though. My first guess was that you were using Sagarin's ratings, but I was wrong.

I did a little research on your lines and they almost match what Sagarin's lines would be today. Not quite a perfect match, but close. Your lines disagree with Sagarin on the top tier teams...and these games are also those upon which you see a play today. For Example:

Using Sagarin ratings,
Michigan 80
Purdue 73 +4 (home court) = 77
...a three point discrepancy favoring Mich, and your numbers agree.

Dayton 76
GW 81 + 4 = 85
...your numbers are close.

Canisius 65
Iona 71 + 4 = 75
...your numbers agree.

Akron 80
Miami-Ohio 81 + 4 = 85
...your numbers are close. There are several more examples of how you and Sagarin are same or close.

But here are the games where you and Sagarin disagree:
Washington 91
ASU 83 + 4 = 87
...you have this game at a pick'em in your numbers.

UCONN 86
ND 82 + 4 = 86
...you have this game as -2 in your numbers.

Ok St. 91
Col 78 + 4 = 82
...you have this game as -10.5 in your numbers.

My conclusion from this small sample is that you are not using Sagarin's ratings. You must be using some other computer figures.

GL

 

[Billy Blastoff]

The data source I use has 2 different numbers for home and away. I don't have to add in for home court advantage. To be honest with you I see a bigger difference in the road ratings. Maby everyone looks at it wrong its not a home Court advantage but a road trip disadvantage. :lol:

 

[Billy Blastoff]

In the same note some teams are better road teams . why give a standard home court number when a team comes in and likes playing on the road. Things that make you go HMMMMM :scared

 

[Steve Di]

Billy, very impressive system you have there. Good Job. Do you have this system for any other sports besides NCAA Baskets? Interested in see how the other sports do?

 

[Billy Blastoff]

Sorry about the one loss today. Only can play what system tells me. But as I said over and over the system is designed for straight bets not parleys. Since posting no minus days , two days lost vig. All other days showed a profit. :clap:

 

[azjeff]

Nice job :clap:

 

[Iminforabuck]

UCONN gift wrapped a cover for ND at the end.....otherwise...we had a real good shot at 3 for 3. Good job today.....and looking forward to tomorrow.