Think of a halftime bet like this...
It is a separate bet. Forget about all previous bets (assuming you have a proper bankroll and are not worried about fluctuation) and THEN decide whether to place a 2nd half wager.
If a line for the 2nd half is -3.5 -110, then to break even ON THAT PARTICULAR BET that team must win the 2nd half by 4 or more 52.38% of the time for you to break even on that bet.
It's similar to an insurance bet at blackjack, which pays 2:1. Many people think about their own hand ("Oooh I have 20, a good hand, I better take insurance since even if I lose that bet I will still probably win with my hard 20.") when considering whether or not to take insurance, which is COMPLETELY WRONG. An insurance bet is just like betting what color shirt someone will be wearing when they walk into the room. It has NOTHING to do with your initial wager.
If the ratio of non-tens to tens in the remaining cards is LESS THAN 2:1, then insurance is a profitable bet. For instance, if you somehow knew that there were 10 cards left, and 5 of them were NON-TENS, and 5 of them were TENS. If insurance pays you 2:1 on a $100 bet, then you should definitely take it. You're just betting that the dealer has a TEN underneath. That is it. 5 times you would lose $100 (-$500) when the dealer does not have a ten, and 5 times you would win 2 x $100 (+$1000) when the dealer DOES have a ten. So for every 10 tries at insurance in that spot, you would risk $1000 and win $1000 - $500, or $500, giving an expected value of $500 profit per 10 bets, or $50 per bet. Your expectation is to win $50 per $100 bet.
Same s%^& for halftimes. Forget about what happened in the 1st half (in terms of your pregame bet). There is still a half to be played. Let's say that somehow all 5 starters for one team got injured in the 1st half, but somehow the oddsmakers didn't know this and you did. Now the 2h line for the other team is +5 (facing the team without their 5 starters). You would pound that +5 line regardless of the score after the first half or your pregame wagers, because you know that your team would cover the +5 IN THE SECOND HALF way more than 52.38% of the time.
Now if for some odd reason you have half of your entire bankroll on one game, and that game is PK and your team is up by 10 at the half... and you couldn't eat if you lost half of your money, then by all means bet the other team 2nd half for at least a partial hedge. But if you are gambling to win the most money, then number one, you should bet reasonably in proportion to your total bankroll and your perceived advantage, and you should forget about trying to middle or hedge, UNLESS you think both sides can beat the juice.
If you have under 500 points for an NBA total, you will win 100% of the time. If you also find a book that offers OVER 1 point for that same NBA total, you will win 100% of the time. Then for sure bet both under 500 and over 1. But if you have bet under 202 (with -110 juice) because you think the two teams will score less than 202 pts more than 52.38% of the time, then you should NOT bet over 198 pts (with -110 juice) unless you think that the game will go over 198 pts more than 52.38% of the time. All you'd be doing by betting the over 198 in addition to the under 202 is losing some money back (in the long run). You may get lucky and hit both and feel smart, but in the long run, you will not make as much money.
What if you had Carolina @ 100:1 odds to win the Super Bowl for $100 to win $10,000? They magically make it to the Super Bowl, and let's say you could now bet the Patriots @ ML -230. Should you bet the Patriots -230 to guarantee yourself a win?
Well, that depends on how important it is that you make money right now. If you are nearly broke, then go borrow from your friend and bet the Patriots for some amount to get some kind of win. But if you have a nice bankroll already and your goal is to maximize your long term profits, then you should just stick with your bet because you are getting GREAT ODDS (100:1) on something that has around a 1 in 3 chance of happening.
But if you think the Patriots -230 is just a bad line, then by all means bet that side in proportion to your bankroll and your perceived edge. Forget about the fact that you have $100 to win $10,000 on Carolina. You must only think in terms of how big your edge on Patriots ML is and the percentage of your bankroll that you should risk according to that edge.
Same goes for parlays. Unless you are in dire need of having money right now, then if you make it to the last leg of a parlay, then just stick with it. If you liked that team enough to put them in a parlay, then you should NOT make a bad bet on the other side just to "guarantee" yourself a win, just like you should not insure a blackjack to "guarantee" yourself even money. It is a bad bet (off the top of the deck, assuming you do not know the ratio of non-tens to tens remaining). If you bet $100 and you get a blackjack, you make $150 (3:2) on your money. By taking only (1:1) on your money (only $100), you are missing out on that extra $50 profit. And in the long run, it will eat you alive. Yet most people who play blackjack think that taking "even money" is the right play. They are all fools, and that's why people lose. They just don't know the math.
Hope this helps. This is how I think. Think in terms of math, and you will win lots more in the long run. Good luck.
:moon: :moon: :moon:
