The gambling gods smiled on me last night. Went 3-0 on posted plays and 8-2 overall. One loss
was because I mis-read my notes and played NO over when my notes clearly said under. That also cost me a 3 team par.
For the past ten years I have said that if you like the dog in a game with a line of 5 or less you are better off playing the ML. The winner of the game covers over 90% of the time. It seemed to me that this wasn't happening as often this year as in the past so I decided to run the numbers on the teams that played last night. There were 20 teams and I did their last 30 games. I figure this should be a pretty good sample of what's happened so far. The winner of the game has covered the line 121-11 or 91%. No different than years past.
Now for today. The way I see it the line is 2' to 3 too high on the side at NJ. The word I got is that Shak will play but anyway you cut it the line should be no more than 3'.
The Den line is really screwy. I can come up with Ind getting points and I can come up with them giving points. If Martin plays he won't be close to 100%. I doubt if I try to figure this one out. I will be on the under tho.
I come up with Phoe able to give up to 8 which really surprises me. Nash should see limited min tonight and that loss to Bos will probably give Det backers a little more courage. The total at 207 was dead on but I expect the public to run it up a couple of points.
Back with my plays before gametime Good luck whatever you do.
was because I mis-read my notes and played NO over when my notes clearly said under. That also cost me a 3 team par.
For the past ten years I have said that if you like the dog in a game with a line of 5 or less you are better off playing the ML. The winner of the game covers over 90% of the time. It seemed to me that this wasn't happening as often this year as in the past so I decided to run the numbers on the teams that played last night. There were 20 teams and I did their last 30 games. I figure this should be a pretty good sample of what's happened so far. The winner of the game has covered the line 121-11 or 91%. No different than years past.
Now for today. The way I see it the line is 2' to 3 too high on the side at NJ. The word I got is that Shak will play but anyway you cut it the line should be no more than 3'.
The Den line is really screwy. I can come up with Ind getting points and I can come up with them giving points. If Martin plays he won't be close to 100%. I doubt if I try to figure this one out. I will be on the under tho.
I come up with Phoe able to give up to 8 which really surprises me. Nash should see limited min tonight and that loss to Bos will probably give Det backers a little more courage. The total at 207 was dead on but I expect the public to run it up a couple of points.
Back with my plays before gametime Good luck whatever you do.
Made me think a little and just to clarify some things for me anyway.........
