BEGINNING THURSDAY MAY 5
Houston at Atlanta (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The NL East is shaping up as an epic struggle in 2005, and from the looks of things, the Braves will be right in the thick of it once again. They?ve been getting great work from the pitching staff (2.97 team ERA) with Mike Hampton (+$315, 1.67 ERA in 5 starts) the standout. The Astros are pitching well, but their offense has been invisible, particularly vs. lefties (2-5, -$360 with only 2.7 runs per game). To make things worse, they are a pitiful 1-10 (-$985) in road games thus far. We may find several spots where we can use Atlanta, but their ace southpaw is a definite play. BEST BET: Hampton.
San Diego at St. Louis (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Padres came into the season with high hopes and they?ve gotten some solid pitching (3.78 ERA), but the results so far haven?t measured up to expectations. The Cardinals are surging ahead in the NL Central, and their offense is ideally suited to beat up on San Diego?s all-righty rotation (Cards 12-6, +$395 vs. righties). Jake Peavy (1.77 ERA) is not expected to take a turn here, but stay away if by chance he gets a start. But with that 4-10 (-$725) road record, the rest of visitors hurlers are fair game. The home team should take at least 3 out of 4. BEST BET: Cardinals unless opposed by Peavy.
Pittsburgh at Arizona (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The D?Backs helped themselves in the off season, and the results have been very satisfactory thus far, especially at Bank One Ballpark (9-3, +$635). Four of their five starters have ERA?s in the low to mid 3.00?s, and the other, Javier Vazquez has looked much better in recent outings (2.12 ERA last two). The Pirates are in sorry shape (.228 team BA, 4.76 ERA, at or near the bottom in both departments), and their most effective hurler, Mark Redman (2.78 ERA) isn?t likely to see action. If the prices stay in line, we?ll back the hot home team throughout. BEST BET: Diamondbacks at -150 or less.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 6
Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Phillies (11-14, -$440) have not been getting the kind of pitching they?ll need in order to stay competitive in the NL East (4.98 team ERA, 3rd worst in the league). The Cubs have been hitting well (.280 team BA, 3rd best in the NL) but they?ve been inconsistent, so caution is advised, considering the high prices we expect to see posted. The exception is Mark Prior (+$200, 3.75 ERA) who is flashing his best form since 2003 and who is slated to take his next turn at Wrigley this weekend. BEST BET: Prior.
L.A. Dodgers at Cincinnati (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Dodgers have cooled off a bit, but the Reds have been slumping as well (only 2-8, -$610 last 10 days) and their pitching is next to last in the NL (5.43 ERA). They?ve had success against lefthanders, but LA?s only starting southpaw, Odalis Perez, is going to miss this series, and the Reds are only 5-12 (-$660) vs. righthanders so far. Brad Penny (3.27 ERA) and Derek Lowe (1.96) are both going to pitch and will provide excellent value. We also like the Dodgers against any lefthander (6-1, +$465 with 7.3 runs per game vs. southpaws so far). BEST BET: Lowe/Penny/Dodgers vs. lefthanders.
Colorado at Florida (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
We had a hunch going into the season that the Rockies were the worst team in baseball, and and after watching them stumble through a 6-15 (-$765) month of April it looks like we were right on the mark. Their ERA is an atrocious 6.37, bad even by Coors field standards, and they?re only 1-10 on the road (-$830). But prices will be so high when they square off this phenomenal pitching staff (2.254 ERA) that we?re forced to pass. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Mets at Milwaukee (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mets have been very streaky thus far, and for all the buzz surrounding this team their statistics aren?t very encouraging (4.40 ERA, .269 team BA). Add in their dismal (4-9, -$500) road record and it?s hard to see a way to back this team, even when facing a lackluster Brewers team here at Miller Park. Milwaukee has a pair of quality righthanders, but Sheets (3.95) is on the DL and Santos (3.12) isn?t expected to see action. Under the circumstances, we?re forced to stay on the sidelines for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Washington at San Francisco (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
Having a true hometown has worked wonders on this team of refugees from Canada, but they?ll have their hands full here at SBC Park over the weekend. The Giants are 5-1 in day games at home so far (+$350, with 6.7 runs per game) and the schedule calls for day games Saturday and Sunday. We?ll avoid John Patterson, who has been outstanding in his first five starts (1.60 ERA), but the rest of the visitor?s rotation looks very beatable right now. BEST BET: Giants in day games unless opposed by Patterson.
Seattle at Boston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mariners have performed well as visitors thus far (8-6, +$310) and for all the problems they had in 2004, they still managed to post a modest profit against this team. Their pitching has been very good (3.87 ERA, 5th best in the AL) while the Red Sox rotation is in shambles, with Schilling and Wells joining Wade Miller on the DL. Jaime Moyer (3.53 ERA) will start this weekend in Fenway and should fare well given Boston?s ongoing difficulty dealing with lefthanders (only 3-4, -$180 so far . . . -$990 in 2004). BEST BET: Moyer.
Oakland at N.Y. Yankees (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Yankees return to the Bronx hoping to erase the memory of their recent brutal homestand. Their pitching has been horrible (4.83 team ERA) and they?ve not been hitting well in key situations. They?ve been a disaster against righthanders (6-12, -$1505 so far) and we?ll be able to catch some nice prices on some quality visiting hurlers. Joe Blanton (2.67 ERA) and Rich Harden (2.10) are easing the loss of Hudson and Mulder, and both are slated to take a turn this weekend. BEST BET: Blanton/Harden.
Chicago W. Sox at Toronto (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The White Sox have simply dominated righthanders this season (14-4, +$995, something they did effectively all last year (+$1725). But they struggled vs. lefties in 2004 (-$2030) and for all their success they are only 4-3 in that situation so far. Gustavo Chacin has been sensational in his first five starts (+$385, 2.48 ERA). We?ll use him, but will stick with the home team vs. righties, except when Roy Halladay (+$460, 3.40) is on the mound. BEST BET: Chacin/White Sox vs. all righthanders except Halladay.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
After posting a franchise record 70 wins in 2004, the Devil Rays appear to have taken a giant step backwards (8-17, -$480). Their pitching is by far the AL?s worst (6.21 ERA), 2.61 runs per game more than the visiting Twins (3.62). Previously unbeaten Johan Santana (+$335, 3.29 ERA) lost a tough one vs. the Angels last Sunday, and he?ll look to bounce back here at Tropicana Field. Chances are good he will since Tampa Bay averages just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefthanders. BEST BET: Santana.
Kansas City at Baltimore (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles have jumped to an unexpected lead in the AL East with the second best record in the AL (17-7, +$1110), thanks to some quality starters and the league?s most imposing attack (.304 team BA with 6.0 runs per game). The Royals took 2 out of 3 from the Indians last weekend to snap an horrendous losing streak. But they?re simply too atrocious to use (5.08 ERA, .238 BA), and prices on the home favorite will be prohibitive. BEST BET: None.
Cleveland at Texas (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rangers opened lots of eyes when they played competitively in 2004, but the lack of pitching depth that plagued them for so many years seems to have re-emerged (5.13 ERA), making them far less imposing at Arlington Stadium (-$430). The indians have stumbled a bit offensively (.225 BA, worst in the AL), but they?ve got some pitchers we like, including Cliff Lee, who has led this team to wins in all three of his starts on the road (2.61 ERA). Texas has averaged a paltry 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties so far. BEST BET: Lee.
Detroit at L.A. Angels (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Angels came up big vs. Johan Santana, to salvage a victory in their series with the Twins at the Metrodome last weekend and maintain their grip on the top slot in the AL West. The Tigers can hit (.277 team BA), but they are only 4-7 (-$280) vs. righthanders on the road, while LA checks in with an 8-2 (+$445) mark vs. righties at home. On the other hand, the Angels have floundered against. southpaws at home (0-3,-$390, with 2.6 runs per game) while Detroit has averaged 7.7 runs per game against them. we?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: White Sox when righty meets righty/ Tigers when lefty meets lefty.
Houston at Atlanta (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The NL East is shaping up as an epic struggle in 2005, and from the looks of things, the Braves will be right in the thick of it once again. They?ve been getting great work from the pitching staff (2.97 team ERA) with Mike Hampton (+$315, 1.67 ERA in 5 starts) the standout. The Astros are pitching well, but their offense has been invisible, particularly vs. lefties (2-5, -$360 with only 2.7 runs per game). To make things worse, they are a pitiful 1-10 (-$985) in road games thus far. We may find several spots where we can use Atlanta, but their ace southpaw is a definite play. BEST BET: Hampton.
San Diego at St. Louis (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The Padres came into the season with high hopes and they?ve gotten some solid pitching (3.78 ERA), but the results so far haven?t measured up to expectations. The Cardinals are surging ahead in the NL Central, and their offense is ideally suited to beat up on San Diego?s all-righty rotation (Cards 12-6, +$395 vs. righties). Jake Peavy (1.77 ERA) is not expected to take a turn here, but stay away if by chance he gets a start. But with that 4-10 (-$725) road record, the rest of visitors hurlers are fair game. The home team should take at least 3 out of 4. BEST BET: Cardinals unless opposed by Peavy.
Pittsburgh at Arizona (4) 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th
The D?Backs helped themselves in the off season, and the results have been very satisfactory thus far, especially at Bank One Ballpark (9-3, +$635). Four of their five starters have ERA?s in the low to mid 3.00?s, and the other, Javier Vazquez has looked much better in recent outings (2.12 ERA last two). The Pirates are in sorry shape (.228 team BA, 4.76 ERA, at or near the bottom in both departments), and their most effective hurler, Mark Redman (2.78 ERA) isn?t likely to see action. If the prices stay in line, we?ll back the hot home team throughout. BEST BET: Diamondbacks at -150 or less.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 6
Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Phillies (11-14, -$440) have not been getting the kind of pitching they?ll need in order to stay competitive in the NL East (4.98 team ERA, 3rd worst in the league). The Cubs have been hitting well (.280 team BA, 3rd best in the NL) but they?ve been inconsistent, so caution is advised, considering the high prices we expect to see posted. The exception is Mark Prior (+$200, 3.75 ERA) who is flashing his best form since 2003 and who is slated to take his next turn at Wrigley this weekend. BEST BET: Prior.
L.A. Dodgers at Cincinnati (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Dodgers have cooled off a bit, but the Reds have been slumping as well (only 2-8, -$610 last 10 days) and their pitching is next to last in the NL (5.43 ERA). They?ve had success against lefthanders, but LA?s only starting southpaw, Odalis Perez, is going to miss this series, and the Reds are only 5-12 (-$660) vs. righthanders so far. Brad Penny (3.27 ERA) and Derek Lowe (1.96) are both going to pitch and will provide excellent value. We also like the Dodgers against any lefthander (6-1, +$465 with 7.3 runs per game vs. southpaws so far). BEST BET: Lowe/Penny/Dodgers vs. lefthanders.
Colorado at Florida (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
We had a hunch going into the season that the Rockies were the worst team in baseball, and and after watching them stumble through a 6-15 (-$765) month of April it looks like we were right on the mark. Their ERA is an atrocious 6.37, bad even by Coors field standards, and they?re only 1-10 on the road (-$830). But prices will be so high when they square off this phenomenal pitching staff (2.254 ERA) that we?re forced to pass. BEST BET: None.
N.Y. Mets at Milwaukee (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mets have been very streaky thus far, and for all the buzz surrounding this team their statistics aren?t very encouraging (4.40 ERA, .269 team BA). Add in their dismal (4-9, -$500) road record and it?s hard to see a way to back this team, even when facing a lackluster Brewers team here at Miller Park. Milwaukee has a pair of quality righthanders, but Sheets (3.95) is on the DL and Santos (3.12) isn?t expected to see action. Under the circumstances, we?re forced to stay on the sidelines for the time being. BEST BET: None.
Washington at San Francisco (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
Having a true hometown has worked wonders on this team of refugees from Canada, but they?ll have their hands full here at SBC Park over the weekend. The Giants are 5-1 in day games at home so far (+$350, with 6.7 runs per game) and the schedule calls for day games Saturday and Sunday. We?ll avoid John Patterson, who has been outstanding in his first five starts (1.60 ERA), but the rest of the visitor?s rotation looks very beatable right now. BEST BET: Giants in day games unless opposed by Patterson.
Seattle at Boston (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Mariners have performed well as visitors thus far (8-6, +$310) and for all the problems they had in 2004, they still managed to post a modest profit against this team. Their pitching has been very good (3.87 ERA, 5th best in the AL) while the Red Sox rotation is in shambles, with Schilling and Wells joining Wade Miller on the DL. Jaime Moyer (3.53 ERA) will start this weekend in Fenway and should fare well given Boston?s ongoing difficulty dealing with lefthanders (only 3-4, -$180 so far . . . -$990 in 2004). BEST BET: Moyer.
Oakland at N.Y. Yankees (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Yankees return to the Bronx hoping to erase the memory of their recent brutal homestand. Their pitching has been horrible (4.83 team ERA) and they?ve not been hitting well in key situations. They?ve been a disaster against righthanders (6-12, -$1505 so far) and we?ll be able to catch some nice prices on some quality visiting hurlers. Joe Blanton (2.67 ERA) and Rich Harden (2.10) are easing the loss of Hudson and Mulder, and both are slated to take a turn this weekend. BEST BET: Blanton/Harden.
Chicago W. Sox at Toronto (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The White Sox have simply dominated righthanders this season (14-4, +$995, something they did effectively all last year (+$1725). But they struggled vs. lefties in 2004 (-$2030) and for all their success they are only 4-3 in that situation so far. Gustavo Chacin has been sensational in his first five starts (+$385, 2.48 ERA). We?ll use him, but will stick with the home team vs. righties, except when Roy Halladay (+$460, 3.40) is on the mound. BEST BET: Chacin/White Sox vs. all righthanders except Halladay.
Minnesota at Tampa Bay (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
After posting a franchise record 70 wins in 2004, the Devil Rays appear to have taken a giant step backwards (8-17, -$480). Their pitching is by far the AL?s worst (6.21 ERA), 2.61 runs per game more than the visiting Twins (3.62). Previously unbeaten Johan Santana (+$335, 3.29 ERA) lost a tough one vs. the Angels last Sunday, and he?ll look to bounce back here at Tropicana Field. Chances are good he will since Tampa Bay averages just 3.5 runs per game vs. lefthanders. BEST BET: Santana.
Kansas City at Baltimore (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Orioles have jumped to an unexpected lead in the AL East with the second best record in the AL (17-7, +$1110), thanks to some quality starters and the league?s most imposing attack (.304 team BA with 6.0 runs per game). The Royals took 2 out of 3 from the Indians last weekend to snap an horrendous losing streak. But they?re simply too atrocious to use (5.08 ERA, .238 BA), and prices on the home favorite will be prohibitive. BEST BET: None.
Cleveland at Texas (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Rangers opened lots of eyes when they played competitively in 2004, but the lack of pitching depth that plagued them for so many years seems to have re-emerged (5.13 ERA), making them far less imposing at Arlington Stadium (-$430). The indians have stumbled a bit offensively (.225 BA, worst in the AL), but they?ve got some pitchers we like, including Cliff Lee, who has led this team to wins in all three of his starts on the road (2.61 ERA). Texas has averaged a paltry 3.5 runs per game vs. lefties so far. BEST BET: Lee.
Detroit at L.A. Angels (3) 6th, 7th, 8th
The Angels came up big vs. Johan Santana, to salvage a victory in their series with the Twins at the Metrodome last weekend and maintain their grip on the top slot in the AL West. The Tigers can hit (.277 team BA), but they are only 4-7 (-$280) vs. righthanders on the road, while LA checks in with an 8-2 (+$445) mark vs. righties at home. On the other hand, the Angels have floundered against. southpaws at home (0-3,-$390, with 2.6 runs per game) while Detroit has averaged 7.7 runs per game against them. we?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: White Sox when righty meets righty/ Tigers when lefty meets lefty.
