Thoroughbred Sports Network Derby selections
PRETTY GOOD INFO HERE SO I THOUGHT ID POST
Well-matched accurately describes this year's contestants for the 128th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and we're expecting the track to be fast despite the possibility of morning showers in Louisville. The defection of Buddha (Unbridled's Song) leaves 19 three-year-olds for the best two minutes in sports.
CAME HOME (Gone West) is our pick to wear the roses. He's the most talented member of the field and has room for improvement off his 2 1/4-length score in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The nearly black colt had to be a little short for that start after losing a work due to a fever and a stall incident beforehand, and he came under a ride early from jockey Chris McCarron. Came Home responded with an extremely gutsy performance and simply doesn't like to lose. He did enough to win last time and has trained superbly for trainer Paco Gonzalez since arriving at Churchill Downs.
Despite earning only a 95 BRIS Speed rating last time, Came Home has recorded century-topping Speed figures from five of seven career starts. He faces distance questions based on the female side of his pedigree, but Came Home's sire has produced Commendable, winner of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont S. (G1), and other long-distance routers, so the endurance is there on his top side. After being more speed-oriented at two, Came Home has shown the ability to relax just off the pace in all three outings this season. His tactical speed should serve him well on Saturday, and we feel he'll be good enough to get the distance.
Came Home figures to sit just off the early runners heading into the first turn and possesses the turn of foot to grab the lead whenever McCarron wants. We'll look for the colt to turn for home in front, and he'll have to withstand the late runners in the stretch. As opposed to the last couple of years when we've seen strong rallies from Fusaichi Pegasus, Aptitude and Monarchos from well off the pace, the closers in this year's field all have serious question marks in terms of ability. We expect to see the entire field finishing slowly as Came Home takes the biggest prize in Thoroughbred racing.
MEDAGLIA D'ORO (El Prado [Ire]) has made tremendous strides for Bobby Frankel since being acquired off a February 9 maiden score at Oaklawn Park and may reward his conditioner with his first elusive Derby trophy. The dark bay colt moved from that maiden win to the San Felipe S. (G2) at Santa Anita and surprised more highly regarded rivals with a strong performance, re-rallying along the inside in the stretch for a 2 1/2-length score and a 103 Speed figure. Frankel sent his charge to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial (G1) next and Medaglia d'Oro just missed, finishing a head back of Buddha in this year's toughest Derby prep.
The colt was stuck between horses from the far turn to the wire and never gave an inch, battling gamely to the wire. He showed a ton of class and earned a 108 Speed rating (the second-best last race Speed figure in the field). Medaglia d'Oro has gained a lot of seasoning from his last two starts and may continue to move forward in the Derby. There are some concerns about a cough that Frankel reported last week, but the colt has worked well at six furlongs since then and appears to be 100 percent heading into the race. Medaglia d'Oro should enjoy a prominent trip stalking the pace and will be in position to pick up the pieces if our top choice falters.
PERFECT DRIFT (Dynaformer) has trained superbly at the Churchill Downs training center since capturing the Spiral S. (G2) and is the most formidable late runner runner present. Jockey Eddie Delahoussaye is a good fit for the Murray Johnson trainee, and Perfect Drift finished very fast to earn his first graded win six weeks ago at Turfway. Perfect Drift could have gotten another prep and it's been 46 years since a Derby winner entered the race off such a long layoff, but there's no denying that the sophomore has thrived in his recent preparations.
He completed the final eighth of his last workout in :10 1/5 and wouldn't shock us with a strong finish on Saturday. Perfect Drift ran well over the track in his career debut and has really moved forward as a three-year-old. His Speed ratings could be better and the vacation is a bit of a concern, but Perfect Drift looks like a horse sitting on a huge effort. We'll have to include him in our top three.
REQUEST FOR PAROLE (Judge T C) will offer excellent value for the exotics. The multiple stakes winner defeated Perfect Drift in his first two starts this year and was sent off the favorite in the Spiral, but he was taken out of his running style early as he wound up on the lead entering the first turn. Request for Parole still turned in a very game effort, finishing only a neck back at the wire, and he'll revert to a more favorable stalking trip in the Derby. The Steve Margolis-trained dark bay recorded a six-furlong bullet work last week and has the hottest jockey in Kentucky aboard in Robby Albarado. He's also run well over the track. Request for Parole appears capable of offering a challenge from just off the pace and might grab part.
HARLAN'S HOLIDAY (Harlan) exits impressive victories in the Blue Grass S. (G1) and Florida Derby (G1) but will have to continue to move forward to capture the Derby. He's extremely honest (10-6-4-0), owns huge Speed ratings and is a stakes winner at Churchill, but Harlan's Holiday's last drill under the Twin Spires did not impress us. He's been rank in the mornings and might take a step back off big wins in his last two outings. However, the bay colt can't be counted out and should be used in the exotics.
CASTLE GANDOLFO (Gone West) owns a tremendous pedigree for the Derby and will get the services of Jerry Bailey. A Group 3 winner and multiple Group 1-placed as a juvenile, the Coolmore colt will be making his U.S. debut, but he has experience on dirt-like conditions, capturing a stakes race last out over an all-weather English track by 2 1/2 lengths. The runner-up and third-place finisher both came back to win their next start, with the third-place finisher capturing the Italian Two Thousand Guineas (Ity-G2), and Castle Gandolfo rates as a dangerous sleeper. He'll be running late. PRIVATE EMBLEM (Our Emblem) doesn't have the Speed figures of some of the top contenders, but the New York-bred was very impressive when capturing the Arkansas Derby (G2) last out and must be respected. He appears to be training well for Steve Asmussen in the mornings and might deliver another strong finish from just off the pace.
SAARLAND (Unbridled) had throat surgery following his fourth-place finish in the Wood and has looked great in the mornings at Churchill. There are some things we don't like about the Shug McGaughey charge, but he can't be counted out for a top three finish from off the pace. Saarland has really never defeated anybody good and could be short at 1 1/4 miles off only two preps this year, but the well-bred colt owns plenty of potential. He may start to put it all together here. PROUD CITIZEN (Gone West) was a sharp winner of the Lexington S. (G2) and hopes to follow in the footsteps of former D. Wayne Lukas trainee Charismatic, who came to hand in the Lexington and parlayed that success into a Derby win. Proud Citizen will be forwardly placed early under Mike Smith and has room for further improvement, but he has only two starts this year and rode to the inside speed bias to victory last out. Proud Citizen may come up short.
PRETTY GOOD INFO HERE SO I THOUGHT ID POST
Well-matched accurately describes this year's contestants for the 128th running of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and we're expecting the track to be fast despite the possibility of morning showers in Louisville. The defection of Buddha (Unbridled's Song) leaves 19 three-year-olds for the best two minutes in sports.
CAME HOME (Gone West) is our pick to wear the roses. He's the most talented member of the field and has room for improvement off his 2 1/4-length score in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The nearly black colt had to be a little short for that start after losing a work due to a fever and a stall incident beforehand, and he came under a ride early from jockey Chris McCarron. Came Home responded with an extremely gutsy performance and simply doesn't like to lose. He did enough to win last time and has trained superbly for trainer Paco Gonzalez since arriving at Churchill Downs.
Despite earning only a 95 BRIS Speed rating last time, Came Home has recorded century-topping Speed figures from five of seven career starts. He faces distance questions based on the female side of his pedigree, but Came Home's sire has produced Commendable, winner of the 1 1/2-mile Belmont S. (G1), and other long-distance routers, so the endurance is there on his top side. After being more speed-oriented at two, Came Home has shown the ability to relax just off the pace in all three outings this season. His tactical speed should serve him well on Saturday, and we feel he'll be good enough to get the distance.
Came Home figures to sit just off the early runners heading into the first turn and possesses the turn of foot to grab the lead whenever McCarron wants. We'll look for the colt to turn for home in front, and he'll have to withstand the late runners in the stretch. As opposed to the last couple of years when we've seen strong rallies from Fusaichi Pegasus, Aptitude and Monarchos from well off the pace, the closers in this year's field all have serious question marks in terms of ability. We expect to see the entire field finishing slowly as Came Home takes the biggest prize in Thoroughbred racing.
MEDAGLIA D'ORO (El Prado [Ire]) has made tremendous strides for Bobby Frankel since being acquired off a February 9 maiden score at Oaklawn Park and may reward his conditioner with his first elusive Derby trophy. The dark bay colt moved from that maiden win to the San Felipe S. (G2) at Santa Anita and surprised more highly regarded rivals with a strong performance, re-rallying along the inside in the stretch for a 2 1/2-length score and a 103 Speed figure. Frankel sent his charge to Aqueduct for the Wood Memorial (G1) next and Medaglia d'Oro just missed, finishing a head back of Buddha in this year's toughest Derby prep.
The colt was stuck between horses from the far turn to the wire and never gave an inch, battling gamely to the wire. He showed a ton of class and earned a 108 Speed rating (the second-best last race Speed figure in the field). Medaglia d'Oro has gained a lot of seasoning from his last two starts and may continue to move forward in the Derby. There are some concerns about a cough that Frankel reported last week, but the colt has worked well at six furlongs since then and appears to be 100 percent heading into the race. Medaglia d'Oro should enjoy a prominent trip stalking the pace and will be in position to pick up the pieces if our top choice falters.
PERFECT DRIFT (Dynaformer) has trained superbly at the Churchill Downs training center since capturing the Spiral S. (G2) and is the most formidable late runner runner present. Jockey Eddie Delahoussaye is a good fit for the Murray Johnson trainee, and Perfect Drift finished very fast to earn his first graded win six weeks ago at Turfway. Perfect Drift could have gotten another prep and it's been 46 years since a Derby winner entered the race off such a long layoff, but there's no denying that the sophomore has thrived in his recent preparations.
He completed the final eighth of his last workout in :10 1/5 and wouldn't shock us with a strong finish on Saturday. Perfect Drift ran well over the track in his career debut and has really moved forward as a three-year-old. His Speed ratings could be better and the vacation is a bit of a concern, but Perfect Drift looks like a horse sitting on a huge effort. We'll have to include him in our top three.
REQUEST FOR PAROLE (Judge T C) will offer excellent value for the exotics. The multiple stakes winner defeated Perfect Drift in his first two starts this year and was sent off the favorite in the Spiral, but he was taken out of his running style early as he wound up on the lead entering the first turn. Request for Parole still turned in a very game effort, finishing only a neck back at the wire, and he'll revert to a more favorable stalking trip in the Derby. The Steve Margolis-trained dark bay recorded a six-furlong bullet work last week and has the hottest jockey in Kentucky aboard in Robby Albarado. He's also run well over the track. Request for Parole appears capable of offering a challenge from just off the pace and might grab part.
HARLAN'S HOLIDAY (Harlan) exits impressive victories in the Blue Grass S. (G1) and Florida Derby (G1) but will have to continue to move forward to capture the Derby. He's extremely honest (10-6-4-0), owns huge Speed ratings and is a stakes winner at Churchill, but Harlan's Holiday's last drill under the Twin Spires did not impress us. He's been rank in the mornings and might take a step back off big wins in his last two outings. However, the bay colt can't be counted out and should be used in the exotics.
CASTLE GANDOLFO (Gone West) owns a tremendous pedigree for the Derby and will get the services of Jerry Bailey. A Group 3 winner and multiple Group 1-placed as a juvenile, the Coolmore colt will be making his U.S. debut, but he has experience on dirt-like conditions, capturing a stakes race last out over an all-weather English track by 2 1/2 lengths. The runner-up and third-place finisher both came back to win their next start, with the third-place finisher capturing the Italian Two Thousand Guineas (Ity-G2), and Castle Gandolfo rates as a dangerous sleeper. He'll be running late. PRIVATE EMBLEM (Our Emblem) doesn't have the Speed figures of some of the top contenders, but the New York-bred was very impressive when capturing the Arkansas Derby (G2) last out and must be respected. He appears to be training well for Steve Asmussen in the mornings and might deliver another strong finish from just off the pace.
SAARLAND (Unbridled) had throat surgery following his fourth-place finish in the Wood and has looked great in the mornings at Churchill. There are some things we don't like about the Shug McGaughey charge, but he can't be counted out for a top three finish from off the pace. Saarland has really never defeated anybody good and could be short at 1 1/4 miles off only two preps this year, but the well-bred colt owns plenty of potential. He may start to put it all together here. PROUD CITIZEN (Gone West) was a sharp winner of the Lexington S. (G2) and hopes to follow in the footsteps of former D. Wayne Lukas trainee Charismatic, who came to hand in the Lexington and parlayed that success into a Derby win. Proud Citizen will be forwardly placed early under Mike Smith and has room for further improvement, but he has only two starts this year and rode to the inside speed bias to victory last out. Proud Citizen may come up short.
