Thoughts and Picks for the entire Big Dance

[Nickelback]

Not a big fan of the Saturday card but Sunday looks great to me:

NC State +4 over UCONN VERY BIG
So. Illinois +9 over OSU BIG
Miss State +8 over Duke BIG

 

[gjn23]

stay away from ncst...uconn is the team in that region....4 is not a big number for a team that has too much size for ncst

 

[Nickelback]

Think NC State's offensive schemes will get it done over the Huskies. . . really like this Wolfpack team

 

[Nickelback]

Arizona over 41 2nd half team total. . . UAB doesn't have anything that Arizona hasn't seen several times this season. They are gritty and force Arizona to be patient with the ball but it has led to easy looks underneath for Frye and Radenovich. . . even Walters is getting in on the action which spells doom to UAB.

 

[Nickelback]

Good day for the Pac-10 and myself. . .

GJN, now we know why Lute pulled Walter's redshirt! What a huge effort from him when Channing Frye was off his game a little and in foul trouble. Great defensive effort from the entire team. And yes, the Pac-10 can play defense. . . lol

And yes, Arizona has the best pure shooter in the country even when he is below his percentages like he was today.

 

[Nickelback]

Adding Cincy 2nd half ML +155 average play

Great value IMO. . . by the numbers, this is the only way to go

GL

 

[gjn23]

yes indeed...figured walters would be key at some pointthis tourney....fox has been such a zero that when-if frye got into foul trouble arizona would be in BIG trouble..walters gives us something on both ends (still a bit limited on offense but i cant even imagin playing with fox out there).

off to chicago...got my game tix, plane tix and ready to roll....want illini bad next sat but need to beat okie st-so ill first.

Bear Down!

 

[Nickelback]

Have fun!

IF (and certainly a big if) Arizona gets to the Final Four, I'll be there

 

[gjn23]

as will I

gets much tougher from here, but like that we have a week to prepare for ok-state/so ill (think so ill will give ok state a game tomorrow and may win)....would be interesting to see the following teams in chicago:

ill
uw-milwaukee
so. illinois
and
arizona

would 80% of the crowd at the game know where arizona was on a map?

 

[Nickelback]

Yeah, Arizona has a nice advantage with the extra day to prepare for the Sweet Sixteen. Definitely rooting for Southern Illinois as I think Arizona matches up better but I think Arizona can hang with OSU as well. . . would be a damn good game

 

[Sun Tzu]

Believe me I dont want to see Eddie Sutton win but I think Arizona got their last W today. I cant see them beating OSU, and beating a confident SIU team in Chicago no picnic either.

 

[gjn23]

yeah arizona beating ok state would be a total shocker.....as a pick em game its hard to see arizona having a chance

come on.

that game is would be about as even as it gets

 

[Nickelback]

I knew you'd say that about OSU Sun but to say that Southern Illinois would beat Arizona is a little stretch. . . of course they could win with a good game but you know Arizona isn't chop liver. . . just like OSU isn't and OSU should come out with the win over SIU even though I think it'll be close.

If we get OSU v. Arizona, as gjn said, this would be a virtual pickem. . . remember that assuming Illinois was the overall #1 that means OSU was the last #2 seed picked and Arizon was the first #3 seed. Basically the #8 vs. #9 team on a neutral court.

But take a look further. . . specifically the stats. They are virtually identical. Both teams have shot the ball about 5% better than their opponent. Both are above 40% from the three point line while holding opponents to well below 40%. Both teams are incredible free throw shooting teams at 77%. And both teams out rebound their opponents by about 5 a game.

 

[Nickelback]

Wisc-Milwaukee +10 over Illinois. . . doubt they will win but very gritty team and will give Illinois all they want and more

 

[Sun Tzu]

You make alot more out of stats like that than I do. If stats meant that much well they wouldnt need to play most games. But suffice it to say one of the two did it against the No 2 schedule in the country and has almost everyone back from a final four team. Of course, as we all know, they have to win tomorrow first. The line is certainly an irrelevant consideration as to who you think will win - just because the line might be a pick that means I should think Arizona will win?

As for ft shooting, those stats are nice for both, but what matters is ina close game is what they do in the clutch. Cant speak for the season, but I did watch a clankathon down the stretch against Washington.

 

[gjn23]

no the line doesn't mean you should think that arizona will win but to say you cant see them beating ok state is a bit of a stretch.

if i said i cant see ok state beating arizona would you believe me?

the teams are pretty even, whoever plays the best, whoever makes the best coaching adjustments will win....and it could be either team.

 

[Sun Tzu]

well gj you are a tad biased.

 

[Nickelback]

Stats are a good indicator of strengths vs. weaknesses. . . of course they still need to play the game! Anything can happen on a given day. . . that's how upsets happen.

And yes both teams played tough schedules. . . yes, OSU's was a little stronger but both have been battle tested

Also, what are you talking about? I said this game should be EVEN! I didn't say take Arizona if the game is at a pick! LOL. . . I didn't even say anyone should take Arizona at all. . . I think its a virtual draw but if either team gets 3 points, I'd certainly take it! If OSU is +3 my opinion play would be on them.

Yes, Arizona struggled against Washington at the end of the last two matchups. . . but I can certainly find games where OSU struggled as well towards the end of some of their losses. To say that either has a better chance to struggle at the end of a game is impossible.

 

[Nickelback]

Yet another close stat:

both teams suffered only one loss on their home floor. . .

Arizona 13-5 away from their home court
OSU 12-5 away from their home court

 

[gjn23]

a tad biased?

i think either team can win
i think these teams are even
i can see ok state winning

you can't see arizona winning

who's biased

fuk it, i hope so illinois wins tomorrow anyway!