This is the Life.. Super Bowl Sunday

[Clem D]

Well folks this is it. Were in the middle of week 1 of this two week freak show leading up to the big game.I believe the "4' is a pretty tight line and action seems pretty even so far. Before the games even kicked last week I knew who I was playing in the Bowl. Yes before the games kicked off. I was quite sure Seattle would survive and I honestly felt they could handle either AFC team. (Especially Denver)

My thinking is that Seattle's defense is vastly underated. Pittsburgh the last few weeks has won through the air and I have noticed that Willieparker has lost a step due to end of season fatigue. He has not been able to get to the corner to make things happen. Bettis while a nice story is no more than a short yardage back at this stage of the game. Big Ben has been awesome, but I think since the hags will not have to bother with the run too much they can throw some strange coverages at Big Ben and confuse him into mistakes. (see delholme) I think they can shut ward down.

On offense the Seahawks offensive line can make holes for Alexander. Hassleback looks very comfortable back there and who wouldn't with all the time and the great running attack. Seattles offense is so tough to stop because they are very balanced. They can run when you think pass and pass when you think run. The Steelers if they haven't already will turn into the bells of the ball in Detroit, and some things I'm reading, have them either quite sure of the victory, or quite impressed on how they got here.
My feeling on how they got there is running the gauntlet of three straight road games against the top 3 seeds has to take something out of you. I feel emotion and heart had a big piece in getting them here. The week off may ease some of the physical effects of the "gauntlet" they faced. It will not however aid in keeping the momentum. It will garner a "house money" effect in my opinion. A "we were not supposed to get here". A "Hey if we can beat the Colts attitude".
Meanwhile the Seahawks as a top seed fly under the radar and swoop in for the Lombardi trophy. Seattle wins 34-13. I maybe wrong but I'm getting 4 points insurance.

Seattle +4
1100/1000


Season Nfl record 46-26-2
+22490
62.86 %

 

[thom24ad]

thought you would be going the other way and great write-up of the game...but I'm not one to argue against playing a top seeded team getting points...Good Luck to you Clem and thanks for all the post this season you've been a great help to us all!

 

[Mr. Black Cat]

I'm thrilled that we agree on this game.

Seattle hasn't received the respect the deserve. They just keep winning and they do it with consistent play in all facets of the game.

I'll gladly take the 4 points.

 

[ThrowinPicks]

When the Seattle/Carolina game ended - i thought to myself that if the spread was between Pitt -3.5 to Sea - 3.5 that Seattle would be the bet. I thought that if Pitt was favored by more than 7 they would be the pick.

Turns out its Pitt - 4 (now) So I hope youre right.

GL buddy

 

[Tam]

:toast: Good Luck young man! I'm right behind you on the Seattle. Great work so far this season, hope you finish it up strong! I appreciate all your write-ups and picks. Thanks!

 

[Franky Wright]

Clem,
GL on this play. I agree with all you had to say :clap: Only difference is I saw a closer game, so I will take the points as the insurance.
Hags 27 Steel 24

And nice hit on U Conn last night!(Whoops, just saw your PBR Thursday, no loss though)
Franky

 

[Killian]

Nice write up Clem.......I'm just waiting for all that Pittsburgh money to drive the line up. I think that by game time we're gonna see something close to +6 and a better ML on Seattle.

Just a side note.....Holmgren is keeping this team focused on the task at hand and everyone seems so humble. There hasnt' been any huge celebrations.......no cork popping and it's been business as usual.

By the end of the game people are going to be scratching their heads wondering ......."What the hell happened to the Steelers".

Let's take this one home.

 

[Juu3]

ESPN's comparing Hasselbeck to Favre :mj07: :mj07:

 

[Blazer]

ESPN's comparing Hasselbeck to Favre :mj07: :mj07:

He's had that comparision for years. All backups get comparied to thier starters.

The real difference is he is more dependable, quicker on his feet, and takes less risks than Farve.

I'm waiting to add more money with more points. Public loves the "bus" and the underdog story...I'll take the #1 over the #6 and points all day.


Trivia: When was the last time a #1 seed met a "wild card" in the Superbowl?

 

[AR182]

clem,

haven't decided who i'm playing yet...but am leaning to pitt.....

thanks for your plays this year..it's greatly appreciated....


good luck with your play.....unless i'm on pitt, of course (lol).

 

[addikted]

Always respect your opinion and enjoy your write-ups. I think I'll be on Seattle as well.

Lets go Hags!!
:mj14:

 

[JCam]

:clap:

I'm waiting to add more money with more points. Public loves the "bus" and the underdog story...I'll take the #1 over the #6 and points all day.

Hello Blazer..

You are totally correct in that the public appears to be in love with Pittsburgh in this years Super game and by game time will probably have driven the line up to Pittsburgh -5 or -5.5.

However, I would caution you to not make this be the sole reason for wagering against Pittsburgh with regard to playing the role of a contarian, keep in mind that the public backed favorites all season long in the NFL this year and was rewarded with a 60% winning rate.

With regard to your statement of taking the #1 seed over the #6 seed, historically speaking this method would have cost you dearly because a check of the past 10 years reveals that the higher seeded team has posted a record of 1-7-2 ATS in the past 10 Super Bowls.

take care and be well

Jim

 

[escarzamd]

Long time listener, first time caller......

Great season, keep livin' the dream....... :clap:

I can't decide if Vegas wants Pitt or Seattle moey to flow, so I guess the line is pretty tight. Can't even go back in time and dissect this number as the situation is unprecedented in playoff history. Closest comparison I can see is the Dallas game for the Pitt D matching up w/Seattle O. Similar styles for those D's w/ Pitt seeming to exhibit a more aggressive, gambler's version of the 3-4 instead of trotting out 2 freakish "ends" like Dally. Secondary play comparable except Polamalu is just locked in right now. Hags D ignored all year, but they have played well against all expectation b/c of some added speed (freakin' Samoans are taking over!!!)

Don't know about the score, but I like it lower than books do......Good luck. Be watchin' for you in College BB.........Doc

 

[amich1]

amich1

amich1

Clem,

Just wanted to say something to you you & everyone here a/b the write-ups w/ your plays. The insight you put into your write-ups shows you understand not just stats & football but the intangibles that seperate good cappers from bad.

I've lurked on this site for awhile (& many others as well) & capped NFL for many years & this yr. I've noticed how you've consistently identified intangible angles in your write-ups that have made the difference in games. Vast majority of gamblers never stop to think a/b what intangibles might exist in any given game that will override or complement any particular statistcal advanatage or disadvantage. Week in week out, you've spotted & written a/b these things,correctly dismissing hyped aspects and focusing on what will or won't actually sway the game. I'm sure others have noticed the same thing, just thought I'd point it out for those that gloss over that aspect of your capping, think your just lucky, or think you can't "live the dream". You just have to know what you're doing.
Clem, Kudos on a great season, no matter how the sb turns out

 

[mode the lode]

never , ever get _+6 with sea. we can only hope

 

[edludes]

This is the cherry on top of a great season for you!Go to the head of the class.The story of the playoffs and the season is the total disregard the average fan and capper has for Seattle.Disregard the comments of all the fandicappers on this board with East Coast addresses telling you what a bargin Pittsburg-3- is.All I can say is they must not have watched Seattle grow as I did this season,and as of October I watched all the games by every team,not just West Coast ones.The Superbowl line is set with joe public in mind,as its the game joe public bets on once a year.Who do you think they'll be inticed to play at such short odds,the glamorous Steelers with their tradition and the ambulance..err Bus,or the never heard of always underestimated Seahawks?They are chompin' at the bit to mortgage their houses on Pitt,Pitt,Pitt.....Seattles defense is better than the Steelers and their offense is at least as good,their special teams are probably better too.What do you think alexander is thinking with al the attention Bettis is getting for his two carry day last week.You can tell who the public is on this board if they think Seattle won't be able to run on the mighty Steelers,it'll be the most important difference between the teams.Anyone who thinks a different back would have made a difference last week didn't watch Seattle defense running in Carolinas backfield at each snap like I did.Great call great season.

 

[seeker]

Agree on the pick of seattle. I really believe having
2 weeks to prepare for the 3-4 D, will give the Hawks O a big advantage. In return, expect this
will put added pressure on the steeler O, especially
given that their isn't a big running game present.

I thought the line would open @ either a pk
or Pitt -1.....but Seattle is really undervalued
here. Put it this way, if it was vice versa and
Pitt was the #1 seed and they had accomplished
what seattle had, you would have to expect a
line of at least Pitt -7/-8.

Also believe although not a team of stars, perhaps
Tatupu aside, the hawk D is just solid and plays
well as a unit. I should probably play the ml,
but gonna take the pts. small play.


Seattle +3' +100

:clap:

GL mj'ers

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Clem,

Let me first say congrats on a great season. I watch the Hawks every week because I live in Seattle and I have to say I'm impressed with how well you know them considering you live on the East Coast. That's a testament to your ability as a capper. I think a lot of East Coasters on this site think Zorn is still the QB for the Hawks. :mj07: Anyway, everything you said was dead-on. Very fast, aggressive, underrated defense and an offense that won't be stopped by anyone. I like them to win outright as well. Congrats again on the great season.

 

[BADTODABONE]

Gl with the pick Clem D :clap:

(a few years ago this match-up would never have happened as both teams were in the AFC)

Congrats on a FANtastic season :toast:

 

[James Witt]

Clem, i'm surprised. you're second to none in your analysis this year, and i've really enjoyed following your campaign. here i think you're wrong. roth. is the differnce. he's 23. you couldn't him tired if he played six games back to back. the unfinished business applies to cowher more than holmgren. if anyone's satisfied just being there it's seattle, who's never been anywhere. seattle might be as good as you say, but pittsburgh proved it is. i think you're trying to force pitt into last week's carolina mode. i agreed with you then, as carolina (like dc) was injured, but these are entirely different circumstances. pit isn't injured, and there are two weeks for it to get over jetlag. sea's the road team here. sea simply hasn't proved itself against winning teams. if they win here, it will be a squeaker. but it's much likelier pit whips them or beats them by a good 7-10. you're the man, Clem, but your Sea 34-13 is the most (the only) ridiculous thing you've said all year. i'm not a fan of either team, and if i'm wrong, i'll eat my words.