Flying under the radar
Somewhat overshadowed by the Sixers' emergence as an NBA power, the Flyers' playoff series with the Penguins and the latest mock draft, the Phillies have roared out to a 14-7 start and are just a half-game off the lead in the National League East. We'll take a look at some of the top story lines that have developed with the budding ballclub in the first three weeks of the season.
Depth is a good thing
There was plenty of curiosity on how the Phillies' nightly lineup would look. In Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr and Odubel Herrera they had four potential every-day outfielders. Add in Scott Kingery, who has started games at third, second, short, left and right and every night there's multiple players sitting that have been or project as everyday players. While it means some players are disappointed to not see their name in the lineup every day, that doesn't mean depth isn't a good thing. The Phillies can double-switch without a drop-off, give a player a day and still have a productive player in the spot and are in good position to overcome any potential injuries.
Nick Pivetta is the No. 3 starter. ... and the key to the season
Pivetta is the No. 3 starter the Phillies need. They already knew what they had in Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta, but the rest of the rotation was a question mark. Pivetta - who the Phillies stole from the Nationals for surly closer Jonathan Papelbon - has earned raves for swing-and-miss stuff that didn't always translate to results. A 2.57 ERA in five starts with 28 strikeouts in 28 innings has established Pivetta as a strong No. 3. If the Phillies can run a pitcher out there three out of every five days with a good chance to be dominant, they'll be in the playoffs.
Cesar Hernandez is under-rated
Everyone is waiting for the Phillies to deal Carlos Hernandez so Scott Kingery can move into the second base role and stay there for the next 10 years. And that might happen. But before it does - or if it does - realize that Cesar Hernandez is an under-rated, very good player. The Phillies' leadoff hitter is batting. 280, is tied for the team lead with 15 runs and has developed more patience at the plate, walking 17 times. He even has five stolen bases, finally starting to take more advantage of his speed.
The good outweighs the bad with Herrera
Odubel Herrera had one of his frustrating moments in Atlanta last week. He coasted into second base, not realizing a throw was coming in and was tagged out because he didn't slide. Later in the game, he didn't charge in to catch a ball that turned into a sacrifice fly when Aaron Altherr came across to cut it off. It's part of the package with Herrera, but the good far outweighs the bad. His defense - especially with converted infielders Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery on either side of him some nights - is critical and his .329 average leads the team.
Kapler's comeback
It was a bad first week for new manager Gabe Kapler, which raised eyebrows around the game. Shifts that backfired, a pitcher called into the game that wasn't warmed up and questionable pitching decisions were part of a 1-4 start. But as the season has gone on, Kapler has made adjustments and the Phillies have stabilized. Some defensive alignments have led to key outs and other unconventional decisions - like using a closer in tie games on the road - have bought the Phillies time to win in extra innings. It's still early and there are certain to be plenty of debatable decisions, but it's been a couple good bounce back weeks for the manager.
This is going to work out just fine
Jake Arrieta eased into the season after signing a three-year free-agent contract midway through spring training, but Thursday was a wow moment for the former Cy Young Award winner. Arrieta pitched seven innings of one-hit ball, striking out 10 with a heavy, unhittable sinker. If Arrieta can come close to that type of performance on most nights, he'll be well worth the three-year, $75-million contract he signed. He has already made an impact as a veteran presence on a young staff.
Homefield advantage
Citizens Bank Park has become a tough place to play again. The stadium isn't playing to sellout crowds every night the way it did nearly 10 years ago, but the Phillies are 9-1 at home this season and clearly have made CBP a home-field advantage.
The Phillies need to improve against the National League East
Division games are going to make or break this season for the Phillies. They have yet to play the Nationals, who feature noted Phillie-killer Bryce Harper, but are only 2-4 against the Braves, 0-2 against the Mets and 2-1 versus the woebegone Marlins. The Phillies are going to need to play well against the Nationals, Braves and Mets to finish in the top three in the division and be in contention for a playoff spot.
Rhys Hoskins is a monster
Were the last two months of 2017 a fluke or a glimpse of a tremendous future? It appears the latter is the case with Hoskins, who blasted 18 homers a year ago despite not being called up until August. Hoskins is a perennial all-star. Versatility, plate discipline ... Hoskins is the poster boy for the new Phillies era. So far he is hitting .323 with team highs of four home runs and 19 RBIs.
The new Big 3
Aaron Nola is Cole Hamels. Rhys Hoskins is Ryan Howard. Scott Kingery is Chase Utley. That may be an oversimplification, but the three homegrown players fit into the roles their predecessors did - ace, power hitter and gritty pure hitter. They may or may not go on to have the tremendous career success of Hamels, Howard and Ultey, but Nola, Hoskins and Kingery are going to be the foundation for the Phillies' next championship team.
The jury is still out on Velasquez
Four starts aren't going to give an indication of whether Vince Velasquez is going to be a quality starter, eventually be moved to the bullpen or traded. He was rocked in his first outing against Atlanta, but to his credit the right-hander has pitched at least six innings in three straight starts, allowing just five runs. It's an encouraging run of outings, but the next few months are still going to dictate the path of Velasquez's career. Still, as a fourth or fifth starter, Velasquez has a lot of potential.
The starting 5 give the Phillies a chance to win every night
A good rotation doesn't guarantee a World Series title. The 2011 Phillies can tell you that. But it does give you a chance to win every night. Here's an exercise. Look at the pitching matchups on a given night. Regardless of the rest of the team, if a starting pitching matchup favors one side, there's a good chance that team will prevail. The Phillies are sending a pitcher out every day that gives them a chance to win and that quality in the staff can't be underestimated.
Help is on the way
With all the Phillies' success, it's easy to forget that four pitchers started the year on the disabled list. Relievers Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek and Mark Leiter Jr. and starter Jerad Eickhoff all began 2018 on the shelf. Hunter was the first one to make it back on Sunday and as the others trickle back to the team it should make a strong staff that much better.
The offense can be much better
So in a 14-7 start, what hasn't gone well? A good portion of the offense. Carlos Santana is still drawing walks, but the veteran first baseman is hitting just .151. Aaron Altherr has any many big hits has any player on the team, but he is batting .157 and rookie shortstop J.P. Crawford can be over-matched at times, especially against lefties. He's batting .185 - one point under starting catcher Jorge Alfaro. An offense with four regulars hitting under .200 has a lot of room for improvement.
The Phillies are legitimate contenders
The Phillies are contenders. No question about it. Their pitching staff alone makes them a threat to claim one of the National League's five playoff spots. The offense can be much better and this is an organization that is preparing to make a big move at the trade deadline if it is in contention. Assuming the Phillies don't collapse in the next two months, there will be a mandate from management to make the moves to put the Phillies over the top. Even without a move, this is a team that is projecting to win 85-90 games - and that puts them right in the postseason discussion.
Somewhat overshadowed by the Sixers' emergence as an NBA power, the Flyers' playoff series with the Penguins and the latest mock draft, the Phillies have roared out to a 14-7 start and are just a half-game off the lead in the National League East. We'll take a look at some of the top story lines that have developed with the budding ballclub in the first three weeks of the season.
Depth is a good thing
There was plenty of curiosity on how the Phillies' nightly lineup would look. In Rhys Hoskins, Nick Williams, Aaron Altherr and Odubel Herrera they had four potential every-day outfielders. Add in Scott Kingery, who has started games at third, second, short, left and right and every night there's multiple players sitting that have been or project as everyday players. While it means some players are disappointed to not see their name in the lineup every day, that doesn't mean depth isn't a good thing. The Phillies can double-switch without a drop-off, give a player a day and still have a productive player in the spot and are in good position to overcome any potential injuries.
Nick Pivetta is the No. 3 starter. ... and the key to the season
Pivetta is the No. 3 starter the Phillies need. They already knew what they had in Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta, but the rest of the rotation was a question mark. Pivetta - who the Phillies stole from the Nationals for surly closer Jonathan Papelbon - has earned raves for swing-and-miss stuff that didn't always translate to results. A 2.57 ERA in five starts with 28 strikeouts in 28 innings has established Pivetta as a strong No. 3. If the Phillies can run a pitcher out there three out of every five days with a good chance to be dominant, they'll be in the playoffs.
Cesar Hernandez is under-rated
Everyone is waiting for the Phillies to deal Carlos Hernandez so Scott Kingery can move into the second base role and stay there for the next 10 years. And that might happen. But before it does - or if it does - realize that Cesar Hernandez is an under-rated, very good player. The Phillies' leadoff hitter is batting. 280, is tied for the team lead with 15 runs and has developed more patience at the plate, walking 17 times. He even has five stolen bases, finally starting to take more advantage of his speed.
The good outweighs the bad with Herrera
Odubel Herrera had one of his frustrating moments in Atlanta last week. He coasted into second base, not realizing a throw was coming in and was tagged out because he didn't slide. Later in the game, he didn't charge in to catch a ball that turned into a sacrifice fly when Aaron Altherr came across to cut it off. It's part of the package with Herrera, but the good far outweighs the bad. His defense - especially with converted infielders Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery on either side of him some nights - is critical and his .329 average leads the team.
Kapler's comeback
It was a bad first week for new manager Gabe Kapler, which raised eyebrows around the game. Shifts that backfired, a pitcher called into the game that wasn't warmed up and questionable pitching decisions were part of a 1-4 start. But as the season has gone on, Kapler has made adjustments and the Phillies have stabilized. Some defensive alignments have led to key outs and other unconventional decisions - like using a closer in tie games on the road - have bought the Phillies time to win in extra innings. It's still early and there are certain to be plenty of debatable decisions, but it's been a couple good bounce back weeks for the manager.
This is going to work out just fine
Jake Arrieta eased into the season after signing a three-year free-agent contract midway through spring training, but Thursday was a wow moment for the former Cy Young Award winner. Arrieta pitched seven innings of one-hit ball, striking out 10 with a heavy, unhittable sinker. If Arrieta can come close to that type of performance on most nights, he'll be well worth the three-year, $75-million contract he signed. He has already made an impact as a veteran presence on a young staff.
Homefield advantage
Citizens Bank Park has become a tough place to play again. The stadium isn't playing to sellout crowds every night the way it did nearly 10 years ago, but the Phillies are 9-1 at home this season and clearly have made CBP a home-field advantage.
The Phillies need to improve against the National League East
Division games are going to make or break this season for the Phillies. They have yet to play the Nationals, who feature noted Phillie-killer Bryce Harper, but are only 2-4 against the Braves, 0-2 against the Mets and 2-1 versus the woebegone Marlins. The Phillies are going to need to play well against the Nationals, Braves and Mets to finish in the top three in the division and be in contention for a playoff spot.
Rhys Hoskins is a monster
Were the last two months of 2017 a fluke or a glimpse of a tremendous future? It appears the latter is the case with Hoskins, who blasted 18 homers a year ago despite not being called up until August. Hoskins is a perennial all-star. Versatility, plate discipline ... Hoskins is the poster boy for the new Phillies era. So far he is hitting .323 with team highs of four home runs and 19 RBIs.
The new Big 3
Aaron Nola is Cole Hamels. Rhys Hoskins is Ryan Howard. Scott Kingery is Chase Utley. That may be an oversimplification, but the three homegrown players fit into the roles their predecessors did - ace, power hitter and gritty pure hitter. They may or may not go on to have the tremendous career success of Hamels, Howard and Ultey, but Nola, Hoskins and Kingery are going to be the foundation for the Phillies' next championship team.
The jury is still out on Velasquez
Four starts aren't going to give an indication of whether Vince Velasquez is going to be a quality starter, eventually be moved to the bullpen or traded. He was rocked in his first outing against Atlanta, but to his credit the right-hander has pitched at least six innings in three straight starts, allowing just five runs. It's an encouraging run of outings, but the next few months are still going to dictate the path of Velasquez's career. Still, as a fourth or fifth starter, Velasquez has a lot of potential.
The starting 5 give the Phillies a chance to win every night
A good rotation doesn't guarantee a World Series title. The 2011 Phillies can tell you that. But it does give you a chance to win every night. Here's an exercise. Look at the pitching matchups on a given night. Regardless of the rest of the team, if a starting pitching matchup favors one side, there's a good chance that team will prevail. The Phillies are sending a pitcher out every day that gives them a chance to win and that quality in the staff can't be underestimated.
Help is on the way
With all the Phillies' success, it's easy to forget that four pitchers started the year on the disabled list. Relievers Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek and Mark Leiter Jr. and starter Jerad Eickhoff all began 2018 on the shelf. Hunter was the first one to make it back on Sunday and as the others trickle back to the team it should make a strong staff that much better.
The offense can be much better
So in a 14-7 start, what hasn't gone well? A good portion of the offense. Carlos Santana is still drawing walks, but the veteran first baseman is hitting just .151. Aaron Altherr has any many big hits has any player on the team, but he is batting .157 and rookie shortstop J.P. Crawford can be over-matched at times, especially against lefties. He's batting .185 - one point under starting catcher Jorge Alfaro. An offense with four regulars hitting under .200 has a lot of room for improvement.
The Phillies are legitimate contenders
The Phillies are contenders. No question about it. Their pitching staff alone makes them a threat to claim one of the National League's five playoff spots. The offense can be much better and this is an organization that is preparing to make a big move at the trade deadline if it is in contention. Assuming the Phillies don't collapse in the next two months, there will be a mandate from management to make the moves to put the Phillies over the top. Even without a move, this is a team that is projecting to win 85-90 games - and that puts them right in the postseason discussion.
