Think'n Under On This One

[eztds]

Yesterday I couldn't get up by more than one game....all day/night long.

Win one....lose one...win one....lose one....win one and a 3-2 day but at least it was a +1 ending!

Wiz -1' 1H W

Sac/Minn u 207 L

LAL/Mavs u 104' 2H W

Suns -1 1H L<---a horrid 1H by the Suns down by 16 @ HT (Suns ended up winning the freak'n game....go figure)

Suns -4' 2H W

3-2...Yesterday

97-59-2...YTD

-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_-_

Tonight I'm going opposite of line movement in the Kings/Nets game and play'n under 205.

Here's my take:

-SAC (not known as a great road team) comes into NJ on a back-to-backer off a tough game with the T-wolves yesterday....winning a 112-107 affair.
-Weary King's legs late game always a good possibility tonight???

-Plus...the Kings will face the 3rd best scoring defense (with the physical Kenyon) in the NBA tonight at NJ. Byron Scott should want to let his defense wear on this SAC team tonight and avoid the up and down the floor kinda game.

-However, Kenyon needs to stay out of foul trouble. The refs are watching him closely as evidenced by the 3 fouls he pick up on Saturday in 25 seconds!

-SAC is a team that will just out-score ya in a shoot out. Can't see the Nets wanting to play a game that's to the Kings advantage.

-Yes, the Kings lead the NBA with 104.9 pts/gm but the Nets are only allowing that 3rd best 91.7/gm.

-Last Nov. 24 at SAC the Kings won 98-97. That game was a "fresh" Kings home team....coming off 3 days rest and a weary Nets team play'n the 4th of a 5 game western road trip!!

-Doesn't the defense usually suffer on a tired team???

-Kings are a shoddy 11-9 on the road this season while the Nets are a hot 18-4 at home.....thus a line of Nets -3.

I just think there's a good possiblity of an under 205 tonight.

1)Tired SAC team

2)Play'n the defensively intense Nets team

3)On the road in the Nets crib

Sounds like under 205 to me. GLTA

--->Play'n SAC/NJ u 205

Might come back with a Nets -3 play later. Just a lean at the moment.....need to do some more capp'n before that one becomes play. ez

 

[Guerilla_Ninja]

man ez, i don't like being on the other side of the fence of you...

i will say that both teams have a very nice D against FG% last 5. but, i do think that NJN will want to run. i don't even think that mindset is the wrong one. i feel very strongly about this NJN team that they would beat SAC at they're own game. thing is though, that NJN is a young, enthusiastic running team as well. no contrast in styles here. you have a true west coast PG running NJN as well.

always enjoy your write-ups!

GLTA!

 

[nighthorse]

I agree with your calls on this game, but on the opposite side with respect to how strongly.

It's SAC's 4th game in 5 days in which they've had a hectic travel schedule. The Nets are very well rested. Given the small spread and both teams home/road records, it looks like a strong Nets play to me. Every now and then, an elite team lays an egg. Looks like a real good spot for SAC to do this tonight.

As for the total, I'm a big fan of the tired=no defense play. I think the Nets can dictate a slower pace if they want, just not sure if they will want to or not. If SAC's feet are slow on D, will the Nets be able to resist open looks? I don't know. Guessing the Nets will play good D tonight and SAC will not be able to hold up their end of the bargain on the over.

The way SAC has played of late, I risk looking real stupid. Imagine that! GTLA

 

[Dragon]

lot of people liking the Nets

lot of people liking the Nets

hate to be on the opposite side of ez here, but I like the over and the Kings. The only way the Kings are going to lose this game is if Nets dictate a slower pace. I can totally see this one dipping under the total, but I think I have said that about 10 times in the Kings last 20 games. They keep putting up the points, whether it's from the line or from outside the arc. Already played the Kings so I might not even touch the total. I was even looking at the Kings ML on this one. I don't feel quite as confident now that so many people like the Nets. I thought the Nets at first myself, but I like the groove that the Kings are in. They are matching up well with everyone right now. It should be a good game. Good luck.

 

[Theboundbook]

unders

unders

After reading Nolan Dalla's comments on the free picks, I believe that looking at the unders on all games after the Super Bowl makes sense. This worked last year and seems to work well the day before Thanksgiving. Minds of players after Super Bowl may be a little partied out and tired...... Took 1 unit on each under and parlayed all four for .5 unit. Good luck to all.

 

[vanbasten]

ez,

good luck to you tonight. not crazy when i'm on the opp. side of you either, but we gotta stick with our first instincts, right? see you at the first half of the sixers game. not sure i can stick around for the others.

 

[Biggy]

THANKS EZ, good call on the under...

 

[eztds]

Looked ugly at HT for the under.......

Looked ugly at HT for the under.......

SAC failed to come back out for the 2H.

I think fatigue and Webber not feeling well (stomach virus) had a lot to do with the under covering tonight.

But hey.....we'll take it Biggy. ez

 

[MrChristo]

Nicely done ez.

I was on aswell

 

[nighthorse]

It's SAC's 4th game in 5 days in which they've had a hectic travel schedule. The Nets are very well rested. Given the small spread and both teams home/road records, it looks like a strong Nets play to me. Every now and then, an elite team lays an egg. Looks like a real good spot for SAC to do this tonight.

As for the total, I'm a big fan of the tired=no defense play. I think the Nets can dictate a slower pace if they want, just not sure if they will want to or not. If SAC's feet are slow on D, will the Nets be able to resist open looks? I don't know. Guessing the Nets will play good D tonight and SAC will not be able to hold up their end of the bargain on the over.

I've never been more right about a game. I might just quit now while I can go out on top.

 

[eztds]

LOL nighthorse.............

LOL nighthorse.............

however, I bet your just like MJ.......you won't be able to "go out on top".

You got too much game in ya!

Your "pre-game" verbage sure resembles the "post-game" write-up we'll read in tomorrow's newspapers.

ESPN might as well just read your post verbatim on Sports Center tonight!!!!

Thanks for the input....guys!

nighthorse, Theboundbook, Biggy & MrChristo...glad ya rode along.

G_N, Dragon and Van...let's get on the next one together.

Van....always play your instinct. I had an instinct on NJ also....but didn't follow through.

O'well...we'll try it all over again tomorrow. ez

 

[Dragon]

G'night EZ

G'night EZ

Again, good call on that UNDER. You had the Nets play down too but just didn't pull the trigger. Next time man. Now I know why I hate to go against you! You are usually right on target.

Big schedule tomorrow. We'll find a couple of games and make some COIN!

 

[Guerilla_Ninja]

credit when credit due.

credit when credit due.

good call on the under tonight. what a different SAC team in the 2nd half. that O FG% dropped like a shaq FT. what the hell? that tired of a team. what was it... 29 2nd half points. NJN played up to they're end and then some. when the hell was the last time SAC came up under 90? 83 points - how sad!

happy for you though! looking forward to tomorrow.