Thoughts & Observations-MONDAY

Home Wrecker

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 26, 2002
1,006
5
38
Denver
Knicks @ Orlando

I have seen the Knicks getting as much as 6, most places 5. First thoughts are with Knicks in a revenge game from their season opener OT HOME loss. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five visits to Orlando. Some minor turmoil in Orlando with McGrady calling teamates out after loss to Detroit 96-85.

"My guys are starting to learn each other and they don't know where their spots are at," said McGrady, who finished 10-of-24 from the field and 10-of-11 from the foul line."

"Nobody knows when to cut, where to cut; point guards don't know if they should pass or stay or go through. So, there's a little bit of confusion there."

Early thoughts are taking the points with the Knicks.


New Orleans @ Atlanta

Very strong early lean on New Orleans Money Line. Its the first time the Hornets have started 3-0 ever. They are playing with a lot of confidence and are emotionally up. On the other side they get a team in a bit of a downer after blowing an 18 point lead against the Pacers that resulted in Jason Terry being suspended for tonights game (their offense won't run without him-29 points in Indiana loss) The Atlanta Hawks are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS this season. Can't see New Orleans losing this one.

San Antonio @ Memphis

Early thoughts are to take the defending champ San Antonio Spurs on a very small money line -125. This line seems to a bit of an over reaction to the injuries of Spurs point guards. They still cause several match up problems for the Grizz. With Duncan, Rose, Turkoglu, Bowen, Horry, Nesterovic, and Ginobili you will get a tough nosed defensive unit that I foresee winning this game. The Spurs have dominated the series with the Grizzlies, winning 27 of 31 meetings all time, including a 15-1 mark on the road. They haven't looked good this year yet, but this match up might just be what the doctor has ordered.

Miami @ Dallas

Love the Mavericks here giving up the large number (-13.5). Mavericks are one team that seems to cover the big numbers most often. Huge mismatches at every position. Mavs are having fun with all the fire power they have and will be too deep for the Heat. They get an Eastern Conf. team at home tonight in what will be a blowout worse then the Jazz on Saturday night.

Houston @ Chicago

First thoughts are to side with the Rockets as I feel the Western Conf is much better then the Eastern Conf, but these Bulls will cause problems for teams this year in Chicago. Either way, I thnk the true value lies in the total rather then the side. These two teams have gone over the total in the last 4 meetings, 6 of the last 7 and 8 of the last 10. I hate playing overs in the first 3 weeks of the NBA season, but I see this one getting up there close to 200.

Minny @ Utah

Minny -3.5????? What the hell is going here? Is this a case of the oddsmakers basing the line on past seasons? I can't figure this one out. Minny has been very good defensively but haven't found their offense. In most interviews I am very encouraged to see patience that the players portray. They realize that good defense wins games and that the offense will come around. Tonight, I feel like we will see the offense come out. Utah is young and are doing the right things in building, but I think we see the true talent differences come out in this match up. Three and half points seems like something is really fishy with this game though.......???????? Leaning towards Minny, shouldn't we all be?

Philly @ Portland

Similar to the Heat/Mavs game we get an Eastern Conference team playing away to a Western Conference power. Portland is strong at Home, Philly is very questionable both on the road and to the Western Conference....loss back to back to Sacremento and Golden State. Philly's only win is over the Heat? They get the Big Dog back tonight, but just how good will he and Iverson work together? Zach Randolph is playing very tough....but it is the portland trailblazers and they are the one team that always seems to kill me when I bet for or against them....so my early lean is to STAY AWAY...



Feel free to offer your opinions.

Back later with plays,

GL

YAZ
 

Kdogg21

who?
Forum Member
Dec 8, 2001
5,364
0
0
48
Chicago,IL
Great point on the HOUSTON/CHICAGO total. Bulls haven't shot the bull really well, but Im sure the guards will be busy putting up some shots since they probably will be afraid to go inside with Curry. I'm looking at 100-90 score somewhere around there. It looks easy to take the Rockets like you say, but you never know with the Bulls at home. They play 10x's better there than on the road.

Nice write ups and good luck tonight!!!
 

the_allt

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 25, 2003
495
1
0
Milwaukee
Minny and New Orleans do seem like pretty obvious plays. They are on the road, but if they win the game, I've got to believe that they would cover the spread.

Looking forward to your picks.
 

Home Wrecker

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 26, 2002
1,006
5
38
Denver
Dallas -14 BIG
Dallas over 188 BIG
SA ML MED

Back later if I play anymore....still looking at maybe playing the over in Hou-chi and Minny ML.

GL

YAZ
 
Last edited:

Home Wrecker

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 26, 2002
1,006
5
38
Denver
Just to clarify in units....I changed some of my plays. Dropped NO and added the over in the mavs game.


I have decided to go:

Mavs -14 5 units
Mavs over 188 5 units

SA ML 3 units

Stayed off New Orleans after all....

GL

YAZ
 

Home Wrecker

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 26, 2002
1,006
5
38
Denver
Reasoning behind changes. Dropped NO because I am intimidated by the ol' theory of a team rebounding around the loss of player to a suspension or injury.....and there at home getting points in that scenario. New Orleans definitely the better team and have doing some rebounding around the loss of Mash so far, but just to many intangibles for me tonight in my quest to keep my number of plays to a minimum.


I really feel good about the Mavs at Home. Crowd should be very large as people are excited to get out and see the new guys. I expect them to feed off the momentum, which they should have most of the game. They are still running several different combinations to try to find what works best.....what does that mean.....focus on the offense.....score, score, and score some more. They are still a poor defensive team that is not putting a ton of emphasis on getting better in my opinion (no matter what Nellie says to the press), therefore I foresee players like Eddie Jones, Lamar Odom, Dwayne Wade, and Alston as loving an opportunity to play in a faced paced, open court game like they will get tonight. Even their big men Udonis Haslem, and B. Grant will enjoy running more IMO. There is no more Pat Riley....If they are able to score the 81 that they scored on Detroit (who puts all their focus on D) then this one gets over the total easy......WHEN WILL YOU EVER GET AN OPPORTUNITY TO GET A MAVS TOTAL UNDER 190, LET ALONE A MAVS GAME AT 188 AT HOME!!!!!!

Mavs roll as they just have too many horses for this Heat team. Look for more then the 7 players who scored double digits Saturday night vs Utah. I also look for all 12 players to get pt, the only one who didn't play Saturday was Josh Howard, and even with bench players in the game they never lost a quarter....

Stuck with SA for earlier posted remarks, but reduced the amount due to it being in Memphis and the point guards being out. Was also banking on them coming out of the daze they have been in so far this year, but until they show me some kind of consistancy they just don't warrant big plays right now!!!


GL

YAZ
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top