This Is why you don't bet big chalk!!!

SmashMouth

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Could you imagine if you were dumb enough to play $200 each on
Maddux
Randy Johnson
Pedro??

You are now in a whole that you probably will not dig out of for Months. Put down the chalk people. Learn from someone who knows!!
 

SmashMouth

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If you tried to win 200 each of these 3 games, you are down give or take 1500. If you parlayed in additional to betting them straight, well you get the picture. If this is you, Do not chase this money by betting big chalk tomorrow. You have been warned.
 

cooz3

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cant get anymore to the point smash...TV has been preaching this for a while as well...BIG faves sometimes look like thier $ in the bank but as we saw today...looks can be decieving anything can happen ...anything over 160 is usuually a no no for me...except in the rarest of occasions...anthing can happen ...see the end of the sox game if you need anymore evidence...

cooz
 

bohawk

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Anytime I go on big chalk It`s in a parlay:coupled with an o/u
play. Stupid to wager big chalk. That`s my story &I`m sticking
to it. Had ExPos & KC on flat line today. Nice payoff& if you lose,
no juice. GL;) ;)
 

SmashMouth

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March 31,2003. 10 pm est. Opening Day of the Baseball season, Illegal bookmakers, and sportsbooks accross the country are are dancing naked in warm yogurt, Purchased by suckers and squares, who bet the big chalk. While the suckers and squares wonder how they are going to pay the mortgage.
 

ELVIS

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smash, thanks for your work. i rarey bet bb and any help you can give is appreciated. i would like to play this year and learn from some of you guys that know more about it than i do.
 

tony steams

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One thing I do want to mention though is this:

If you have a large bankroll -- I mean LARGE -- than you can wager exclusively on a top pitcher throughout the season to come out on the winning side. For instance, say the average chalk on Randy Johnson last season was -300 money line. The D'Backs were 29-7 when Johnson started. If you wagerd on the Dbacks to win $500 only when Johnson started (say $1500 to win $500 here) then you would've lost $10,500. BUT you would've won $14,500. A $4,000 profit for the season give or take. You come out with a profit without any capping whatsoever, but merely following a top pitcher. Of course you'd need a HUUUGE bankroll.
 

giambi

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believe you lay off the chalk in the beginning and end actually just play runlines...........BUUUUUT when a team has no bullpen as in the bosox you dont touch that team if anything bet against...........and for the big unit now it seems the dodgers have his number you just have to be smart in my opinion
 

Nick Douglas

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I disagree completely with a) the idea that large chalk should be put in parlays and b) the idea that runlines should be bet if the chalk is too high. If you like the high chalk, just bet it flat. People who bet $100 flat and got burned by, say, Maddux, Pedro and Johnson yesterday are only down $300. You just have to come back and win 3 units worth of games over the next 180 days or so of the season.

The problem comes when you lose $100 instead of winning $40 because you gave 1 1/2 runs or when you lose $100 on a two team parlay instead of only losing $25 when the big chalk goes 1-1 on two $50 straight bets.

Now, all of this having been said, I am no proponent of backing big faves based on superstar pitchers. I think that big name pitchers often lose their value because the public loves them too much. I agree with most of what has been said in this thread but I just wanted to throw up a word of caution on the points that were made about runlines and parlays.
 

Valuist

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If those Randy Johnson numbers above are accurate, it shows just how tough it is to make money with big faves. We know most of these faves will be nowhere near as successful as the Big Unit last year:

Using $100 unit w/an average moneyline of -300, the bettor would've invested $10,800 (36 x 300). 29 times they'd gotten back $400 ($11,600). A profit of $800 (6.9% ROI).....but that's being right over 80% of the time. Being right over 80% of the time and yielding a sub 7% ROI is pretty depressing, actually.

Let's not forget the Cubs last year, who were 1-12 SU at one point when they were favored by -160 or higher.
 

shamrock

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Chris, Nick is advocating betting "flat", in other words betting $100 to win $42 on a $-240 favorite.

This is the only relatively safe way to play chalk, fletcher (Eric) also advocates this system.
 
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