Thoughts on the Colorado-Philadelphia Over/Under

[ndnfan]

When I first saw this over/under of 8, I thought it looked to low but the more I looked into it, I'm convinced it's going UNDER. So Played:

UNDER 8 +100 COLORADO-PHILLY

Some stuff that stands out:

4 of the 6 games played vs each other this season were over 8 runs, but 2 of the 3 at Philly were Under and one reason are due to the fact that the Rockies are just a dismal hitting team on the road. Rockies team batting average on the road this season is just .235 and vs lefties on the road,they are even worse at just .210 They are facing lefty Cliff Lee in this game and in Lee's only start vs the Rockies this season, he only gave up 1 run scattering 6 hits over 7 innings while striking out 9.

Rockies starter, Jimenez stats on the road this year are very good and unlike most starting pitchers, having good road stats are rare...shows you can maybe handle pressure a little better. His Away ERA is 3.58 and has only allowed a total of 95 hits in 115.2 innings on the road. His opponents average vs him is just .225

Another reason I like the Under is that even though Philly is a small ballpark, both starting pitchers tend to keep the ball in the park: Jiminez has allowed just 13 homeruns all season and only 6 on the road and Lee has only given up 17 all season which spans 231.2 innings...so less homeruns, means less quick runs.

Bullpens seem capable as well.

Good luck whatever you have today..just thought I'd share my thoughts :0corn

-ndnfan

 

[ndnfan]

Just a few more thoughts on the pitcher's home run tendencies since homeruns will kill an Under:

Rockies Starter Jimenez is a true groundball pitcher which of course will keep the homers down and especially could get him out of trouble if a runner or 2 get on since he does tend to walk a few more batter than someone like Lee. A double-play is a groundball pitchers best friend. Ran the groundout/flyout the last 10 starts and here's his ratio: 96 groundouts to 43 flyouts =excellent ratio.

Lee on the other hands is NOT a groundball pitcher, never really has been although he does more/less try to induce groundballs, his style and numbers definely don't classify him as on. Watched enough of his starts with Cleveland and can verify that. In case you're wondering...the last 10 starts his ratio is: 71 ground outs to 74 flyouts. Big plus with Lee is though that he does keep the ball in the park for the most part and since he RARELY walks anyone even if he would give up a shot, it's probably gonna be a solo homer. He's only walked 43 batters in 231.2 innings this season and last season he only walked 34 in 223.1 innings.

Good luck to all

 

[LDB]

GL BUDDY:toast:

 

[jtc1984]

In my opinion the Philly bullpen is not capable at all. Strong shifting winds and the possibility of rain delays puts me on the over strong

 

[ndnfan]

In my opinion the Philly bullpen is not capable at all. Strong shifting winds and the possibility of rain delays puts me on the over strong

jtc1984......if there are rain delays, I agree with you to a point and it probably would hurt the Under play more, but still think and the numbers show that the Rockies are just so pathetic hitting away from Coors field. A .235 team batting average the entire season on the road is just pathetic and Colorado's bullpen has been pretty good all season.

GL to you today no matter who you're on!

 

[LuvThemDogs]

29 MPH wind is blowing out to center I believe...

LTD

 

[The Sponge]

29 MPH wind is blowing out to center I believe...

LTD

Very windy here today.

 

[PJ12]

There wont be any rain delays

 

[THUNDER]

Just a few more thoughts on the pitcher's home run tendencies since homeruns will kill an Under:

Rockies Starter Jimenez is a true groundball pitcher which of course will keep the homers down and especially could get him out of trouble if a runner or 2 get on since he does tend to walk a few more batter than someone like Lee. A double-play is a groundball pitchers best friend. Ran the groundout/flyout the last 10 starts and here's his ratio: 96 groundouts to 43 flyouts =excellent ratio.

Lee on the other hands is NOT a groundball pitcher, never really has been although he does more/less try to induce groundballs, his style and numbers definely don't classify him as on. Watched enough of his starts with Cleveland and can verify that. In case you're wondering...the last 10 starts his ratio is: 71 ground outs to 74 flyouts. Big plus with Lee is though that he does keep the ball in the park for the most part and since he RARELY walks anyone even if he would give up a shot, it's probably gonna be a solo homer. He's only walked 43 batters in 231.2 innings this season and last season he only walked 34 in 223.1 innings.

Good luck to all

OVER THE LASt 2 YEARS SINCE HIS SHITTY 2007 SEASON HE HAS BECOME A HUGE GROUNDBALL GUY

 

[ndnfan]

OVER THE LASt 2 YEARS SINCE HIS SHITTY 2007 SEASON HE HAS BECOME A HUGE GROUNDBALL GUY

Thunder...Lee has gotten a lot more groundouts the last couple of seasons than previously in his career, but he's not a ground ball pitcher. This season his ratio has more flyouts than groundouts and last year was just a tad more groundouts than flyouts. He's basically 50% ratio the last couple seasons combined..... but far from being considered a groundball pitcher. Think he was like 1.1 to 1 last season and that was the only time in his career he ever had more groundouts than flyouts.

I see you're on the Under as well...gl to us

 

[THUNDER]

I HAVE DIFF NUMBERS

I HAVE DIFF NUMBERS

Between 2007 and 2008, Cliff Lee reinvented himself. He transformed from a fly-ball pitcher into a ground-ball pitcher. We?re not talking about a slight difference, here, either. Lee went from one extreme to the other.

Through his first six seasons, Lee?s flyball rates were: 45%, 44%, 45%, 44%, 48%, 50%. In 2008 and 2009? 35% and 36%. Staggering.

Naturally, his groundball rates have moved the opposite way, from an average of 35% from 2002-07 to 46% in 2008 and 43.2% in 2009.

As a result of the massive decrease in fly balls, Lee has stopped allowing homers. In his magnificent 2008 season, he allowed 12 in 223.1 innings, for a league-leading 0.5 per 9 innings. This was completely a result of the flyball-groundball transformation, not because Lee stopped pounding the strike zone. In 2008, he also led the league in BB/9, allowing only 1.4.

This season, Lee was punished in his first two starts, then went right back to being the guy he was in 2008.

Since those first two outings, his numbers look like this: 151 IP, 152 hits, 30 walks, 103 strikeouts, 9 HR allowed, 4 complete games, 2.56 ERA.

A hit per inning ain?t bad. In fact, it?s very good. One walk every five innings shows that his command is still remarkable. Few hits, few walks, few baserunners. And to top things off, the homers are still low, showing that 2008 was no fluke, he has sustained almost all of his effectiveness.

This is why Cliff Lee can and should be mentioned in the same breath as Roy Halladay. This is why he is an elite pitcher, and will reach new levels of success in the pitcher-friendly National League. He wasn?t a ?one-year wonder? and he is not a guy with an unsustainable past.

Lee doesn?t have an overpowering fastball, but he spots it well. He creates his own pace by working fast, he hides the ball, paints corners, and all five of his pitches have great movement. Not only does he have all the components of an ace, but by reinventing himself twice during his career (once with control, once with GB/FB ratio), Cliff Lee has shown that he is one of the most intelligent pitchers of the last decade.

This is the kind of guy you want on the mound in October. A guy who has seen the peaks and valleys of major league baseball, fought himself and overcome. A guy who knows how to get you out in a variety of ways because he has HAD to throughout his career. A guy who has the smarts and willpower to pinpoint his weaknesses and make them strengths.

A self-made Cy Young.

 

[ndnfan]

Between 2007 and 2008, Cliff Lee reinvented himself. He transformed from a fly-ball pitcher into a ground-ball pitcher. We?re not talking about a slight difference, here, either. Lee went from one extreme to the other.

Through his first six seasons, Lee?s flyball rates were: 45%, 44%, 45%, 44%, 48%, 50%. In 2008 and 2009? 35% and 36%. Staggering.

Naturally, his groundball rates have moved the opposite way, from an average of 35% from 2002-07 to 46% in 2008 and 43.2% in 2009.

As a result of the massive decrease in fly balls, Lee has stopped allowing homers. In his magnificent 2008 season, he allowed 12 in 223.1 innings, for a league-leading 0.5 per 9 innings. This was completely a result of the flyball-groundball transformation, not because Lee stopped pounding the strike zone. In 2008, he also led the league in BB/9, allowing only 1.4.

Don't worry about it Thunder...geez we're on the same side bud.....I think you just said what I said in the previous post to this one....yes he has gotten more ground outs the last couple years, but he's neither a groundball pitcher/nor fly ball he's like 50/50. My take on a groundballer is one who get substantially more groundouts than flyouts. Not sure why all this back and forth...just a game...just throwing my thoughts and numbers out there....gl man.

 

[ninosaturnino]

Don't worry about it Thunder...geez we're on the same side bud.....I think you just said what I said in the previous post to this one....yes he has gotten more ground outs the last couple years, but he's neither a groundball pitcher/nor fly ball he's like 50/50. My take on a groundballer is one who get substantially more groundouts than flyouts. Not sure why all this back and forth...just a game...just throwing my thoughts and numbers out there....gl man.

same side guys! :toast: