Thoughts and Picks for the entire Big Dance

[johnnyb.]

nickel, you been tough on wash huskies all year, not surprised by your opening comment.
i think wash will go as far as that offense carries them. i personally think they go can much further than your cats, obviously their seeding makes my decision a lot easier. cats could be an elite team if they had a power forward to compliment their center. G/L

 

[bryanz]

what kind of team is org st and what defense did org st use to beat UCLA ?

 

[Nickelback]

Very true johnny. . . between Arizona and Washington, I would take Arizona in a tournament setup like this. . . reason being that Arizona is the more complete team. You are 100% correct though in that if Radenovich or Walters could step up and help Frye then they could be like Illinois. . . but just hasn't happened.

I've been tough on Washington because I don't believe they play on both ends. . . they slack on defense at times and it is evident when they foul 20+ times in a single game. . . there were several during the Pac-10 season and even on their own home floor! If they can put it together and play D then I would take them in a second over Arizona for obvious reasons. But with a possible game against Pitt coming up, I think the Huskies are not in a favorable position as the one seed.

Of course, Arizona could fall to Utah State quite easily (especially given the line move which is amazing IMO. . . down to 5 now) or get to the Elite Eight and play Illinois. Certainly can't see them going any further.

 

[Nickelback]

Gotta talk about Arizona v. Utah State

Just read an article on a website indicating that the wise guys are all over Utah State . . . this appears to be true. I still can't believe how low the line was to begin with but the fact that it has fallen two points has most cappers shaking their heads.

The fact is that Utah State has to be the side to take. . . I hate to say that more than anything. On the surface I want to unload my account on Arizona but there's no chance of that given the line movement. . . I'll just sit back and root for Arizona to get the win somehow.

This should still raise a red flag. . . any average joe that goes to Vegas this week and sees that line will put money or want to put money on Arizona and plenty of it. Don't be one of them.

That being said, I hope the squares take this one! LOL

 

[Spalding]

Good luck with Kansas. They would be the worst shooting team in the history of the tournament to make the Final Four. I just cannot back them.

Good luck Nickel!

 

[Nickelback]

Spalding, the percentages don't support your theory. . . Kansas shooting nearly 48% overall and over 50% average their last five games. . . not the greatest three point shooting team to be sure but overall FG% is very good for the Jayhawks

 

[Spalding]

We will see I guess.

 

[Nickelback]

Adding Pitt -3.5 above average

 

[IE]

pomeroy on the game.....excepts...

Now, a breakdown of Arizona/Utah State, set to tip at 7:20 EST on Thursday from Taco Bell Arena in Boise, Idaho. It's the game I am most looking forward to on day one of the tourney.

Hey Ken,

Thanks for providing just about the only statistical resource for college basketball on the Web. Without you, I'd have to calculate all the team efficiencies by hand like I did last year, and that's always a pain.

Anyways, I agree that Utah State is a rough 14 seed for Arizona, since they have the statistical profile of a team seeded between 6 and 8.

But someone has to give some more love to Spencer Nelson! I don't think I've ever heard his name mentioned in the media (although he was First Team All Big West), but it seems to me that he deserves to be ranked up along with Andrew Bogut and Danny Granger as the leading mid-major superstars.

His numbers are 16.4 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 4.8 apg, and a .611 FG% in just 29.4 mpg at the slow Utah State tempo. His Offensive Rating is an absurd 128, made more absurd by the fact that he uses 31% of his team's possessions. His Floor Percentage? 63%.

Jeremiah

Now this is what we like to see. The fans talking offensive rating and such. Jeremiah is responding to Monday's post where I promoted Utah State as the most dangerous 14 seed in the history of man, and more specifically the Aggies' sharpshooter Jaycee Carroll as one of their weapons.

I singled out Carroll mainly because he broke free from the basketball shackles of Wyoming to make it playing college ball. In truth, Nelson is clearly the star of the Aggies, his numbers suggesting he is the Grant Hill of the Big West. Also, Nelson is from Pocatello which is not a basketball hotbed even within Idaho, so he's a true heartwarming story playing in his home state on Thursday.

Nelson's offensive rating is even better than Jeremiah suggested - 133 on 30% of his team's possessions, which are Coppenrath-type numbers. USU's average tempo (raw) was 312th in the nation during the regular season and is 63rd among tourney teams. The fastest team in the dance is UNC, and they have averaged about 25% more possessions per game than USU. Ratchet Nelson's numbers up by a quarter - he'd average 21, 10, and 6 - and I am sure he would get more attention.

Nelson scores efficiently, distributes, cleans the glass, and despite all of this activity, doesn't turn it over much. His 61.1% FG% ranks 11th nationally, but second on his own team. Nate Harris is #2 in the nation at 65.4%.

As a start in comparing the Wildcats and the Aggies, let's compare the main team stats of each, using the adjusted numbers from the stats page, with national rank in parentheses...
Utah St. Arizona
Tempo 63.4(305) 70.3(63)
Offensive Efficiency 115.6(16) 115.9(15)
Defensive Efficiency 91.8(31) 93.1(49)

Here's a breakdown of Utah State's important players (this font comes out kind of small, so bump up your browser font size to save wear and tear on your eyes)...

Player Off Rtg. %Poss %Shots %Min PPG TO%
Nelson, Spencer (F).... 133 29.6 24.8 72.9 16.4 19.2
Carroll, Jaycee (G).... 122 20.9 26.9 75.2 14.6 16.6
Harris, Nate (F)....... 128 19.6 21.3 76.2 13.0 16.1
Pak, David (G)......... 97 21.2 21.0 55.4 6.2 26.7
Matheus, Cass (C)...... 121 20.1 19.1 37.8 6.2 15.2
Williams, Jason (F).... 106 15.9 17.5 41.5 5.3 18.3
Huber, Chris (G)....... 110 14.7 13.8 45.4 3.9 25.0
Neil, John (F)......... 101 14.2 14.4 43.9 3.9 25.3

(Argh, do we really need another basketball player named Jason Williams?)

Check out this post if you don't know what the above numbers mean. I am introducing turnover percentage here, which quantifies how often an individual's possession results in a turnover. Point guards typically have the highest values in this column, due to how often they handle the ball.

Now here's Arizona...

Player Off Rtg. %Poss %Shots %Min PPG TO%
Stoudamire, Salim (G) 127 24.9 29.2 79.5 18.4 19.6
Frye, Channing (C) 125 26.6 29.4 80.3 15.8 13.7
Adams, Hassan (G) 108 27.6 29.6 76.6 12.2 19.3
Shakur, Mustafa (G) 104 22.4 19.8 75.9 8.3 26.8
Radenovic, Ivan (F) 106 22.7 23.2 64.9 8.6 19.6
McClellan, Jawann (G) 113 22.0 22.1 39.6 5.6 19.8
Rodgers, Chris (G) 107 19.8 22.6 49.0 5.6 17.3
Fox, Isaiah (F) 84 19.2 17.1 20.9 2.1 31.4

(Looking at the above numbers is it any wonder Isaiah Fox has slid off the end of Lute Olson's bench towards the end of this season?)

I think the key matchup is between the point guards. Arizona figures to have a substantial advantage with Mustafa Shakur against the USU platoon of David Pak and Chris Huber. The Aggies point guards will have to play over their heads in order to control tempo and distribute the ball to their effective scorers. The offensive numbers of the respective players are similar, but Shakur has done it against much more difficult opponents. Pak and Huber have not seen the quickness of Shakur all season.

Player Off Rtg. %Poss %Shots PPG TO%
Shakur, Mustafa 104 22.4 19.8 8.3 26.8
Pak + Huber 103 18.3 17.7 10.1 26.1

I really can't wait to see what happens. The respective teams' numbers are surprisingly similar across the board (except tempo) considering we are talking about a 3/14 game. The wacky thing here is that if Arizona survives, they will likely be a bigger favorite in their second round game, which could be against a six seed.

 

[Bobmac]

good luck today Nickel :mj14:

 

[Nickelback]

Thanks guys. . .

Adding Utah -3 above average

 

[Nickelback]

Split so far today. . . still ticked off about Iowa. . . nice of Niagara to lay down in the 2nd half as well but we move on:

West Virginia -1 over Creighton above average
UCLA +4 over Texas Tech average

Saving tomorrow for the big plays as listed above. . . gl all

 

[gjn23]

Arizona.....here we go

 

[Nickelback]

ML first half looks a little tasty gjn

 

[gjn23]

win is a win

cover is even better

on to uab

figured we'd struggle for a while (30 mins or so) and then win by DD.

-5.5 for a 3 seed??????

even though it was a road game, vs a team with slow tempo, and a team that might have been better seeded as a 12/13......the line was a joke.

 

[Nickelback]

Wonder what the line will be. . . I think Arizona matches up great with UAB. . . looks like UAB doesn't rebound very well. Should be an emphasis for Arizona

 

[gjn23]

more possessions in the uab game...means better matchup for us....but in the end, still have to win....think we will be fav by more than we were vs utah state....7-8ish

 

[BASON]

Nice call on NC State. Stick with the ACC and take Tech tonight. Is anyone on Michigan St., every service is on ODU, they were all on Charlotte also. I hate the Big 10, but my money is against ODU.

Good Luck.

 

[gjn23]

nickel..tried to warn you about kansas....that team is full of non-shooters and a poor coach who plays a slow tempo....this team has seriously regressed the last 3 weeks...didn't see them losing to bucknell (but not a total shock) but didnt see them winning more than 1-2 games.

oh well...who cares

arizona ml tomorrow is all that matters

 

[Nickelback]

Yeah well, I wasn't about to take North Carolina in the Final Four with 99% of the public! Oh well, brackets are busted but the Cats are still in!

2 team ML parlay VERY BIG:

Arizona & Washington. . . feel like both teams match up quite well to UAB and Pacific. Washington got a real break with Pacific beating up on Pitt and Arizona matches up a little better with UAB over LSU as UAB doesn't crash the boards. UAB very athletic and they like an uptempo pace which is to Arizona's liking. Pacific not as physical or aggressive as Pitt which I felt would cause Washington major problems. . . if Washington meets Wake Forest in the Elite Eight, I will take the Huskies