Thurs 2 cents

[EXTRAPOLATER]

wed: 5-2 +7.0
total BB posts(past 8 days): 33-22 +19.65

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Marlins(Pavano)@Brewers(Kinney)
-Pavano solid vs Brewers last April 23rd - no decision in a 5-4 win; beauty 8 IP in last vs Angels (W 4-1); 1st @Miller Park; lefties batting .303 vs in career
-Kinney threw 3 hitless innings of relief vs Marlins April 24th; righties hitting only .198 vs in '03
-neither BP impressive - fish lucky to hang on yesterday, almost blowing 5 run lead over last 3 innings
-Brewers 54 points higher (.284 to .230) vs R over past 10
-Brewers amazingly 12 games UNDER .500 at home (11-23); Marlins 13-19 on road
-Brewers .252 vs R, .239 vs L on year
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Marlins: 752, Brewers: 738
PITCH: Marlins: 74, Brewers: 76
Kinney has been fairly solid this year, probably a little better than Pavano. Late scare that the Brewers put on the fish (AND myself!) may provide them a spark coming in here. Tough leftie Willis was main reason for fish win, and I like the Brewers chances better in this one, vs a righty. Call is Brewers 55-45
Price: Brewers +110 (PV +7)
PLAY:
Brewers -+- 1/1.1

Total at 8.5 looks low, though O'Nora does have high strike %, year in, year out. Either starter capable of putting up zeros, also, but pen's should again factor in, so I'm out.

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Astros(Robertson-L)@Yankees(Wells-L)
-Robertson hit hard in last vs D'Rays, after having been better in the previous 4 (1st 6 starts were rough); both sides batting over .300 vs in his, so far (and probably!), short career
-Wells has 3.48 era and 1.12 whip in his career @Yankee Stadium; this will be his 1st vs the current lineup of Astros
-(no misprint here)...'stros .500, Yanks .162 last 10 vs lefties
-Astros 30 points higher, on season, vs L (.292 to .262R)
-Yanks .266 vs R while .257 vs L - Yanks .235 vs L at home
-Astros the better BP (one of MLB's best, as shown), but had major workout yesterday
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Astros: 798, Yanks: 782
PITCH: Astros: 70, Yanks: 81
Great revenge opportunity for Yanks, here, with a huge discrepancy in starters abilities. Robertson is not much, but Wells has had his off moments this year. Yanks currently seem impossible to figure out, while Astros are coming on. Call Yankees 63-37
Price: Yanks -180 (PV -2)
PASS

Yanks SHOULD score, Astros should get theirs, and Layne behind HP helps also, but I can't touch an over 9.5 at Yankee Stadium with 2 lefties going...not with the Yankees bats current slumber party...make that COMA.

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Braves(Reynolds)@A's(Zito-L)
-Braves have won Reynolds past 7 starts, and 9/10 on season; sure didn't fool Pirates last time out (7 H, 6 er in 4 IP); much tougher on lefties this year (.198, 2 HR in 26IP vs .317, 7 HR in 30.1); A's smoked Reynolds in only meeting, last year, @Network Assoc.
-Zito's HR allowed (10 in 88.2) not cause for major concern, but opponents virtually not scoring without them (29 er total - I didn't check each HR, but at least 3 that I know of were 3-run shots); righties have hit 8 of the 10, but over 78% of opponents faced have been R, eliminating any R/L discrepancy here
-Braves .278 past 10 vs L, A's .238 last 10 vs R
-BP's solid, slight edge A's
-ump Marquez does nothing for me (o/u)
-C.Jones d-d w/sore wrist
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Braves: 865, A's: 734
PITCH: Braves: 73, A's: 84
A's are 20-9 at home, and have perhaps their best going today. Call is A's 54-46
Price: A's -165 (PV -9 ... gimme a break!)

Price: Braves +150 (PV +6)
PLAY:
Braves -+- 1/1.5

Total passage on the total, here, as pitching matchup may be better, but clubs combined for 17 runs yesterday in this pitcher's ballpark.

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It kinda makes you fell sad when you're tryin' to find your way
and you don't know which way to go
(Led Zeppelin-When the Levee Breaks)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Cards(Stephenson)@Bosox(Wakefield)
-lefties batting .312 vs Stephenson (R .242); career: L.308, R.240; this year is 3-2 at home w/3.71 era while 0-3 on road w/5.77
-Wakefield's ankle causing him problems lately; 6.10 era vs Cards (while w/Pirates - 4G, 3 starts), though 1 was a CG victory; is 2-1 w/good #'s at Fenway this year
-Cards .325 & Bosox .335, last 10 vs R (.288 & .297 on year)
-Cards just 12-17 on road, Bosox 19-10 @Fenway
-HP Brinkman about as even as they come since zone expanded
-neither BP great, Bosox a little worse
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Cards: 826, Bosox: 858
PITCH: Cards: 71, Bosox: 69
Neither pitcher much threat for a CG. Over 10.5 is tempting, but I'm passing, for now, what with juice required and the Cards bats getting squat against an unimpressive (usually) Burkett. Call is Bosox 57-43
Price: Sox -140 (PV -2)
PASS

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Padres(Peavy)@Indians(jDavis)
-Peavy has been much better @Qualcomm, so far in his short career (5-3, 3.65 vs 5-9, 5.36 away); is developing into a solid starter, but needs seasoning
-Davis has been better lately - 3 straight starts going at least 7IP, and era has dropped in each of his past 5 starts (7.20 on May 9th, now 5.04); Injuns have won his past 5 starts (he went 3-0); lefties .307, righties .257 in '03; #'s better at home this year, save for HR's allowed (understandable @Jacobs)
-SD .297 last 10 (.266 year) vs R
-Indians .261 last 10 (.246 year) vs R
-key Indians bat Burks on disabled list
-neither BP impressive, at all
-HP Hohn's strike% not very high, but he has been a total under ump, this year and last (29-15 overall)
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Padres: 739, Indians: 685
PITCH: Padres: 73, Indians: 69
Probably one to leave alone, but I think Peavy may be a bit better than Eaton, who (virtually) shut down the Indians yesterday, in a 3-2 loss. SD hits a little better vs righties than the (very tough) lefty that they got 10 hits off of yesterday. My call is Padres 56-44
Price: Padres +120 (PV +10)
PLAY:
Padres -+- 1.5/1.8

To me, total (8.5) looks under, if anything, but 2 crappy pens backing up 2 unstable starters, AT Jacobs Field, makes this play tougher.

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Pirates(Suppan)@Jays(Hendrickson-L)
-Suppan may be turning it around after tough May--he started the season w/4 straight W's, team then lost his next 6 starts, and have now won his past 2 (@Cards & vs Bosox); lefties hitting .341, R .221 in '03 (all are .260 at home and .301 vs him away); 2-2 vs Jays in career w/4.89 era, .279 oba, and 12 HR in 58 IP (11 games, 9 of them starts); era a bit higher @Skydome in 6 starts & 1 relief (5.55 - .264 oba, 8 HR in 35.2); injured Stewart has been his biggest Jays foe
-perhaps the Jays should consider a THREE-man rotation , as Hendrickson has reverted back to garbage after a good stretch in May; owns an 8.10 era w/oba .345 at home in '03
-Jays .339 last 10 vs R, Pirates .324 last 10 vs L
-both pens gruesome
-Pirates somehow 16-16 on road, only 9-21 at home
-Jays 16-14 at home, 20-16 away
-HP Iassogna a decent under play, but, judging from what I've seen, including his last in the Clemens/Wood matchup, his K-zone starts gi-normous and then shrinks greatly later in the game
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Pirates: 712, Jays: 852
PITCH: Pirates: 73, Jays: 64
I can't play the Jays here, with Hendricksuck on the hill, Pirates bats smokin' lefties lately, and the hefty price tag. Call is Jays 58-42
Price: Jays -150 (PV -2)
PASS

Total at 11 looks fair. I thought about the over, but I don't like the juice attached, and Danny I. may have gotten the word from the umpire's office about how much the commentators were noticing that his strike zone was inconsistent. If Hendrickson gets some calls, he may survive ... Jays pen is another matter. Suppan has decent stuff, and he must realize, after watching yesterday's game, that his only chance for success is to keep the Jays in the park. Tempting...

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Whether I'm twelve or whether I am sixty-four
gonna spend my time like there ain't gonna be no more
(Montrose-Make It Last)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Dodgers(Ishii-L)@Tigers(Bonderman)
-Ishii's #'s better at Dodger Stadium '03 (3-0,2.36,.179 vs 2-2,4.05,.247away) and career (9-6,3.33,.200 vs 10-6,4.51,.263away); one major trouble for him last year (HR's) has improved (4 in 68.2)
-20 year old rookie Bonderman's few good games on season came vs likes of A's, D'Rays & Indians - not the toughest lineups; 1-4 w/7.22 era @Comerica Park; 2001 1st round selection (by A's) needs time to mature, but he may look good vs poor LA bats
-Dodgers crap (.233) all season vs righties, but even worse at .175 the past 10
-Tigers crap (.226) all season vs lefties, but much better at .313 the past 10
-ump Merriweather had a severe under-year in '01 (under was 27-8), but seems like his zone has shrunk since new zone implemented (26-19 over in '02-'03); strike zone small and hitters know it, so # pitches may be down, and BP's use may be minimal
-both clubs have good pens - Dodgers one of the best
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Dodgers: 637, Tigers: 640
PITCH: Dodgers: 84, Tigers: 72
I'd say Bonderman may be better than either Knotts or Bernero, neither of whom the Dodgers spanked. Ishii is hot, as are most Dodgers pitchers, but Tigers have fared a little better vs lefties lately. 1st 2 in series Tigers have been very competitive, and will probably be again. My #'s still give Dodgers edge, 55-45
Price: Dodgers -200 (PV -12)
DREAM

Price: Tigers +185 (PV +9)
PLAY:
Tigers -+- 1/1.85

These 2 clubs may finally hit the over, here, as this series ends. I don't think Ishii shuts them down - he shut down the Chisox in last, but that was at home (see #'s above) and the Chisox bats have been a joke. Merriweather is the clincher, here, and while I don't often play side&total on a game, I think that this one warrants it ... Dodgers will probably need more than 2 (what they got in Ishii's last) to stay in this one.
PLAY:
over 7 -120
1.2/1


Dang sun?!?!...already?...
Coffeetime

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And you run and you run to catch up with the sun but it's sinking
racing around to come up behind you again
(Pink Floyd-Time)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Cubs(Zambrano)@Orioles(Helling)
-Zambrano better on road '03 (2.41 era, .179 oba) AND career (2.94 road, 4.50 Wrigley)
-last start was the 2nd by Helling (of 12) in which he allowed no HR's (14 on year)--still didn't last 5 @Cards; very good #'s vs Cubs in 18.1 IP (1.96 era, 1.04 whip) during career; several current Cubs bats have hit him hard, including 7 of 8 Cubs starters (1 he's never faced) from yesterday's ballgame!; this guy can be scary, and I generally avoid siding with him
-Cubs .275, O's .310, last 10 vs R
-Sosa serving suspension
-small strike-zone HP Klemm making 1st start calling in '03
-Cubs BP edge, but couldn't tell from last night's close call
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Cubs: 730, O's: 773
PITCH: Cubs: 80, O's: 67
Zambrano should keep the Cubs in this one, especially with the well-travelled Helling going. Call is Cubs 53-47
Price: Cubs -120 (PV -2)
PASS

Total of 9 probably low, especially the way things went last night. I'm saying no at -125 (or 9.5 +110); Zambrano has some good stuff, and Cubs bats might cool off. Might add this later, but Cubs over 5 -105 may be a better option ... they will be assured 27 outs and they are using the DH here. Chillin' for now.

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Reds(Dempster)@D'Rays(Gonzalez)
-Dempster was activated from the DL in time to be smoked by the Jays in his last -- era now 7.96; hasn't even had a half-decent start since April 24th vs LA, where he still allowed 5 H & 6 BB in 6.2 IP; 2-4 vs D'Rays w/5.35 era in 6 career starts; 1-3 w/4.74 era in 4 @Tropicana Field
-Gonzalez pretty sharp in his 5 starts in '03; only criticism is his duration (avg. <6 IP/start); team has lost his last 2 '03 interleague starts, mainly due to lack of run support; baffling righties this year (.169, L are .220); 1-3 w/6.98 era vs Reds, but has min. vs current Reds
-Reds .268, D'Rays .253, last 10 vs R
-pens pretty good - slight edge to D'Rays
-HP G.Davis w/small zone, but the under has prevailed the past couple of seasons
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Reds: 763, D'Rays: 716
PITCH: Reds: 64, D'Rays: 76
I can't touch Dempster here, after watching the batting practice that he was serving up to the Jays in his last. Gonzalez has allowed only 2 HR in his first 29 IP this year (0 vs Rangers @Tropicana, his only start there), so Reds main mode of run-scoring may be quelled, and D'Rays have a good pen which might be able to bring home his short (likely) appearance. Call is D'Rays 60-40
Price: D'Rays +100 (PV +10)
PLAY:
D'Rays -+- 1.5/1.5

Total (10.5) is tough to call here, as Reds seem to either score 8-9 or 2-4, while D'Rays have scored 5 or less in 8 of their last 10, but Dempster may very well go against that trend.

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Everybody's got the dues in life to pay
(Aerosmith-Dream On)

 

[Spock]

nice work bud.

hope ur right about the boston and toronto overs hitting

Spock

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

D'Backs(Patterson)@Royals(kWilson)
-I won't touch Patterson until he shows something (8.53 era thru 1st 19 IP of '03; 5.26 in 49.2 for career, including 11 HRs)
-mostly a reliever in his career, Wilson is allowing opposing batters to hit app. 280 in '03, home & away, but possesses a 6.75 era at home while just 2.50 on the road; he's 6-1 (somehow) with a 5.11 era in 36 games (6 starts) @Kauffman Stadium in his career
-D'Backs .255, Royals .314, last 10 vs R
-Royals' pen started year strong, went to chit, and has come on a bit lately; D'Backs pen was strong, but currently missing closer Mantei and middle relief corps drained by starters ailing
-HP McLelland has typically been an over play the past few years, but this year is 9-4 under, and strike % highest it's been in years
#s crunched:
P.OPS: D'Backs: 748, Royals: 766
PITCH: D'Backs: 67, Royals: 68
I gotta give the Royals the edge to take this series here, after clubs split 1st 2; Royals 57-43
Price: Royals -145 (PV -3 ... why so flippin' high?!?!?!)
PASSOLA

Not exactly a pitcher's duel, here, and over is 12-4-2 in Royals last 18 home games. Under, mind you, is 6-2-1 in D'Backs last 9 overall. My confidence in totals has not been there, lately, and 10.5 seems a little higher than I want to try, especially w/juice. McLelland has called a number of good pitching match-ups this year, and his underage should balance out by year's end, if his previous 4 or 5 seasons is any indication. I might add this one if it comes down to 10, or 10.5 +100. (Like I'll be conscious )

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Rockies(Oliver-L)@Twins(Rogers-L)
-lefties hitting .203, R .310, vs Oliver on season; strangely, his #s are much better @Coors this year (2.87 era, 1.31 whip, vs 6.16, 1.71 on road); he's 5-5 w/4.14 era in 13 games (11 starts) vs Minny (2-2 w/5.82 @Metrodome, in 5 games, 4 of them starts--21.2 IP); couple of current Twins have hit him, but their slg% is very low vs (rarely used Hocking has only HR); HR's down this year (7 in 69.1 IP)
-Rogers was much better in April than in May, started June by being totally done by Seattle (10 H, 7 er in 1.1 IP), but last was a solid 7 inning performance @Padres (no decision, Twins 7-5); 2-0 w/2.60 era, 0.90 whip in 4 starts vs Rocks; 7-4 w/3.72 era all-time @Metrodome; current Rocks very little success vs, including 0 HR in 50+ AB's
-Rocks .311 last 10, .323 year, .277 away vs lefties
-Twins .319 last 10, .270 year, .253 home vs L
-Twins with a huge edge in the pens
-Rockies 8-23 on road, Twins 16-15 at home
-Historically about even, HP Foemming 10-3 under this year
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Rockies: 893, Twins: 760
PITCH: Rocks: 69, Twins: 77
Last few years I have shunned Oliver, but he's been pretty solid this year. Twins bats may get to him, but Rocks Jennings shut down Minny, and the Twins have seen a lefty starter only once in the past 10 (won @SF vs Moss, 6-4). Rogers has been either total garbage or very solid, further complicating things. While Rocks have been had by Rogers before, they've put up 26 runs in their last 3 vs lefty starters (all 3 in past 6 overall). When I first saw the matchup I figured Rogers would be the way to go, even more so as last night unfolded, but the Rocks power vs lefties contributes to my call of a coin-toss (50-50), so I only play if there is a hefty dog ... hello ...
Price: Rockies +155 (PV +10)
PLAY:
Rockies -+- 1/1.55

Over 9.5 was another possibility for me, here, currently w/no juice, but Twins 33-29 under this year, and the Metrodome doesn't seem to be providing for the same offensive #s as in years past.

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Look what they've done to the earth. Look what they've done to our fair sister - ravaged and plundered and ripped her and bit her. Stuck her with knives in the side of the dawn, and tied her with fences, and dragged her down
(The Doors-When the Music's Over)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hey Spock, what's happenin'?

What are you doing up at this ridiculous hour (almost MY bedtime)


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Well I get up at seven, yes, and I go to work at nine
got no time for living, yeah, I'm workin' all the time
(Rush-Working Man)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Mets(Leiter-L)@Rangers(Lewis)
-Leiter working on just 3 days rest (threw just 56 pitches in 2 IP poundage by M's); 1-6 w/4.60 era in 9 (7 starts) vs Rangers (47 IP); current Rangers have hardly seen him (A-Rod, Palmeiro, and Juan-Gon have somehow NEVER faced him)
-Lewis appears hopeless - his 8.08 era and limited duration make him a liability every time out; BB > K's, whip over 2.00, and 10 HR in 59 IP (last one actually one of his BETTER #'s); Rangers somehow 8-5 in his starts (he's 4-4) - club won his 1st 4 (3-0 Lewis), so club is only 4-5 in past 9 (he's 1-4); 8.01 era in 51.2 IP @Arlington
-Mets .250 last 10, .248 both year and road, vs R
-Rangers .225 last 10, .251 year, .298 home, vs L
-neither BP sparkles, slight edge Rangers
-Juan-Gon (knee) did not play yesterday
-last 4 years HP Meals has been a solid under play
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Mets: 715, Rangers: 754
PITCH: Mets: 74, Rangers: 63
Mets have had trouble vs leties this year, but Leiter has not been dominating. Neither starter should go more than 7, if that (course...remember I said that Escobar wouldn't go 7 in his last...and CG SHO was), and BP's nothing special (to say the least). I expected to be able to get Mets as a dog, regardless of Lewis, but I was disappointed. Call is Mets 53-47
Price: Mets -110 (PV even)
PASS

Total of 11 looks low for Lewis vs Mets (or vs Bad News Bears), about right for Leiter vs Rangers (who may do what M's recently did to him), and high for a Jerry Meals game. I must to be passing.

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Giants(Rueter-L)@Chisox(Colon)
-Rueter unspectacular, but getting job done (7-1, club 9-4, 3.42 era, only 4 HR in 79 IP, though 86 total hits allowed); 1st vs Chisox; oba .260 at home, .318 on road
-87-pitch CG 4-1 win @Dodgers in last for Colon; threw 6 innings and got the W in only meeting w/Giants, last season (5 hits, 2er,3BB,3K); current Giants w/minimal success vs, including 0 HR in just under 100 AB's (has never faced Bonds); 3.20 era, 1.19 whip, at home this year
-SF .279 last 10 vs R (.269 yr, .260 road)
-Chisox better vs lefties (than R) this year: .268 last 10, .265 yr, .286 home
-HP Montague not the biggest zone, but under slight edge the past year and a half
-BP's average, edge Giants
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Giants: 774, Chisox: 765
PITCH: Giants: 77, Chisox: 81
Chisox will look to take this series (1-1), and have a decent chance with bully Colon on the hill, especially with Chisox success vs lefties. Call is Chisox 57-43
Price: Chisox -125 (PV +1 ... negligable)
PASS

Giants, who also hit lefties better, beat up on the struggling Buehrle yesterday, but had trouble with Garland the day before. Chisox scored only 4 off of Foppert & comp., and 5 the day before against the unimpressive Williams. over may be 3-1-1 in Rueter's past 5, but under is 8-1 in Colon's last 9. I look for Rueter to keep the Chisox off-balance, especially with key man Ordonez not 100%, and also considering that the club got just 1 hit vs Foppert yesterday in his 7.1 innings of work. Montague probably no help here, but play more enticing w/no juice required.
PLAY:
under 8.5 +100
1/1

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Expos(Vargas)@Mariners(rFranklin)
-25 years old 1 week today, rookie Vargas has been pretty steady in (generally) short outtings this year; club is 4-4 in his starts; 3.38 era goes up to 4.38 on road, where his only 2 losses have come; lefties a problem for him, batting .329 (R .202); may not be so intimidated coming in here, as Expos have held M's to just 4 runs through the first 2 games, stunningly taking both
-Franklin very similar #'s to those of Vargas - has been maybe a little better, lasts slightly longer, but has trouble with the long-ball (14 allowed in 77 IP, including 6 over past 4 games, spanning 26.2 IP); L hitting .293 vs, R .217, in '03; #'s better on road this year (.230 oba, 2.84 era, vs .281, 4.15 at home ... he's 3-1 on the road and 1-3 at home); home/away descrepancy vanishes over his career, but lefties still his toughest outs all-time; has not allowed more than 4 er's in 12 starts this year (10 of 12 have been UNDER 4 runs, including his last 7, or everything since the end of April)
-Expos .224 last 10, .248 year, .244 away, vs R
-M's .278 last 10, .277 year, and .250 home, vs R (another team hitting lefties better, including .413 their past 10)
-key man Guerrero (still) out for Expos
-both pens solid, edge to M's maybe eliminated with closer Sasaki out -- even
-M's only 17-13 at home, while 25-8 on road; Expos 13-5 at home, and 16-15 on road
-HP Welke not much of a factor, but over IS 9-5 on season
#s crunched:
P.OPS: Expos: 711, M's: 788
PITCH: Expos: 75, M's: 77
Gotta like the M's to salvage one in this series. Mostly used as a reliever in his short career (and he's 30), Franky has really been a plus for the M's this year. His record at home, this year, seems anomalous, as does the M's huge home/away record overall. Vargas may get some help from the Expos solid pen, but the loss of Guerrero is going to catch up with this team soon. Call is Mariners 63-37
Price: M's -165 (PV even)
PASS

M's may very well exert their will, offensively, in this one. Total at 8 I can't touch; over would be tempting if Guerrero was in, and if the M's bats weren't in their mini-slump. I still think the M's will snap out of it here, and I may try this one on the runline (currently at +120) if I'm up from the early games.


I can't believe I ate the whole thing!

May Your Freedom Prosper.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ohhh...Give me a good guiter
and you can say that my head's a disgrace
(Queen-Tenement Funster)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Last Call:

Brewers +110 -+- 1/1.1
Braves +150 -+- 1/1.5
Padres +120 -+- 1.5/1.8
Tigers +185 -+- 1/1.85
Dogers@Tigers over 7 -120 -+- 1.2/1
D'Rays +100 -+- 1.5/1.5
Rockies +155 -+- 1/1.55
Giants@Chisox under 8.5 +100 -+- 1/1

Wow...not a single favorite today...that's unlike me.
Only juice is on my over. Good thing I'm not parched.

Better leave before I fall.

Happy Daze!

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Got to be a joker, he just do what he please
(The Beatles-Come Together)

 

[pwine]

Great write ups today, I am in a hurry so I will coattail some of your plays and appreciate all the work you have done

GOOD LUCK

 

[emmitt]

great read bol emmitt

 

[ajoytoy]

gl today bud


great read as always


toy

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

EP.

don't have yer e-mail anymore....

i'll ask jack to send it to me again.

 

[Green Tea]

GL tonight buddy!