Thoughts?

[America's Team]

San Fran-Atl - Everyone saw San Fran run roughshod over public darling Green Bay and Atlanta almost blow the game against a depleted Sattle team. I think the books want as much San Fran money as possible. The reality is Atlanta played well against a good D last week and Seattle was one of the hottest teams coming into the playoffs. San Fran played a horrible D and made them look so. The interesting thing is GBay scored some on this Niners D and you can say that Atlanta has a similar offense (good WR, not so good RB) and a far better TE. I tend to go contrarian and the public is 58% on San Fran even with the hook. I am leaning Atlanta +3.5 and hoping for a close game if they do not win outright.

Balty-NE - the late game on sunday where everyone tries to bail out for the week. I watched both games last week and saw Denver completely mismanage their game on more than one occasion. That is not taking anything away from Balty who refused to give up but I do not see the hoodie mismanaging anything. I certainly do not see him allowing Brady to kneel down for over time with three TO in his pocket and 33 seconds left. In the other game i saw NE completely outmatch Houston. So I expected a line of maybe 4-6 but to open at 9.5? Really? It seemed to me that they wanted Baltimore money badly and they have gotten it to the tune of 71% while the line sits at 9. To me this comes down to whether or not NE defense is suddenly as good as it looked last week. Based on the opening line and the early money, Vegas sure seems to think so? It is so hard to go against Bisket but the numbers seem to be begging you to take Balty in the final game of the week...I'll take NE - 9.

Totals - All games in first round go under all in the second round go over. Hmmm...Atl-San Fran ends 24-21 one way or the other for the under. Ne-Balty ends 31-17 as the Hoodie plays the hurry up with 2 minutes left and the lead just to screw the Balty bettors with a late TD for the cover while keeping the game under.

Thoughts? This is just my initial take, lol.

opcorn2

 

[UGA12]

Bad news......... This is the way I see it as well:sadwave:

 

[shbtopdog]

I agree with most of what you say and like your analysis
I'm a bit concerned about Atlanta should they get behind early. Huge coaching edge to SF.
But everyone saw SF roll and ATL struggle to close out Seattle
The NFL is usually what you see one week, total opposite the next, even when unthinkable.
The under seems like the right play as well in that game but Kaepernick has proven that he is a scoring threat on every play, and if ATL does get behind I think they will air it out to there big play receivers , that's where they have a solid edge in the game anyway, against the SF secondary which GB moved the ball on pretty easily. For now I think I'll pass on the total
I posted in another thread SF hasn't won 3 games in a row all year and has had several opportunities to do so in much easier spots than this, I'm not sure why but if you look at their scores and schedule it's definitely a weird trend
Win 2 lose 1 all year except for the freak tie against St. Louis.
I also think NE prevails in a slugfest much lower scoring than expected, maybe 27-10 or so .
Hoody won't be denied this year, not Sunday and probably not SB Sunday.
I hope your right on ATL, NE and NE Under
Good luck with whatever you decide

 

[America's Team]

Thanks!

Thanks!

Thank you both. Interesting stat on never winning three in a row for SF. I am concerned about the running QB and Atl failures against similar QB. But what is getting no talk at all is the fact that Kap, who I like alot is a rookie QB starting on the road in an NFC champ game. Ryan is a vet, Gonzalez, roddy, etc...I hate games like this because i can see the niners running all over them yet i keep coming back to Vegas not setting up the public for big wins but for surprise losses and when i see 3.5 i can easily see a 3 point game either way.

If ti wasn't for Bisket being on the ML for Balty I would feel much better about NE, lol. But man this sure set up for a 6 point spread yet it opened at 9.5??? Is that not BEGGING for Balty money, which they have received at a 71% clip so far?

Thanks again guys. Appreciate the input.

:0074

 

[elmer fudd]

simply said, it will be sf and ne in the bowl:0008

 

[cash]

simply said, it will be sf and ne in the bowl:0008

And a great game it will be!!!

 

[yanno]

If ti wasn't for Bisket being on the ML for Balty I would feel much better about NE, lol. :0074

If it wasn't for Bisket saying it is a LOCK on the ML for Balty, I would feel much better about Balty. :mj07:

But the truth is that no stupid LOCK prediction on the internet will affect the game one way or the other. Just call the game yourself. I'm sure Brady and Bellichick will!! :0002

 

[America's Team]

yanno

yanno

I hear ya, i still call for NE despite it, no? lol. I just don't like being on the other side of him is all.

Thanks.

:SIB