thoughts & plays for semi-final week

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AR182

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went 1-2 on 3 small teasers last week but hit my big bet on minn....which put me in the plus for the first week of playoffs.

like everybody else, i wander to the different forums to get a read on who everybody is betting....it seems like the majority are on the dogs.....i haven't finalized my plays yet...but have done alot of reading on the games.....this is what i have learned......

teams that have won straight up as a dog in a playoff game are 13-29 ats (30.9%) on the road the next week when not getting at least 10 points.

teams that win a playoff game while scoring less than 21 points are 14-26-1 ats (35%) in their next game (excluding the superbowl), including 9-22 ats (29%) if not a dog of 10 points or more.

teams that were 10-6 or worse during the regular season are 22-42-2 ats (34%) on the road from this round on......& 15-34-1 ats (30.6%) when not getting 10 points or more.

playoff home teams coming off a loss are 33-15-1 ats ( 68.7%), including 26-8-1 ats ( 76%) for teams with a win % of .625 or better that are not favored by more than 8 points.

teams that are coming off a game in which they scored more than 35 points & covered the spread are 7-25-1 ats ( 21.8%) in playoff road games....& 5-23-1 ats ( 17.8%) if not getting 10 points or more.
 
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bombercoops

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Nice homework AR. Pretty hard to bet against some of these trends. Gl with whoever you decide to take.
 
c20916

c20916

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I usually put a little stock in the trends, but this year is a strange year and seems to be bucking all the trends, ie last week the home teams usually covered ATS, and 3 lost outright.

interesting stats but I have been a little leary of these lately
 
Irish

Irish

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thanks for the info, better luck this weekend.

Cheers
Irish
 
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AR182

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what am i missing ?

what am i missing ?

thanks for the well wishes. guys.

i see alot of respected cappers on the jets & on the jets moneyline.i can almost see taking the jets + the points but really think pitts. wins on saturday.

lets look at the matchup.......

the jets & the steelers have played 6 common opponents this year.the jets were 5-4 su & 4-4-1 ats against them with the average score of 18-16.while the jets had a slight yardage advantage ( 321-299) over those opponents, they allowed an average of 207 yds. per game,a 60% completion average & a 14-4 td/ int. ratio, & only sacked the qb's of those opponents a total of 2x.

against those same opponents, pitts.was 8-1 su/ats with an average score of 23-15. they had a 324-251 yardage edge & yielded an average of 177 passing yardage, with 53% completion average, a 7-14 td/int. ratio & had 23 total sacks vs. these teams.

looking at this game, the jets are playing their 3rd road game in a row.they played at st. louis in a playoff type of game that went close to 12 minutes into ot.after flying back home to new jersey they had to turn around after a short work week & flew into san diego where they played again into 14:55 minutes of ot.they flew home early sunday morning & now must play again this week on saturday vs. one of the most physical teams in the league. am i the onlt person who thinks that there is a possibilty of the jets coming out flat ?

many people are looking at their previous matchup where the game was tied 3-3 into the 4th quarter when the steelers pulled it out at the end. i maintain the pitts. came into that game flat...after playing an overtime game the week before vs. a physical jacksonville team.

as i previously mentioned i think the jets will come out flat......teams off of a ot playoff win are 3-10 & 4-8-1 ats the next game.

here is something interesting that i read.......

since 1984 there have been 28 playoff teams who entered a game playing their 3rd consecutive road game...their record is 3-25 su & 6-22 ats, including 0-6 su/ats when facing .800 > opposition.

so my question is...what am i missing in this game ?

a small teaser....

pitts.+1
phil.+1.5.....think minn. will also come in flat.
indy.+12....too many n.e. injuries

good luck.
 
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Franky Wright

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Heaven, oh!!, this isn't it?!
Good stuff AR!
Im with you on Pit :clap: Really think the JJJets have "shot their wad"
Of all the chances this weekend of a blowout, this would be the best one, so Teaser players beware :scared

This teaser looks good. I agree with both the first two sides, and the Last matchup is a toss up, so there ya go! :)

GL
Franky :)
 
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AR182

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blackman,

thanks...good luck to you also.

i agree a very big game for mcnabb......he has to answer the question of whether owens makes him the better qb.
 
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