SHAMROCK..pow3 play is pretty simple play...is based solely on a pitcher who has over or under achieved in 3-consecutive starts.
i look at his era and whip over last 3-starts individually...if he has over-achieved in all 3. then i play against him....and if he has under-achieved then i play on him...has proven to work best with your proven mediocre pitchers...have learned to throw out rookies and playing against your studs as they are very cabable of going on long runs of stellar starts...see[kevin brown].....works well when playing on your big stud pitchers who have under-achieved ....
at all-star break went back and did some number crunching...
like i suspected all the plays involving your proven mediocre pitchers went.....120-85...didnt figure out units won, but looked like very nice total...many, dog winners.
going against the top pitchers was a losing proposition....
which i wil no longer do.....1st half results playing against top pitchers was 9-32.....so i lost quite a bit of units here in 1st half.
playing on the big boys when they under-achieved was profitable..
went 15-5 overall in 1st halff.
i threw out all 1st yr. pitchers...just because no-history...how can i say he is over or under achieving....see[d. willis]
so 2nd half looking to be much improved in the pow3 plays....strictly using your proven mediocre pitchers [guys with atleast 2-yrs plus with career era around 4 and a whip around 1.30] your k. benson, a.eaton,k.rogers,b.lawrence etc. you know the type....theres plenty of .500 pitchers out there.....
plus, obviously gonna\use the big stud pitchers when theyve under-achieved....
so far...revised pow 3 in 2nd half has gone 39-24+2000
thats all 1-unit plays to win 100 dollars....as u can see from results won/loss is plus15 games, but unitswon is +2000 so u can see many nice dog-winners hit with this system.
1-thing i hope i provide here is proof [thru pow3 plays and sat/sun trends] that simple common sense ideas will work when handicaping.....i think many cappers make this to complicated.....1-key thing to remember...that i think is very helpful...on any given day...in all the major sports we cap...any team is capable of winning or covering....no matter how bad the team....talent at this level is pretty similar....all these guys are temendous athletes....figuring out when a team will over or under achieve is the key..
gluck hope this helps....steel.
