This guy makes a lot of sense...

[MadJack]

I don't know what to believe but he makes sense. Somebody tell me where he's totally wrong in what he says.

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[WhatsHisNuts]

If the markets were known to be ridiculously over valued, is it really a crash when it comes back to reality?
I don't understand his logic on the housing market crashing because of a lack of building permits....wouldn't it be the opposite?

I don't like how he's focusing only on the Fed's role in inflation. This a global problem. There is a severe supply chain shortage and in the US, unemployment is very low which means people have money to spend. The Fed kept interest rates (cost of money) too low for too long, so that needs to be corrected, which they are.....slowly.

13 minutes in, I think I've heard enough.

 

[MadJack]

If the markets were known to be ridiculously over valued, is it really a crash when it comes back to reality?
I don't understand his logic on the housing market crashing because of a lack of building permits....wouldn't it be the opposite?

I don't like how he's focusing only on the Fed's role in inflation. This a global problem. There is a severe supply chain shortage and in the US, unemployment is very low which means people have money to spend. The Fed kept interest rates (cost of money) too low for too long, so that needs to be corrected, which they are.....slowly.

13 minutes in, I think I've heard enough.

He explains his reasoning in the rest of the video. And he's certainly not the only one out there thinking along these lines for inflation and what that will do to the markets. But, it's all speculation because nobody really knows what's going to happen but I'm leaning to believe these guys about the next 3-4 months or even the rest of 2022. That it's going to be ugly.

I know one thing for sure. My portfolios have taken a huge hit. Not sure how much more I can take.

How are people going to be able to afford housing with interest rates shooting up to maybe even 10%? How are people going to afford gas and food when they already live paycheck to paycheck? Will they start cashing in IRA's and pay the penalties? How will that affect the markets?

I'm just asking, certainly not telling because I don't know squat.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

The rest of this year will probably be shitty, but there are signs that the inflationary pressures are starting to subside.

The housing market will work itself out. If interest rates go up, people won't be able to afford these inflated prices and the sellers will have to bring their prices down. I think these McMansions that have been popping up for the last 10 years will be available at some great prices once this bubble bursts.

Obviously, I don't know how this will play out either, but history tells us that things get better and usually recover within a year.