Cincy +3 1/2
I was impressed with Oregon State last week. Loved their dedication to running it with Bernard. Loved the way their OL played. And loved the defense that knocked the Utes around, banging up and taking out their QB and RB.
That said, I like the Bearcats here. I'm a big fan of their new coach Brian Kelly. He built a dynasty at Grand Valley and then spent two seasons at Central Michigan where they broke a long stretch of losing seasons with consecutive winning seasons, topped off with the MAC title last year.
He inherits a talented Cincy team that does not need to learn how to win, a la the Chippewas he inherited. This was a great home team down the stretch last year, dumping South Florida and throttling Rutgers. Historically, they love home stands as they stand 15-5 ATS in the 2nd of back to back home games. They have 16 starters back this year, including a very stout defensive line that will give OSU's OL some trouble, expecially with the Beavers missing a key lineman out for injury.
From a technical ATS stanpoint, the Beavers typically struggle in that first away game of the year. And, September (and August) has not treated them well either. In the first month of the season since 2003, OSU is 4-10-1 ATS....9-16-1 since 2000 and both those records do include last week's cover vs Utah.
Now, here is a cool stat i picked up while researching this game that also favors Cincy: Teams who went bowling the year before who are dogs in their 2nd game of the season are 100-74-1 ATS since 1980, including 53-34-1 as single digit, non-conference dogs.
I am a little worried that Sammy Stroughter might play tonight for OSU and be an X-factor, but i also feel that people are underestimating what Cincy can do on offense. Kelly is a super offensive coach.
In fact, this Michigan fan feels he would be a great coach in Ann Arbor. Just saying.
So, i got the Bearcats tonight.
Good luck to everyone!
I was impressed with Oregon State last week. Loved their dedication to running it with Bernard. Loved the way their OL played. And loved the defense that knocked the Utes around, banging up and taking out their QB and RB.
That said, I like the Bearcats here. I'm a big fan of their new coach Brian Kelly. He built a dynasty at Grand Valley and then spent two seasons at Central Michigan where they broke a long stretch of losing seasons with consecutive winning seasons, topped off with the MAC title last year.
He inherits a talented Cincy team that does not need to learn how to win, a la the Chippewas he inherited. This was a great home team down the stretch last year, dumping South Florida and throttling Rutgers. Historically, they love home stands as they stand 15-5 ATS in the 2nd of back to back home games. They have 16 starters back this year, including a very stout defensive line that will give OSU's OL some trouble, expecially with the Beavers missing a key lineman out for injury.
From a technical ATS stanpoint, the Beavers typically struggle in that first away game of the year. And, September (and August) has not treated them well either. In the first month of the season since 2003, OSU is 4-10-1 ATS....9-16-1 since 2000 and both those records do include last week's cover vs Utah.
Now, here is a cool stat i picked up while researching this game that also favors Cincy: Teams who went bowling the year before who are dogs in their 2nd game of the season are 100-74-1 ATS since 1980, including 53-34-1 as single digit, non-conference dogs.
I am a little worried that Sammy Stroughter might play tonight for OSU and be an X-factor, but i also feel that people are underestimating what Cincy can do on offense. Kelly is a super offensive coach.
In fact, this Michigan fan feels he would be a great coach in Ann Arbor. Just saying.
So, i got the Bearcats tonight.
Good luck to everyone!
