Things about a game Vegas knows 2/2

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Billy Blastoff

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mack the knife said:
question: is there any reason to think this would work in the nba?

I am not so sure. When I see a game, like today, where No catches 9, I don't say, "hmmm, vegas knows something." I say, POUND N.O. +9 and prepare to middle when it comes down. I now have -7 to +9. If your theory is right, and dal should have only been -7, dal would be the play. But I am positive N.O. is the better play getting more than they should. Maybe its that the info is harder to find in college, or the lines aren't as sharp. I dunno.

But I still have a hard time thinking "play the team laying way too many points" is a long-term winning strategy. Is there any way to get prior year's data and test the system on past years? Even in a sample of 1000 games, sometimes you find a winning pattern that is still random. Theory has to be right; data needs to back it up.

good luck
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Evertone has there own theory. this is what I believe. I dont do NBA but can get figures in the case of NO they should be a 6 1/2 dog with ml being 8 its a no play.
The only game by my system in the NBA for tonight is Phoenix -2 they should be a 1 point dog. I have no idea if nba works as I dont bet them ,too much bulls**t .
 
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superbook

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BB -- keep up the good work...there are always going to be idiots...just try to ignore them...

Anyone keeping track of how BB's picks are doing: dogs vs favs??? Just curious...

Also since BB is hitting at better than 50% with no losing days...if the early game loses you might consider doubling up on the late game...

- Jon
 
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Iminforabuck

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Idiots are bound to surface here Billy, they always do. Theres obviously quite a few people who are following you here who arent ready to jump on you for a bad night. Hell, you havent even had a bad night yet. Keep up the good work, and practice on scrolling down when an a-hole appears.
 
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Nickelback

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Billy, congrats on the very impressive record. . . you're doing quite well and its always great to see new cappers bring something to the table here. I'll be watching your system.

I do have a question though: your system is based on the principle that Vegas knows more than anyone who could come up with power ratings (ie Sagarin, Massey, etc). At least that's basically what you're getting at and you are using one of these rating systems which remains a secret and should remain a secret. So if your system is based on this principle, then why would line movement after Vegas releases their lines matter? I would think it shouldn't matter what the public does with the line. The reason I say this is that you say that if a line moves just a half point, etc. then it would be a system play. Why should it matter if Vegas didn't initially release a line significantly off from your power numbers?

Anyways, just wondering. Keep up the great work!
 
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Billy Blastoff

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Nickelback said:
Billy, congrats on the very impressive record. . . you're doing quite well and its always great to see new cappers bring something to the table here. I'll be watching your system.

I do have a question though: your system is based on the principle that Vegas knows more than anyone who could come up with power ratings (ie Sagarin, Massey, etc). At least that's basically what you're getting at and you are using one of these rating systems which remains a secret and should remain a secret. So if your system is based on this principle, then why would line movement after Vegas releases their lines matter? I would think it shouldn't matter what the public does with the line. The reason I say this is that you say that if a line moves just a half point, etc. then it would be a system play. Why should it matter if Vegas didn't initially release a line significantly off from your power numbers?

Anyways, just wondering. Keep up the great work!
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I understand what you are saying but I only make selections based on Morning line numbers. I never add any games based on silly money. I do however say you should get better odds than the morning line because the line is off. If the line gets worse for example say I like team a and morning line is -7 I believe that line should be closer to -5 by betting time if it goes higher -8 or more I believe there is definetly something wrong with the other team.
 
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COYOTEBLUE

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NEW ON THIS SITE ... BUT NOT NEW TO PLAYING ...

DIDNT TAKE ME LONG ON HERE ... AND THERE ARE A LOT OF GREAT HANDICAPPERS ON HERE OBVIOUSLY ... TO GO TO YOUR THREAD FIRST ...

WHY SOME FEEL IT NECESSARY TO MAKE NEGATIVE COMMENTS ON HERE ... HMMMM ... UNFORTUNATE ... BUT THEIR PROBLEM CERTAINLY NOT YOURS !!!

OBVIOUSLY I AM NOT ALONE IN MY THOUGHTS JUDGING BY THE POSTINGS ON HERE ... SO ...

KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK !!!

THX FROM BILLY (CANADIAN VERSION LOL)
 
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signalcaller

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Good Luck Billy. I love the UAB play tonight. Im in love with this UCONN team but i know they are bad. Will follow on Seton Hall.

Good Luck tonight
 
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maverick2112

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Billy Blastoff said:
For Franky:
I use a complex system with computer generated spreads, if 50 games are processed maybe 3 or 4 have a 3 point gap. My theory is simple why are these lines off,usually find out key player out, team problems etc. we are not privy to all info but vegas gets alot its there job. So if a line should be 5 and its 10 give the 10 there is a reason for off odds. over 150 games used this year with a 77% win percentage.

Remember this system is based on Straight wagers only not PARLEYS
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So with 150 games are you saying this system is 115 winners and 35 losers.....77%

If so thats pretty damn impressive if it keeps up......Thanks for taking the time to post........
 
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sportsjunkie

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Billy, first off i want to tell you this is not a bash. I played a system almost identical to yours a couple years ago and the results were favorable(58%) but not to the extent yours appears to be having. I am not trying to start anything with you but prior to posting your record is something like 80-30, since you have been posting 7-5 or close to .600, I am not calling you out or accusing you of anything I am simply stating too someone who likes to follow people to be weary plays are more likely to win at 60% than 77%, AND MIND YOU IT BEARS REPEATING, NOTHING WRONG WITH 60%

BEST OF LUCK 2 YA
 
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mode the lode

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stroke job by TT at home almost lose thr game after by leading and totally dominating the BUFFS --
LOOKS AWFULL F---K-N FISHY
 
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