Thoughts on betting NBA games...

[Glenn Quagmire]

First let me just say that I suck at handicapping the NBA. Secondly, I think the NBA is the hardest sport to cap. Why? Tonight's SA/GS game is a perfect example. How on earth do you ever know when a team is going to show up in this sport? Don't get me wrong, even if SA played their azzes off they probably would have lost against a very good GS team. That said, one night a team can look like the best team in the league, the next they may lose to the doormat of the league.

Just last week Miami got blown out on the road by the Jailblazers. No effort by them at all. A few games later, on the same road trip in which you think they would be a lot more tired, they go into Phoenix and actually beat PHX by DD. Maximum effort last night. So one night they feel like playing hard and one night they don't?

Maybe I'm oversimplifying things but it just seems like you can often tell within the first few minutes of a game whether or not a team is going to give a good effort. I understand the season is a grind and they get tired on the road, but that certainly wasn't an issue for Miami the other night.

Thoughts? Am I crazy or is it pretty damn hard to guess when a team is going to show up and when they aren't?

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

First let me just say that I suck at handicapping the NBA. Secondly, I think the NBA is the hardest sport to cap. Why? Tonight's SA/GS game is a perfect example. How on earth do you ever know when a team is going to show up in this sport? Don't get me wrong, even if SA played their azzes off they probably would have lost against a very good GS team. That said, one night a team can look like the best team in the league, the next they may lose to the doormat of the league.

Just last week Miami got blown out on the road by the Jailblazers. No effort by them at all. A few games later, on the same road trip in which you think they would be a lot more tired, they go into Phoenix and actually beat PHX by DD. Maximum effort last night. So one night they feel like playing hard and one night they don't?

Maybe I'm oversimplifying things but it just seems like you can often tell within the first few minutes of a game whether or not a team is going to give a good effort. I understand the season is a grind and they get tired on the road, but that certainly wasn't an issue for Miami the other night.

Thoughts? Am I crazy or is it pretty damn hard to guess when a team is going to show up and when they aren't?

Let me try and pick your questions apart and answer them if I may. Seeing as NBA games are what I bet the most, obviously. I'm a diehard Basketball fan and I love to bet on the games. Honestly, I can't explain what it is, but I just sometimes get a feel for games by watching them, listening to them, etc...AND that's why you'll see me posting Quarter and Half plays. Of all my bets, I would say 90% of them are based on quarter and half plays depending on the spread and O/U.

Typically unless I feel VERY confident, I lay a small wager on 1Q/1H lines and get a feel for the game and at halftime make my larger risk/reward bets.

I look at alot of things. I don't just look at the teams playing and say, "Well, Team A is better, so they're obviously going to win." I look at things such as INJURIES, how many games have they played in the last 5 days. Where have those games been? How do they play @Home/Road vs a certain amount of rest. Also take into part how good of a defensive team they might be playing. I also like to take a look at every teams 1Q/2Q/3Q/4Q and see if I can depict an average or consistancy. Alot of teams you can really see trends. Not GURANTEED trends, but things that reoccur.

Honestly, I'm a horrible football capper. Alot of times I have a VERY hard time looking at games and being able to pick them apart. So I can see what your "frustration" or "confusion" is, because I'm the same way with football.

In a summary, I think the only way to explain how/why people bet on basketball is it's just their cup of tea and they understand it BETTER. You could understand another sport BETTER.

Hope this helps. If not, don't feel bad that I ranted on about nothing, I do that alot.

 

[eins]

I'm sort of in the same boat as BUCS. I've realized that I get more winners when I do 1H/2H plays instead of betting on the spread ahead of gametime. I just get a better feel of where the game is headed and makes bets easier IMO..

I'm a lot better of a capper in NCAA hoops though, but I still can't stay away from the NBA.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Thanks for the detailed response Bucs. That definitely helps. Typically what happens with me is I end up playing the NBA for a couple of weeks, then end up saying "Oh yeah, that's why I don't play the NBA" and end up quitting it for the season. :mj07: But I think you have the right idea. It's always good to watch games, get a feel for the game itself, and then place bets accordingly. I think that's especially true in the NBA.

The odd thing is that I do fairly well at NCAA hoops. But that probably has more to do with the fact that I'm mostly a situational bettor, and I think things like homecourt/revenge factor, etc. mean more in college than they do in the pros. For that reason I've always fared much better at college sports (hoops and football especially) than pro sports.

Thanks again. Good luck with your plays!

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

Thanks for the detailed response Bucs. That definitely helps. Typically what happens with me is I end up playing the NBA for a couple of weeks, then end up saying "Oh yeah, that's why I don't play the NBA" and end up quitting it for the season. :mj07: But I think you have the right idea. It's always good to watch games, get a feel for the game itself, and then place bets accordingly. I think that's especially true in the NBA.

The odd thing is that I do fairly well at NCAA hoops. But that probably has more to do with the fact that I'm mostly a situational bettor, and I think things like homecourt/revenge factor, etc. mean more in college than they do in the pros. For that reason I've always fared much better at college sports (hoops and football especially) than pro sports.

Thanks again. Good luck with your plays!

You could be very well right about the situations. In professional sports, I really don't think homecourts, fields, etc...are as important as people think. They help? Yes! But, not like college sports where they are easily an advantage and could be the factor in the game.

My best suggestion would be is if you do bet on any NBA games, watch them or listen to them. Unless I bet on the spread, I watch/listen to every game I play. You should see it, it's quite comical.

I yell at scrubs for taking shots, then I yell at the coach for making stupid substitutions.

Anyways, I'm gald I could help, some, in any way. Hope you do better.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Yeah, I typically have a game on the TV and then follow multiple games on the computer. I really need to get out more. :142smilie